Tuesday, September 16, 2008

[the power of people] separate yet together


Firstly, Ordo asks today:

Are we seeing the beginning of another Great Depression?

We're certainly on the brink of one, but whether we totter over the edge or not depends on how world governments respond to the current financial crisis. Unfortunately, nobody really has a clue what to do.

Martin Kelly has similar thoughts.

Ordo, I see it, not as being dependent on what governments do but on what WE do, as people. Guthrum's and Wat Tyler's piece touch on the matter and David Farrer quotes Vox Day:

This isn't a failure of free market capitalism. It's precisely the opposite, it's the failure of government-controlled faux market capitalism.

An example of good intervention, on the other hand, is the way that a threatened blogger can be supported. Read Alwyn's piece on this:

Last year there was a blog consensus that the blogosphere would stand up to rich people trying to bully individual bloggers when Asmanov went after Bloggerheads, where is that blog support for Kez [Kezia Duggdale ]?

There are other issues as well, such as social engineering [read Richard Havers on this] and people out there who can put things so much better in one paragraph than I can in five strung out posts, such as:

Ultimately a Fabian State will be a “Failed State”, under UN current definitions, given the administration costs associated with a deliberately destabilised civil society, and the absence of industry and jobs resulting from a high taxation bureaucratic regime that administers lorry-loads of “sand” to the economic “cogs”. The nature of this failed state must necessarily be militaristic.

Here is another beauty:

Incompetent state structures have been put in place, at monumental expense, to substitute for the State Destroyed structures, those of the “family”, primarily, and continue to grow their legal mandate for ever more state intrusion into the personal lives of the citizens, all in the name of social cohesion, which the Fabian thought processes have set out to, and succeeded in, destroying/undermining in the first place.

Anon now waxes lyrical but also to the point:

Imagine that, like some kind of science fiction dictator, you intended to rule the world. You would probably have pinned over your desk a list something like this:

[1] Eliminate personal knowledge.
Make it hard for people to know about themselves, how they function, what a human being is, or how a human fits into wider, natural systems. This will make it, impossible for the human to separate natural from artificial, real from unreal. You provide the answers to all questions.

[2] Eliminate points of comparison.
Comparisons can be found in earlier societies, older language forms and cultural artefacts, including print media. Eliminate or museumize indigenous cultures, wilderness and nonhuman life forms. Re-create internal human experience—instincts, thoughts, and spontaneous, varied feelings—so that it will not evoke the past.

[3] Separate people from each other.
Reduce interpersonal communication through life-styles that emphasise separateness. When people gather together, be sure it is for a prearranged experience that occupies all their attention at once. Spectator sports are excellent, so are circuses, elections, and any spectacles in which focus is outward and interpersonal exchange is subordinated to mass experience.

[4] Unify experience, especially encouraging mental experience at the expense of sensory experience.
Separate people's minds from their bodies, idealise the mind. Sensory experience cannot be eliminated totally, so it should be driven into narrow areas. An emphasis on sex as opposed to sense may be useful because it is powerful enough to pass for the whole thing and it has a placebo effect.

[5] Occupy the mind.
Once people are isolated in their minds, fill the brain with prearranged experience and thought. Content is less important than the fact of the mind being filled. Free-roaming thought is to be discouraged at all costs, because it is difficult to control.

[6] Encourage drug use.
Recognise that total repression is impossible and so expressions of revolt must be contained on the personal level. Drugs will fill in the cracks of dissatisfaction, making people unresponsive to organised expressions of resistance.

[7] Centralise knowledge and information.
Having isolated people from each other and minds from bodies - at this point whatever comes from outside will enter directly into all brains at the same time with great power and believability.

[8] Redefine happiness and the meaning of life in terms of new and increasingly uprooted philosophy.
Anything makes sense in a void. Formal mind structuring is simple. Most important, avoid naturalistic philosophies; they lead to uncontrollable awareness. An emphasis on sex as opposed to sense may be useful because it is powerful enough to pass for the whole thing and it has a placebo effect.

They may well be the Statist's Standing Orders but in Britain, say, there is also a strong innate, quiet determination within the indigenous people to passively resist this seemingly all-powerful push and ultimately one has to believe that the human being will win out and here's where I part from my humanistic brothers in that I firmly believe in that biblical expression 'ye are gods'.

This expression does not say, IMHO, that each of us is an island in him/herself but rather that there is a bit of the deity in each of us, connected to the whole and unable to exist on its own, just as the hand or foot cannot exist without the rest of the body and mind. I believe that that is what caused all the trouble way back when it was discovered what G-d was up to - recreating really good things in a package called Man.

