Monday, November 05, 2007

[blogfocus monday] mixed blessings

1. Iain Dale is back blogging and I see it as a mixed blessing because now there is some sort of peace for both:
Eleanor was a rock in my life. I could tell her things I could tell no one else. She bailed me out on several occasions in my younger years when I was on my financial uppers. She gave me wise advice which was always appreciated. In short, she was the perfect Godmother. When I went too see her on Monday to say good-bye I admit I didn't want to go.

I was warned that she didn't look like the Eleanor we all knew and loved. I admit I was a coward, and just wanted to remember her as she always was - vibrant, laughing, funny, caring. I got to the door and didn't want to go into the room. My sister Tracey went in before me and as I was about to enter the room she gave me a look which said "you will be shocked by what you see". She was stronger than me.
2. The Vanishing American sees internet tools as a mixed blessing:
The Internet is a decidedly mixed blessing. People can (and do) track pseudonymous bloggers' identities down. However it is simply prudence and common sense not to post one's personal information, including full name, around the Internet promiscuously.

For those of us who blog, expressing politically incorrect and 'controversial' thoughts and ideas can expose us to some rather unpleasant consequences. And it may be justly argued that if you take a controversial stand, you must be willing to take the heat for it, and accept any difficulties you invite in swimming against the current.
3. Meeyauw remembers and that's a mixed blessing in itself:
I seldom post personal things but this will be the exception. I may even delete this post in the morning. I had a long nap today and dreamt a beautiful dream. I was in the home of someone unknown who was close to me. Other family was there. And in the door walked Neal, my late husband. He had not been dead after all. He had been lost. I could even feel him and smell him.

He looked exactly as he does in this photo [see site], taken only three years before he died. I took the photo on his Nikon non-digital camera as he taught me how to use it (the lessons never stuck).
The dream was so vivid and my grief began anew when I awoke and found it was not true.
4. David Farrer is doing what is commonly referred to as a number on me – a little James Higham mini-series. Though I'm flattered, it's a decidedly mixed blessing:
One of the greatest problems faced by Scotland is the comparatively high pay and pension benefits enjoyed by the 23% who do work in the state sector. Private companies (with higher than average UK transport costs) find it very difficult to offer the same packages as are available in a state sector that often has UK-wide wage agreements.

So the bright youngster chooses government employment and that is detrimental to economic growth. That's why I am perfectly happy to see Scotland's public sector expenditure slashed - quite apart from the fact that many of these jobs shouldn't exist at all.
5. Jack DM, through Cassandra's Politeia, writes of the mixed blessings of EU membership:
Since Romania entered the European Union on 1st January 2007 an estimated five hundred thousand Romanians crossed the Italian borders. That is five hundred thousand of the poorest, the most desperate, and the most determined to do whatever it takes to partake of Western prosperity.

Crime has exploded and shanty areas have sprung up like mushrooms in the Italian suburbs: the price for welcoming into the community a country that obviously isn't prepared to pay the same price.

[blogrolls] major changes at this site

I have made major changes to the rolls. This is still an ongoing work and names are still to be moved about so don't get out the shotgun yet.

Right Sidebar

This contains archives, MSM and reference links.

Left sidebar

This is the active column and uses colour codes for the various rolls according to a mix of many factors. It's not whether the blog is major, whether I like the blogger or even if the blog is good - it's for these reasons:

1. Interaction with me either through:

a. visiting here [seen through referrals, MyBlogLog and comments];
b. me visiting you;
c. testimonials;
d. guest posting;
e. e-mail correspondence;
f. invitations;
g. sense of community.

It's all of these together, not just two or three of them.

2. Running a comments section. Even if you're in a high roll for the above reasons, not running comments is a no-no with me, sorry and it would move you down.

3. Activity. For example, Notsaussure, if he were blogging, would be right up there but he's not - so he's not.

Known issues

The major problem with the new method is the 'silent reader', the one who doesn't show up in the referrals or any of the other indicators but still reads the blog somehow. An example is Tom Paine, who seemingly reads but doesn't 'visit' - it's beyond me.

