Tuesday, December 11, 2007

[economic forecast] not from me

You can always trust a banker.

Would you like my economic forecast for the west 2007 through 2011?

No, I don't blame you for your reticence - I'm an amateur, after all. Would you read one from Morgan Stanley then? They appear to know what they're talking about. They conclude, in the final paragraph:

One risk is that both our outlook and the Fed’s are too optimistic, because they pay too much attention to the economic resilience of the past, and not enough to the future effects of financial and economic headwinds and the dynamics of the downturn. Dramatically slower growth in domestic demand leaves it vulnerable to shocks.

Insufficient Fed action could again threaten a deeper economic slowdown. A contrasting risk is that we’re swayed by Wall Street pessimism and that things may be better on Main Street.

In our view, downside risks still dominate.
Inflicted on you by on

4 comments:

  1. Lord NazhTuesday 11 December 2007 at 17:57:00 GMT

    "Insufficient Fed action could again threaten a deeper economic slowdown."

    Wouldn't we have to have an economic slowdown before we could have a deeper one?

    No matter what the fed does or doesn't do, the slowdown will come, it always does. It will be up to what the fed does whether it is major or minor (lowering rates again with inflation climbing is never a good thing, have to see how that shakes out)

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  2. Welshcakes LimoncelloTuesday 11 December 2007 at 19:47:00 GMT

    Yep, we read it here first!

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  3. AnonymousTuesday 11 December 2007 at 22:02:00 GMT

    Quarter point.
    Markets tanking.

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  4. Lord NazhWednesday 12 December 2007 at 05:04:00 GMT

    Markets would've tanked regardless; we'll have to see what they do in the next week.

    1/4 was much better than going for th 1/2 here and jumping inflation that much more (as opposed to not lowering which [i think] would have actually helped inflation)

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