I believe the primary purpose of a certain force I nether fully understand nor wish to understand was to separate man from his higher self, to bestialize him, to do dirt on him and this force has legions of accolytes because it is the province of the weak-willed, the ones who prefer the easy solution and are attracted by bells and whistles.

That explains a lot, such as why Man sees himself as controlling his destiny when he can't, why he sees himself at the centre of his universe, when he's not, why he destroys so easily but can only build under certain circumstances. We don't like to see ourselves as mere cogs in the machine but people like the Australian aborigines find no problem in that, in being at one with the whole of nature. We don't like to see ourselves as the star's tennis balls, do we?

Why are we satisfied with staying in our little boxes and not relating neighbour to neighbour? Get down to specifics and look at WW2 or any other conflict where the people have ultimately won out, [only to go under again].

Right here is where some of us part ways, I suppose.

The socialist construct is that social cohesion, being such a powerful force, is best served by mindless Socialism, as Anon described above, of forcing people to combine in ultimately unproductive and inefficient ventures, whilst killing off incentive.

Some of us, though, point to two things:

1. the silent [divine?] power which is produced when humans combine for good purposes, such power, by definition, only operating well when it is free of constraints and yokes and is a voluntary combining of individual powers;

2. the vital importance in humans being able to pursue personal goals in an atmosphere which encourages that and supports it without applying constraints. So if you've worked all your life for certain things, the politics of envy is abandoned. Rather than glance enviously across at our neighbour, we try to do well ourselves and find people are willing to help people who try to help themselves.

The State is powerful and creates it's own new autocratic entity to sustain itself but the divinity inside people who combine for good always ultimately wins out, though at a terrible cost.

Phew! [What did I just have for breakfast?]

10 comments:

  1. Fabulous post and not just because you mention me! It reminds me of the great 'New Deal' championed by FDR. Ultimately most people consider it failed on many levels, but it did give ordinary people hope. It's hope that's in short supply these days.

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  2. Disagree about the hope thing, every morning people get up and go to work, on a basic level they are looking to provide the basics food on the table and a roof over their head that is only done out of hope, we all know that this crisis will pass, the great depression in the thirties shook out the inefficient smoke stack victorian industries, and replaced them with other industries.

    The misery of the thirties was caused by the politicians,plus Nazis, Communists portraying that capitalism had failed, therefore the State must direct all production and the price was personal freedom.

    The crash out of the ERM proved it and this banking debacle proves it, that the state is powerless, my hope is that the people will recognise finally that there is not such thing as a free lunch on credit, and we will have to direct our energies and finances to preserving our quality of life, not bow down before the God - Cash

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  3. My great fear is that Government medling is going to stop the economy readjusting properly.

    Making the hardship longer and worse.

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  4. James, we are in the bowels of a Kondratieff winter.
    Google “ - Kondratieff Winter”

    “Ludwig von Mises” was the Austrian Professor who tutored “Prof.Hayek”, he founded what is known as the Austrian School of Economics.

    That school has some pretty harsh things to say about the current Kondratieff Winter, caused by the excesses of the Fiat currency system, principally by the “Yen Carry Trade”, and the Fed., and Greenspans encouragement of dispersal globally of toxic paper.

    Marry Kondratieff, and von Mises, as is now, and you get a very toxic cocktail.

    The destruction of freehold asset values, and the global, but mostly G7, total freeze-up of debt, (credit), are extremely deflationary, and is common to both “Schools” currently.

    Currencies, and economies are collapsing, rapidly.

    Sirens are currently sounding for inflation, but inflation is a lagging indicator, and is being squeezed out of the economy, (at least in the G7) rapidly.

    Under a Fiat currency system, deflation must be beaten, as it destroys everything, and will do currently, no matter how fast money is “printed”, and in spite of the “real world negative interest rates currently in the G7”. Fiat systems can only function, over the medium/long term, in an inflationary environment, however mild the inflation rate may be!

    Therefor we can expect the Fed, BofE, ECB, and other “western type economies” to cut interest rates in the near future, and engage in more inflationary actions.

    There comes a mathematical point, however, in every Fiat currency system, where the compounding interest on the national debt overcomes the ability of the economy to pay it. Any Fiat system issuing debt, (credit) and charging interest, is basically parasitical, and there are no examples in history that show this statement to be incorrect.
    The recent 2000/2001/2002 bust created deflationary pressures (along with cheap imports from China), and was only beaten by blowing another bubble, - real estate.

    The models of Mises predict these bubbles, and also state that each bubble must be greater than the last, until the “system” implodes, probably in wars, civil, and international.
    Kondratieff also makes these predictions.

