[blogrolls] major changes at this site

I have made major changes to the rolls. This is still an ongoing work and names are still to be moved about so don't get out the shotgun yet.

Right Sidebar

This contains archives, MSM and reference links.

Left sidebar

This is the active column and uses colour codes for the various rolls according to a mix of many factors. It's not whether the blog is major, whether I like the blogger or even if the blog is good - it's for these reasons:

1. Interaction with me either through:

a. visiting here [seen through referrals, MyBlogLog and comments];
b. me visiting you;
c. testimonials;
d. guest posting;
e. e-mail correspondence;
f. invitations;
g. sense of community.

It's all of these together, not just two or three of them.

2. Running a comments section. Even if you're in a high roll for the above reasons, not running comments is a no-no with me, sorry and it would move you down.

3. Activity. For example, Notsaussure, if he were blogging, would be right up there but he's not - so he's not.

Known issues

The major problem with the new method is the 'silent reader', the one who doesn't show up in the referrals or any of the other indicators but still reads the blog somehow. An example is Tom Paine, who seemingly reads but doesn't 'visit' - it's beyond me.

Another factor is Blogpower. The whole roll is in the right sidebar, as is the Witanagemot but the bloggers in BP also appear in the left sidebar - all are there, according to their activity.

Lastly, it is a fluid list, changing daily in an upwards direction and weekly, on Sundays, in a downward.

It just seems fairer this way.

[mybloglog] yahoo takeover loses members

We've only just been discussing Facebook and now MyBlogLog is at it too. The takeover by Yahoo was a shock to me but as our Blogpower Mailing List is Yahoo, I didn't think too much of it. Then I read LFB_UK and am thinking seriously about MBL:

When I signed up to MBL, it was quick easy and needed no other information than an email account for verification and obviously a blog. It was nice easy and simple, rather like me who prefers to keep things in separate places and doesn't like to put all his eggs into one basket.

The ability to visit others sites and leave a tag saying you had been without actually leaving a comment, was ideal, it was great others bloggers knew I had been and had a link back to my site if they wished to follow it.

So my apologies to all those who still use the MBL service, but its take over and insistence on having a Yahoo ID has irked me somewhat, and I am sorry I will no longer be a part of that community.

[fibonnachi] and the herd mentality

This post takes large chunks from an article by Carolyn Cohn, of Reuters, Friday, July 21, 2006, [with the sensationalism extracted] and adds from other sources:

Leonardo Fibonacci of Pisa published a book in 1202 which calculated the reproductive cycles of pairs of rabbits and showed that they followed a pattern 1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21 - a sequence where the sum of any two consecutive numbers equals the next highest number.

When the ratio of a number to the ones closest is taken over time, it tends to 1.618, which has now entered mythology as a magic or Golden Ratio. It is approximately:

1.6180339887

It enters the fields of music, sculpture, painting, book design and a host of other fields, including architecture. Therefore pyramid devotees will find it in the measurements there.

Even in my field of sailing, an approximation can be found. The usual height of the mast these days is 1.6 times the boat's length [my designs have two masts at 1:1]. Google 1.618 and it's interesting.

Accountant Ralph Nelson Elliott. the 1930s, developed his own theory based on Fibonacci numbers called Elliott wave analysis, which said the market followed a repetitive pattern, with each cycle made up of a five-wave rise followed by a three-wave fall.

Elizabeth Miller, of Redtower Research in Aberdeenshire, said the Dow Jones stock index collapse from the dot-com boom that peaked in 2000 followed a Fibonacci pattern.

"Fibonacci retracements work on pretty much everything, but they work particularly well with stock markets - it's natural mathematics."

61.8 is among the key price retracement targets for modern traders of currencies, stocks and commodities. The ratio is known as the "golden mean" for its universal applications. Another key retracement is 38.2 percent, which is 1 divided by 1.618 squared.

Midas Banned, on goldismoney, gives an example with HUI from March, 2003 then goes on to say:

To give credit where credit is due, this observation was first discussed in detail by W. D. Gann (1878-1955). Since the late great Gann had only a slide rule, not a calculator, he used the 5/8 level, which is .625, and almost exactly matches .618......."

Tom Pelc, chief technical strategist at RBS Financial Markets in London, finds Fibonacci patterns in recent moves in London's FTSE stock index.

"If you look at the FTSE's decline in May and June and its bounce since then, it's struggling right now at exactly the 61.8 percent retracement," he said in mid-July.

