[prime minister] the road to power

The stand-off between PM Howard and Treasurer Costello is so uncannily reminiscent of Blair/Brown except for certain key differences and I don't mean geographically or that they're from opposing parties.

For a start:

Peter Costello and John Howard simply do not like each other. This sort of antipathy goes on in all sorts of workplaces every hour of every day. That's why most Australian voters have accepted and endorsed the Howard Government at the past two elections, when it was clear that Costello was becoming increasingly desperate for Howard to shuffle off to a retirement home somewhere on Sydney's North Shore.

There's the rub. Without a clear Devil's Deal in their case, Costello is dependent on John having intimated or "given to understand" that he'd retire and allow Costello a decent tilt at elected PMship. I wouldn't put it past Howard, an astute numbers man, to suddenly and magnanimously step down if the apparent charge of Rudd's Labor goes unchecked, Costello knows it and therein lies his deep antipathy.

As far as I can see, the populace wants not a bar of Costello the PM, although they were happy enough with him at the Treasury. Ditto Broony. Treasurers often go on to make bad PMs, e.g. Paul "ow-are-ya-me-darlin-queen-liz" Keating and now all he has left is his beloved clocks.

A check of PMs of Britain, Canada and Australia reveals nothing surprising.

True, Howard was Treasurer in an outgoing government but he didn't come directly to the PMship from there. Keating did. Hawke came directly from the ACTU, on the strength of his conciliation and arbitration work, Fraser took over in the coup d'etat in 1975, Whitlam threw out the Liberals, McMahon was Foreign Office [former Treasurer], Gorton came down from the Senate and that's as far back as it's necessary to go.

In the UK, Brown is a former Treasurer [allow me to continue the term when discussing the three countries], Blair came in on a wave, Major was the Treasurer, Thatcher came to power, Callaghan was Treasury, Home and Foreign Office, Heath came to power from Trade, Wilson also from Trade.

In Canada, Harper was critic for Finance and then came to power, Martin was Treasurer then came to power, Chretien left politics, came back and won the election, Campbell [woman] was Defence and came to the PMship then lost the election, Mulroney won by a landslide, Turner was closer to the Treasurer made PM but actually resigned then came back, Trudeau - best not to worry about him.

Interesting about Turner:

John Turner was a Prime Minister in waiting for too long. By the time John Turner had waited out the Trudeau era and was elected Leader of the Liberal Party to become Prime Minister in 1984, the country was fed up with Liberal government.

So, from all that, I do conclude that sweetheart deals and serving Treasurers acceding do not seem to be overly successful. The real statesmen tend to be swept into power in the first place by popular acclaim. After all, that Time interview with Gordo had me choking on my coffee with the canny Govan boy's sheer honesty:

Time: You're rumored to be planning a 100-day program of big policy initiatives as soon as you become Prime Minister.

Gordon Brown: That's not my aim, actually. You cannot do what people assume politics was about in the old days; you cannot just pull levers and expect things to happen. I don't see politics as one or two people just making or delivering announcements — it's also about winning public support and the public enthusiasm. You've got to win public support.

Yeah, right.