    This is one of three large bubbles. The Japanese inflation to beat their real estate crash, the pre-Nasdaq bubble of ‘95/2000, and the current, started in 2003/4.

    American global hegemony, financial and military, is entirely predicated on the $ being the currency globally used to purchase oil. Each nation must therefor purchase $s in order to purchase oil. Profits in dollars, held by oil exporters have classically been reinvested in US T-Bills, which has served to keep US interest rates far lower than they would be. The currencies used to purchase dollars were created by real economic “work”.
    Dollars are created by “printing” them.
    Any nation seeking to denominate oil in any currency other than the $ is attacked viciously, by whatever means. (Iraq, Iran etc)

    The inflation engines of the planet are the $/oil-link, and the Yen carry trade.

    Current levels of risk aversion are causing the unwinding of “positions” created by these inflation engines. This unwinding is causing volatility in the markets, and collapsing companies. Eventually it could be collapsing Countries, (in fact, - probably). We have already seen food riots.

    This will be a long, slow grind. It is not helped by “rescue packages”, they only delay the inevitable, and it is inevitable at this stage!

    In its fight to beat deflation, by inflating, the US dollar will become devalued. Should it become devalued IN TERMS OF OIL EXPORTING CURRENCIES, OR ANY OTHER CURRENCIES, there will be a global movement away from holding US T-Bills, at derisory interest rates that do not reward for the devaluing of the US $, IN TERMS OF OTHER CURRENCIES.

    In this situation, countries will cease to re-cycle their $ holdings into T-Bills, and will seek other investments.

    This is already happening, with Chinese Gov’t (companies) buying equity stakes in international mining companies, and mineral rights in third world countries. The current “War in Sudan/Darfor, is entirely about oil, whatever the western media may bleat. China has a pipeline gong east, the US has a pipeline going west. The CIA has been active in the area for decades, and owns puppet dictators in surrounding provinces, as indeed it does in Kosova, although their interest in Kosova seems to be to, uuhmm, “control” drug smuggling!

    Many top level financial meetings are being held around the globe currently, that the US is not attending/invited.

    Absent the $/oil link, with its outstanding international debts and its adverse balance of payments, there is very little intrinsic value in the $.

    Should an international basket be “arrived at”, the depreciation of the international purchasing power of the $ would be catastrophic. Realising this, the current administration may well choose international conflict as a way of re-establishing $ hegemony.

    And we are seeing developments along these lines too. Georgia, Iran, Pakistan, etc, pokes in the eye at China, and Russia, etc.

    With a parasitical Fed and its cohorts, and an insane CFR dominated GOP shortly to fight an election, - - who knows?

    Lets have a look at oil.

    Recently oil prices have fallen.

    This is due to the previous high price being subject to manipulation funded by the Yen carry trade + leverage, which has now gone Boom, and the destruction of demand caused by the high price, and collapsing usage where national subsidies have been withdrawn. (India, China, etc).

    However, there is a problem.

    Neoclassical Economics, - the overwhelming predominant strain, still cannot adequately explain economic growth.
    Two errors are interconnected.

    The Economist Robert Solow wrote a paper, “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth”, Feb, 1956..This is now the basis of the standard model by which neoclassical economics explains growth.

    His model gave a far superior explanation to previous models, but it also created a myth that proved just as misleading as the models it replaced.

    Solow was awarded a Nobel Prize. In the same year, Hubbert published his ground breaking paper on Peak Oil.

    The judges got the wrong guy

    In the 1950s, economists believed that economic growth could be explained by rising inputs of capital and labour. Solows models showed that growth could not be explained by merely these two, and therefor there must be something else.

    He took a formula called the “Cobb-Douglas” functions, that had previously been used in Micro Economics, at Company level, and applied those functions to the US economy as a whole

    Throughout his adapted models, Solow assigned critical assumptions to the value of labour and capital in the Cobb-Douglas models. Feeding these assumptions into the model, Solow then tested them against the actual performance of the US Economy. What he found was that the actual growth of the economy vastly exceeded his predictions

    The difference between his predictions and reality was vast, but this did not trouble Solow or the swathes of classical economists who used his models.

    The discrepancy was explained as “the effects of technical advances”, and was known as the Solow Residual, and there it ended.

    Amazingly, this situation stood until the late 1970s.

    At that time, after the first Oil Shock, the German Physicist Professor Reiner Kummel of the University of Wurzburg realised the error in Solow, Cobb Douglas models, and decided to investigate. “If an influential discipline like economics ignores the first and second laws of thermodynamics, which are effectively the construction of this universe, then it must be corrected”

    Together with two respected German economists, Professor Wolfgang Eichhorn and Dr Dietmar Lindenberger, Kummel set out to devise a model that would give appropriate weight to “Energy”, and explain economic growth more accurately.

