[westminster] why labour could well be returned

Back to more mundane things and there's a storm brewing in the party political sphere.

1. Those who can see beyond party politics see that the EU is poised to pounce once Irish Lisbon 2 is passed, which they are obviously confident will be signed, otherwise, they would not have pressed for it. What is meant by pounce?

Regionalization of course, with the regional assemblies already in place. It matters not that the country rejected it last time, it's a fait accompli even now and EU money goes to the regions as a first priority. On top of that, it's aided and abetted from the ODPM via Common Purpose.

So, in other words, that is ready to go but it also needs the population to be fed up to the back teeth of Westminster politics, in order to usher in the new devolution, only partially at first, with no ostensible loss of sovereignty. The idea is that Westminster is scandal riddled, e.g. the expenses scandal, Brown's incompetence and Cameron's ineffectual Westminster club games. The EU will fix the mess.

2. Into this steps Dan Hannan who is virtually the only pollie, apart from David Davis and possibly John Redwood, [forgive me if I've left a few out], speaking for the small "c" conservative, the conservative libertarian small government type.

Now, a glance at the UKIP, LPUK and a major section of the Tories shows that these people are not, in general, numpties. In other words, this side of politics is far more likely to fragment and split off, while the Labour numpties will continue to vote for them no matter what state they get the country into.

Therefore, ignoring the by-elections, which have always been protest votes and don't really correspond to general election results, the Labour vote is going to be, on the day, fairly stable. As the voting system is first past the post, it matters not whether they have 22% of the vote if no other party gets more than that.

Right, you say, the conservative vote is considerably more than that at present.

Yes it is - at present. However, in steps Dan Hannan and as Harry Hook says:

I can't figure out whether he's being naively open, shrewd, or just has a death wish. Nonetheless... Dan's got some guts... as well as brains.

Everyone knows he is shooting from the hip and has now invoked Enoch, which is a particular trigger that certain conservatives are not averse to. David Cameron does not really know what to do with him. If he follows Brown's goading and disciplines Hannan, the question is - for what? There are many disgruntled Tories and these sorts of buzzwords start people thinking.

Therefore, Cameron does nothing but that doesn't look good in pro-Cameron Tory eyes. Possibly nothing untoward would happen before the election and Hannan would be spoken to by those inside - therefore collective responsibility reigns and the Tories come to power.

If it were to be handled badly though, Hannan would have no choice but to move out and sitting there are the UKIP and LPUK which, though the policies have differences, might be galvanized by someone of Hannan's stature representing the small "c" conservatives. It would represent the best chance for the smaller parties to find an accommodation anyway - don't forget that FPTP is no good for small parties.

If Hannan left, there'd be quite an exodus of thinking conservatives, even though no one is so far the recipient of hero worship - it's not Nu-Labour and Blair, with it's gaggle of Babes - that he could count on leading some new united party. Therefore, the split in the right wing ranks plays right into Labour's hands and they might just cross the line ahead at the general election.

That would be unthinkable for all the non-numpties out there in Britland but it is a possibility, aggravated by a devolved Scotland and partially devolved Wales plus ... and this is the big plus ... the EU Monster waiting in the background to pick up the pieces.

3. You can reject this thesis, of course but one thing I think you can't deny is that 2010 will be volatile and Britain will once again become interesting to the world, politically.

And don't forget the Parliament for England campaign.