Monday, July 06, 2009

[afghanistan] most puzzling strategy


Don't get me wrong, the objectives might be laudable - stop the opium trade, starve the Taliban, wean the Afghans off these terrorists.

It does seem to have been a strange way of going about things though. Why, when you're tied up in Iraq and faced with Iran, would you commit troops to Afghanistan, where no invading, non-Muslim nation has ever got anywhere for long?

Is it really a belief in the invincibility of Uncle Sam?

On the ground in the south, the poppies are still supplying 90% of the world's heroin, Afghanistan's president, Hamid Karzai, is "sometimes ridiculed as the "mayor of Kabul"," having little influence outside the capital and the Taliban have been barely dented in overall strategic terms.

Now there's a new strategy:

"Our focus is not the Taliban," Brigadier General Lawrence Nicholson was quoted as telling his officers before they moved into Helmand. "Our focus must be on getting this government back on its feet. We're doing this very differently," Nicholson said, according to the Washington Post. "We're going to be with the people. We're not going to drive to work. We're going to walk to work."

What's 20 000 troops, too late, for goodness sake? If you're going to invade another nation, for whatever reason, you first make sure you're not headed for an economic recession, you deploy half a million and you give them the best equipment and support. You get in, achieve your targets and then depart.

This is not what the U.S. policy is. The policy is clearly to maintain a long term presence in troublespots such as Iraq and Afghanistan, with Iran possibly on the agenda, in order to gradually win the people over against the 'terrorists'. And they hope to do this on a skeletal army presence.

Also, the U.S. doesn't have a great track record of propping up puppet governments when there is a powerful enemy using guerilla tactics and they don't have a great track record of winning over locals. One would have thought Vietnam would have passed through the minds of the Pentagon and the White House.

All that is happening is that the few troops over there are overstretched and couldn't cope with a coordinated drive by the whole Taliban if they wanted to. The assault so far on the poppy fields has put farmers out of business but left the Taliban largely intact, regrouped and with connections within Pakistan and elsewhere.

Russia was no great shakes itself in Afghanistan but I do recall a couple of years ago, discussing this with a public official who smiled at the U.S. strategy. He said, "Everyone's against the U.S. Whoever is the enemy of the U.S. will gain sympathy from other nations and from China."

Let's face it - it's the U.S. [who seem to think they're doing it alone], Britain, Canada and Australia [excuse me if I left out some other commonwealth nations] against the rest. The targets and the strategy, particularly at a time of internal economic stringency, need to be thought through far more clearly.

I didn't realize that EU Referendum was also covering the issue. Well worth a read.

10 comments:

  1. We're there because we're there because we're there because we're there.

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  2. Poppy cultivation has gone up 2000% since the US presence.

    The whole plan is around resources, and resource denial, plain and simple.

    And the brainwashed troops and public go along.

    The fat-arsed, armchair generals in the MOD fuck the troops over equipment in order to stir sentiment in joe public.

    All part of the CFR inspired "perpetual war".

    The US and UK are global pariahs.

    Pakistan is requesting $billions to re-settle the 2.5millions displaced by action against the Taliban in Pakistan.

    Just think 2.5million more willing recruits for terrorism.

    The whole issue is driven by fuckwit thinking.

    China will be the winner.

    Last thrashings of bankrupt nations and bankrupt policies.

    Titanic was accidental, or at worst, bad judgment. This is deliberate madness, with particularly evil motivations.

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  3. You need only look at the geography of Afghanistan to realise that nobody - not Alexander the Great, not the British Empire in its heyday, not the Soviet Empire in its heyday, not the US military, certainly not the current Afghan "government" is going to have the least chance of actually controlling it.

    It's a country made up of deserts and huge mountains, much of it impenetrable by modern (or any) vehicles or technology, and inhabited a race of ferocious warriors who care little for death and unite only temporarily and only against a foreign invader.

    We've tried before, we really should have learned.

    Let us just leave them alone.

    Oh, and let's stop having a "war on drugs", too; that doesn't work either.

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  4. We tried leaving them alone. It worked out very badly. What is needed is war by other means.

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  5. What type of "war by other means" do you suggest, Xlbrl?

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  6. Not eliminating the poppy crop was a guarantee that we would fail there. This is not difficult to do from the air in Afganistan, it is only that we did not have the will. That would be a start. Much would follow from that, but most of all our resolve to deal with things as they are.
    Listen to the colonels on the ground to decide what forms war and peace must take, never the generals. Simply being faced in the right direction breeds its own success.

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  7. But the Taliban, pre US had almost eliminated the poppy crop, not that much else they did would help the general population, but I take your point.

    Hearts and minds again I suppose, although a drastic switch in the short term would increase the death toll of the west in a dramatic fashion, given the lack of trust amongst the idigenes/Taliban.

    But, as I understand it, and I could be wrong, JP Morgan running the back-office for the bank of Baghdad, handles most of the proceeds of poppy refinement going to Europe via the newly freed Kosova, and this presents a large conflict of interest for the US.

    Strange times indeed!

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