Another factor is Blogpower. The whole roll is in the right sidebar, as is the Witanagemot but the bloggers in BP also appear in the left sidebar - all are there, according to their activity.

Lastly, it is a fluid list, changing daily in an upwards direction and weekly, on Sundays, in a downward.

It just seems fairer this way.

[mybloglog] yahoo takeover loses members

We've only just been discussing Facebook and now MyBlogLog is at it too. The takeover by Yahoo was a shock to me but as our Blogpower Mailing List is Yahoo, I didn't think too much of it. Then I read LFB_UK and am thinking seriously about MBL:
When I signed up to MBL, it was quick easy and needed no other information than an email account for verification and obviously a blog. It was nice easy and simple, rather like me who prefers to keep things in separate places and doesn't like to put all his eggs into one basket.

The ability to visit others sites and leave a tag saying you had been without actually leaving a comment, was ideal, it was great others bloggers knew I had been and had a link back to my site if they wished to follow it.


So my apologies to all those who still use the
MBL service, but its take over and insistence on having a Yahoo ID has irked me somewhat, and I am sorry I will no longer be a part of that community.

[fibonnachi] and the herd mentality

This post takes large chunks from an article by Carolyn Cohn, of Reuters, Friday, July 21, 2006, [with the sensationalism extracted] and adds from other sources:

Leonardo Fibonacci of Pisa published a book in 1202 which calculated the reproductive cycles of pairs of rabbits and showed that they followed a pattern 1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21 - a sequence where the sum of any two consecutive numbers equals the next highest number.

When the ratio of a number to the ones closest is taken over time, it tends to 1.618, which has now entered mythology as a magic or Golden Ratio. It is approximately:

1.6180339887

It enters the fields of music, sculpture, painting, book design and a host of other fields, including architecture. Therefore pyramid devotees will find it in the measurements there.

Even in my field of sailing, an approximation can be found. The usual height of the mast these days is 1.6 times the boat's length [my designs have two masts at 1:1]. Google
1.618 and it's interesting.

Accountant Ralph Nelson Elliott. the 1930s, developed his own theory based on Fibonacci numbers called Elliott wave analysis, which said the market followed a repetitive pattern, with each cycle made up of a five-wave rise followed by a three-wave fall.

Elizabeth Miller, of Redtower Research in Aberdeenshire, said the Dow Jones stock index collapse from the dot-com boom that peaked in 2000 followed a Fibonacci pattern.
"Fibonacci retracements work on pretty much everything, but they work particularly well with stock markets - it's natural mathematics."
61.8 is among the key price retracement targets for modern traders of currencies, stocks and commodities. The ratio is known as the "golden mean" for its universal applications. Another key retracement is 38.2 percent, which is 1 divided by 1.618 squared.

Midas Banned, on goldismoney, gives an example with HUI from March, 2003 then goes on to say:
To give credit where credit is due, this observation was first discussed in detail by W. D. Gann (1878-1955). Since the late great Gann had only a slide rule, not a calculator, he used the 5/8 level, which is .625, and almost exactly matches .618......."
Tom Pelc, chief technical strategist at RBS Financial Markets in London, finds Fibonacci patterns in recent moves in London's FTSE stock index.
"If you look at the FTSE's decline in May and June and its bounce since then, it's struggling right now at exactly the 61.8 percent retracement," he said in mid-July.
However, detractors, as you'd expect, scoff at this:

Use of Fibonacci can become something of a self-fulfilling prophecy for stock markets where there is a crowd mentality and where everyone starts to watch out for the same levels.
"It's amazingly common to read sentences written by technical analysts involving Fibonacci ratios," said Roy Batchelor, professor of banking and finance at Cass Business School in the City.

"The evidence on this is contrary. People will show you a picture where it happened, not the 100 pictures where it did not happen -- but it's got entertainment value.

