[segolene royal] tricky time for her and for her party

The BBC seem to have put the salient points on the run-off vote here:

In the first round, Ms Royal gained 42.5% of the vote, Ms Aubry 34.7% and Mr Hamon 22.8%. Ms Royal - who had won a pre-convention ballot with 29% of members' votes - accused her rivals of clinging to "outdated" ways after they refused to rally behind her leadership bid. France's media have said the Socialists showed themselves at the Reims convention to be "ungovernable".

Segolene Royal is the best known, of course and wasn't far off securing the presidency last time. Of course she has the stigma of being a one time loser and being that much older next time round, also without the support of her former partner. Yet she seems the only viable alternative for the socialists in being able to bring the party into line long enough for the population to vote for them.

Le figaro says:

Le Parti socialiste est au moins sûr d'une chose : il sera dirigé pour la première fois par une femme ... En revanche, «Royal progresse nettement. Ces premiers chiffres montrent une dynamique en sa faveur. Si elle échoue au second tour, cet échec résoudra moins de problèmes au PS qu'il n'en créera de nouveaux», selon ce professeur à Sciences Po.

How far the outgoing Hamon's preferences flow to Aubry is the critical factor here. One key problem is that many don't wish to make a choice between what is seen as three bad choices:

C'est le cas par exemple du président du groupe PS à l'Assemblée, Jean-Marc Ayrault. «Je ne veux pas participer à l'aggravation des fractures que nous avons connues à Reims, a-t-il déclaré mardi. Je voterai jeudi et peut-être vendredi, mais je n'exprimerai pas publiquement de préférence.»

Sarko would not be altogether unhappy with the current state of the socialists in France.