However, detractors, as you'd expect, scoff at this:

Use of Fibonacci can become something of a self-fulfilling prophecy for stock markets where there is a crowd mentality and where everyone starts to watch out for the same levels.

"It's amazingly common to read sentences written by technical analysts involving Fibonacci ratios," said Roy Batchelor, professor of banking and finance at Cass Business School in the City.

"The evidence on this is contrary. People will show you a picture where it happened, not the 100 pictures where it did not happen -- but it's got entertainment value.

We suffer from the illusion of control, that things have to have an explanation - people hate randomness."

[king tut] will 2007 be like 1972 and 1923

"Death will come to those who disturb the sleep of the Pharaoh" was written over the tomb.

You know, the unsensational version of the story here reads almost as well as the sensational. However, time for some coincidences:

* Lord Carnarvon consulted mediums who all said not to enter Tut's tomb.

* 47 days after entering the tomb Carnarvon died at Hotel Continental in Cairo. The cause of death was unknown but a mosquito had bitten him where Tut himself had a cheek mark.

* Carnarvon's dog in England became agitated and died at the same time.

* The lights went out in Cairo for several minutes.

* Arthur Maze, another of the archeologists, died shortly afterwards, at the same hotel, complaining of tiredness and went into coma, never to come out.

* Archibald Reid, the team's radiologist returned to England after complaining of exhaustion. He died shortly afterwards.

* George Gould, friend of Carnarvon then travelled to Egypt, visited the tomb, collapsed of fever and died.

* Carnarvon's personal secretary, Richard Bethell, died of heart failure four months later.

* Howard Carter seemingly died of natural causes.

* Lord Carnarvon's half-brother committed suicide. The medics claimed temporary insanity as the cause.

* Mohammed Ibrahim, Egypt's director of antiquities, died in 1966. He begged Egyptian authorities not to let some of the relics leave the country for an exhibition in Paris. A car ran him down and he died.

* Richard Adamson, the expedition security chief not present at the opening, was the last survivor. In 1969 he reiterated his rejection of the "curse theory".

* His wife died less than 24 hours later, his son survived an aircraft crash, but broke his back.

* Adamson gave an interview on British television where he restated his denial most vehemently.

* His taxi crashed later that evening on his way from the studio and Adamson was almost decapitated by a passing truck.

* He gave another interview: "Until now I refused to believe that my family's misfortunes had anything to do with the curse. But now I am not so sure".

* In 1972, Tut and Co were flown to London with a Royal Air Force plane. Gamal Mehrez, Ibrahim's successor in Cairo ridiculed "curse talk" and died before the plane took off.

* Flight Lieutenant Rick Laurie suffered a heart-attack in 1976 and died, after having complained of "horrible visions and nightmares".

* Flight engineer, Ken Parkinson lived through heart-attacks each year at the same time the flight had commenced, until his fatal attack in 1978.

* Flight Lieutenant Jim Webb lost everything he owned during a fire.

My keyboard's keys have just changed positions, i.e. symbols are under their wrong keys since I began typing this and the internet just switched itself off.

All coincidence, of course.

* Now, "85 years later to the day after the pharoah's tomb was discovered", archaeologists have not only removed the face mask but also the linen shroud around the body. They claim it's to "preserve the body".

Am I the only one to think that this shows the same lack of respect our gallant leaders are currently showing us? Perhaps I'm mistaken - what's respect for the dead when there's a lot of money to be made?

Is Tut in good hands or is he in the hands of those he shouldn't be? How would he feel about being on public display like this? Would you like to see your grandfather's dead body exhumed and put on display, unadorned?

Will you go to look upon Tut uncovered?

[weblog awards] help us stop neil clark

Please, please, please, fellow readers - give Steve and myself enough votes to head off Neil Clark! We're not asking to win - the luscious lovely Kickette has that wrapped up as the greatest UK Blog ever, over Iain [who's just suffered a personal loss] but Neil Clark - help us to stop him.

:)

[snow] sky's full but turning to water

Can't claim our situation is like the one in the pic yet.

It's been wet snowing today, the air full of it but turning to water the moment it hits the path. It's also not sticking to branches, as in the photo. It's a rarity for that to happen in this climate because it goes dry so quickly and the powder fails to stick.

It's a small difference between our snow scenes and the traditional European postcard image. A nice summary is on the NSIDC site.