    Solows models only valued energy according to the input cost of that energy, not the joules of energy released by the input

    Energy costs in the GDP had remained at 5% of GDP for decades, and this had been used by Solow models, which assumed therefore that a 1% increase in energy input would translate into a 0.05% increase in GDP

    Kummel converted all the various inputs of energy into petajoules per year.

    The difficulty then was to work out the relative weights of factors that were measured in un-related units, - apples and pears. He developed a new production function called LINEX, to replace the Cobb-Douglas, which normalised the various factors of production. LINES was then applied to the German and Japanese economies. The actual results almost entirely eliminated the Solow Residual. They showed that the importance of “Energy” in calculating GDP was TEN TIMES greater than that implied by Solow.

    The results were published, “The Need to Reintegrate the Natural Sciences with Economics”, Bio Science, Aug. 2001, - Charles Hall, Dietmar Lindenberger, Reiner Kummel, Tim Kroeger and Wolfgang Eiichhorn..

    In interview, Kummel said ”Understanding the paramount importance of energy in the economy is the modern equivalent of the revelation that the earth goes round the sun, not the other way round. Yet most economists and politicians who take their advice still believe the sun goes round the earth, and this translates to bad policy. The practical impact of this is profound. Because the price of energy does not relate to its productive power, we are wasting the most productive power on earth!”

    Professor Robert Ayres took Kummels work a step further, to include advances in thermodynamic efficiency that had been achieved during the 20th century

    Power stations in 1900 were 4% efficient in the conversion of input energy to output electrical energy, while power stations in 2000 were 35% efficient. Similarly with internal combustion engines.
    He realised that advances in efficiency led to lower costs and prices, which in turn stimulated demand, boosted profits and raised investment, so leading to fresh advances in efficiency. A positive feedback loop, an idea used widely in economics.

    Ayres and his co-authors spent years researching historical rates of thermodynamic efficiency in the main energy consuming sectors, and created an index to measure “useful work” in the economy, fed these into his model, based on Kummels LINEX function, producing forecasts that matched actual economic growth in America and Japan for the entire 20th century, without recalibration, almost perfectly.
    Robert U Ayres, Benjamin Wart. “Accounting for Growth: The Role of Physical Work, Structural Changes and Economic Dynamics”. Feb 2004.

    Ayres models correlation with reality is 14 times higher than the original Solow models.
    And the bigger the correlation, the bigger the trouble, the dislocation, the food crises, the economic collapse, when peak oil finally becomes the entirety of the four horsemen of the apocalypse.
    should prices increase once again towards the $150/200 range, the standard of living for western economies would rapidly fall to levels last seen in 1910. And this via food shortages, transport blockades, strikes, breakdown of government and municipal functions, rioting, mass unemployment, fuel rationing,……………………………………..! in a time period of 2 to 3 years.

    The speculators that just previously created such high prices have given the planet a wake-up call. At best we are single digit years away from declining output of liquid hydrocarbons. No western nation has a coherent energy policy that seeks effectively to mitigate the effects of Peak Oil, let alone to replace the energy of these liquid hydrocarbons from other sources/technologies, particularly in transportation, except perhaps Israel, and I doubt their ability to achieve the changes in time. A return to living standards of 1910 is predicted.

    And yet politicians insist on debating false flags such as “climate change”, Kyoto, CO2 emissions, little realising that the four horsemen are making their plans.

    The expiration of “conventional” oil should now be well understood for its economic impact throughout the planet. A global depression of monumental proportions looms

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  5. And still gold doesn't move!

    Global physical demand is through the roof.

    One live trader remarked.

    "It is amazing to watch the west sell paper gold, and the rest of the world buy real gold. I know who will ultimately win"

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  6. Biggest problem with that, Richard, was the fiat money.

    Guthrum = interesting twist.

    Very, very interesting read, Anon. Getting to understand this thing now.

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  7. The State is powerful and creates it's own new autocratic entity to sustain itself but the divinity inside people who combine for good always ultimately wins out, though at a terrible cost.

    Very true, that statement says it all really!

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  8. Cherrypie said
    The State is powerful and creates it's own new autocratic entity to sustain itself but the divinity inside people who combine for good always ultimately wins out, though at a terrible cost.

    Very true, that statement says it all really!


    Sorry to be cynical, but history frequently does not agree with you.
    Analyse the world carefully, without your rosy spectacles :-)

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  9. Ahh! anonymous I am very cynical too and my glasses are cloudy not rosy. On a small scale I would agree that evil seems to prevail, but on a larger scale goodness always seems to win through! Maybe you need to look a little wider ;-)

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