We suffer from the illusion of control, that things have to have an explanation - people hate randomness."

Sunday, November 04, 2007

[king tut] will 2007 be like 1972 and 1923

"Death will come to those who disturb the sleep of the Pharaoh" was written over the tomb.

You know, the unsensational version of the story here reads almost as well as the sensational. However, time for some coincidences:

* Lord Carnarvon consulted mediums who all said not to enter Tut's tomb.

* 47 days after entering the tomb Carnarvon died at Hotel Continental in Cairo. The cause of death was unknown but a mosquito had bitten him where Tut himself had a cheek mark.

* Carnarvon's dog in England became agitated and died at the same time.

* The lights went out in Cairo for several minutes.

* Arthur Maze, another of the archeologists, died shortly afterwards, at the same hotel, complaining of tiredness and went into coma, never to come out.

* Archibald Reid, the team's radiologist returned to England after complaining of exhaustion. He died shortly afterwards.

* George Gould, friend of Carnarvon then travelled to Egypt, visited the tomb, collapsed of fever and died.

* Carnarvon's personal secretary, Richard Bethell, died of heart failure four months later.

* Howard Carter seemingly died of natural causes.

* Lord Carnarvon's half-brother committed suicide. The medics claimed temporary insanity as the cause.

* Mohammed Ibrahim, Egypt's director of antiquities, died in 1966. He begged Egyptian authorities not to let some of the relics leave the country for an exhibition in Paris. A car ran him down and he died.

* Richard Adamson, the expedition security chief not present at the opening, was the last survivor. In 1969 he reiterated his rejection of the "curse theory".

* His wife died less than 24 hours later, his son survived an aircraft crash, but broke his back.

* Adamson gave an interview on British television where he restated his denial most vehemently.

* His taxi crashed later that evening on his way from the studio and Adamson was almost decapitated by a passing truck.

* He gave another interview: "Until now I refused to believe that my family's misfortunes had anything to do with the curse. But now I am not so sure".

* In 1972, Tut and Co were flown to London with a Royal Air Force plane. Gamal Mehrez, Ibrahim's successor in Cairo ridiculed "curse talk" and died before the plane took off.

* Flight Lieutenant Rick Laurie suffered a heart-attack in 1976 and died, after having complained of "horrible visions and nightmares".

* Flight engineer, Ken Parkinson lived through heart-attacks each year at the same time the flight had commenced, until his fatal attack in 1978.

* Flight Lieutenant Jim Webb lost everything he owned during a fire.

My keyboard's keys have just changed positions, i.e. symbols are under their wrong keys since I began typing this and the internet just switched itself off.

All coincidence, of course.

* Now, "85 years later to the day after the pharoah's tomb was discovered", archaeologists have not only removed the face mask but also the linen shroud around the body. They claim it's to "preserve the body".

Am I the only one to think that this shows the same lack of respect our gallant leaders are currently showing us? Perhaps I'm mistaken - what's respect for the dead when there's a lot of money to be made?

Is Tut in good hands or is he in the hands of those he shouldn't be? How would he feel about being on public display like this? Would you like to see your grandfather's dead body exhumed and put on display, unadorned?

Will you go to look upon Tut uncovered?

[weblog awards] help us stop neil clark

Please, please, please, fellow readers - give Steve and myself enough votes to head off Neil Clark! We're not asking to win - the luscious lovely Kickette has that wrapped up as the greatest UK Blog ever, over Iain [who's just suffered a personal loss] but Neil Clark - help us to stop him.

:)

[snow] sky's full but turning to water

Can't claim our situation is like the one in the pic yet.

It's been wet snowing today, the air full of it but turning to water the moment it hits the path. It's also not sticking to branches, as in the photo. It's a rarity for that to happen in this climate because it goes dry so quickly and the powder fails to stick.

It's a small difference between our snow scenes and the traditional European postcard image. A nice summary is on the NSIDC site.

The last decent Labour man?

John Mortimer's writing room

A guest post from the esteemed Tom Paine on a man who does it his way - John Mortimer:

How the British Establishment hates John Mortimer. Mortimer has consistently critiqued the Blair/Brown Axis’s assaults on our freedoms. He has defended the presumption of innocence, which his most beloved character never failed to proclaim as “the golden thread that runs through British jurisprudence.” Though it is at the very heart of our civilisation - it is now nothing but a profound irritation to the men of power.

Horace Rumpole may, like Sherlock Holmes, have walked the pages of books rather than Literature. Worse, he appeared first as a character in TV comedy. Like Holmes, however, he transcends his origins. He is that rarity, a character with a life of his own. We all know what Rumpole would say and how he would behave in any situation. Rumpole is no suave hero, but he stands alone in modern British culture as a character who believes in freedom under the rule of law, not the terrifying "social justice" so beloved of our sparrow-brained politicians. Mortimer created a character who will live as long as English is read and the principles of the Common Law are understood.

Mortimer will be remembered for breathing life into Horace, but also as a humane, kindly, liberal man. This is more than enough motivation for Christopher Hart to do the most amazing hatchet job in the Times, while purporting to review Valerie Groves’ biography of this flawed, but charming man.

As ever, glimpses are to be seen of the Cromwellism that (much though I personally revere the memory of "our chief of men") I have to acknowledge underlies much that is wrong in British thought. Mortimer’s “affairs of the loins, rather than the heart” might equally have been characterized as free-thinking rejection of bourgeois values, had he not strayed from the paths of Socialist righteousness. How did he stray? He drew the lines of the State’s power rather closer to the individual than you or I might like, but still short of jackboot range.

The quote the sub-editors selected to summarise the attack on this innocent is telling;
The worst aspects of human nature are laughed away and the dark side is consistently whitewashed
Give me friends who laugh away my failings and look to the good in me, rather than the bad. Spare me, I beg, from the puritan who sees only the bad in me, and relishes the excuse it gives to make me a prisoner “for my own good.” In despising Mortimer, the British left/liberal statists let slip how much they despise us all. We are just potential transgressors to them, guilty until proven innocent.

That is the thread that runs through their thought and it is far from golden.

[micro-control 4] some eu plans for england and beyond


The disintegration of privacy within the sphere of the EU comes next post. This post just restates many things already known vis a vis England and might disappoint, in that it presents not a lot new.

So, first up, we're all agreed, aren't we, that the EU has England broken into nine administrative divisions, as seen on the map above? The only question is, post-Lisbon, when precisely this starts.

These nine regions, along with the Scottish and Welsh regions, have already entered the educational field both at senior level and junior as the current situation.

Further information is available here, here, here, and here, just to post a few. [Some government site links might not now work as they have been progressively deleted.]

Each region is a discreet adminstrative area with its own assembly already in situ, ready to activate. This much is easily accessible from government docs on the web. Winston Leonard commented, on October 15th, at my site:
You have to remember that the Foreign and Commonwealth Office will disappear under the EU Constitution, with Brussels dealing with Foreign affairs, policy, and overseas embassies. In all probability, the Senior official concerned will be the one relocating to Brussels in 2010.
Same rule would apply to International Development, another area that will lose out to Brussels. So who will relocate? Malloch-Brown, or Milliband, or both?
The move to regionalization needs to be pretty well completed by post 2009 and it can be better observed in local issues, rather than at the national level, for example, on roads:
The new plan will be to let local governments price or otherwise regulate their bits of the road network as they see fit. So far the main example of this is the London congestion charge, which is enforced by using controversial Automatic Numberplate Recognition (ANPR) technology to track vehicle movements.

Predictably, in the wake of recent clownish "carbomb" attempts, the government has granted terror police routine access to the London tracking system. This has confirmed the widely-held view that no matter the initial purpose of any vehicle-tracking technology, it will swiftly become an automated surveillance tool.
Naturally, once the populace is aware of what is happening, there will be a great deal of unrest - the blogosphere transferred to the general community but this has been factored in. An example is Lisbon itself:
Poland also wants to make sure that the charter of fundamental rights, which guarantees the right to strike among other measures, cannot apply in domestic courts. This is an opt-out already secured by the UK. Some in Brussels have questioned its legality but David Miliband, the British foreign secretary, termed it “silicon-sealed”.

The aim is to have the reform treaty ratified by all 27 member states ahead of elections to the European parliament in 2009.
To enforce both it's "entity" as a continental bloc and to snuff out local dissent, the Merkel initiated pan-EU militsia is already in training. And translated from the original here:
It will be the opening day of the command of Central European Gendarmerie (Eurogendfor), intranazionale new force established by the European Union in order to carry out "police missions in operations of crisis."
They'll naturally need some operational theatre of war for training so:
The EU is to examine the possibility of deploying a 3,000-strong force to Chad to contain spill-over from the Darfur conflict in neighbouring Sudan, foreign ministers agreed on Monday.
All of which is fine, of course, if the EU is a philanthropic and trustworthy body which looks after the best interests of its citizens. If that's the case, then the administrative infrastructure being rushed into place, with Common Purpose leadership, is in the best interests of all.

The litmus test, it seems to me, is whether you can believe the word of the EU. Ellee Seymour throws some light on that here, referring to Mandelson’s reneging on ACP trade agreements in favour of regional agreements.

Do read the whole piece to get some sort of idea how you feel about EU transparency and honesty.

Those whio have not already sighed and clicked out might be interested in one take on what the eventual plan entails. I don't mean the EU-ization of what was once Britain but the overall plan.

This is as good an article as any but the heading summary below does not do justice to the full explanation given at the site. Again, do read the whole thing. The process goes something like this:
1st Signpost: The Registration of Populations

2nd Signpost: The Creation of a Global Identification System

3rd Signpost: The Creation of an Infrastructure for the Global Surveillance of Movement

4th Signpost: The Creation of an Infrastructure for the Global Surveillance of Electronic Communications and Financial Transactions

5th Signpost: The Convergence of National and International Databases

6th Signpost: The Spread of the "Risk Assessment" Model

7th Signpost: Security-Force Integration and the Loss of Sovereign Checks and Balances

8th Signpost: The Corporate Security Complex

9th Signpost: The Erosion of Democratic Values

10th Signpost: Rendition, Torture, Death
Do you think this has gone off the deep end? Well, let me go further. The type of incompetence revealed by Dizzie in the losing of 15 000 personal records by courier I simply do not accept as accidental. Please see part 2 of this series.

Notes
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Part 5
Part 6
Part 7

[racism] we need to be careful about its definition

That promised article is coming but first, more controversy [H/T Witagamenot] on immigration:
Cameron was irritated by the behaviour of Hastilow, who will contest the marginal seat of Halesowen and Rowley Regis, which the Tories must win if they are to regain power, after he mounted a strong defence of his article. 'It is in line with Conservative policy,' he told The Observer. 'Uncontrolled immigration will do this country great damage. In the last 10 years we have had more or less uncontrolled immigration.'

But Hastilow won strong support from his local Tory association. 'Most certainly, yes,' said Mary Docker, chairman of the Halesowen and Rowley Regis association, when asked by The Observer if she would stand by Hastilow. 'He is a down-to-earth man who talks to people and doesn't talk at them. He is representative of the views of many Black Country people.'
My view is quite simple, you might say oversimplistic but I'd disagree:
If the racial, religious or national grouping has a history of non-assimilation into the local culture, then prospective immigrants need one-by-one scrutiny and interview as to their absorption into alien sub-communities within the larger nation.

This should also apply to those who have already got through the net.

If the grouping has a history of assimilation [e.g. a Canadian settling in Britain], then they get fast tracked but are subject to the usual police checks, vocational suitability etc.
Just seems common sense to me.