[russian president] ivanov and medvedev firm favourites

The biggest question in Russia just now is what Putin is up to, vis a vis the presidential election.

He certainly doesn't seem to be running, himself, as he announced "a reshuffle on Thursday, appointing defence minister Sergei Ivanov as first deputy prime minister, equal to Dmitry Medvedev, who already holds that position, and who has been widely tipped as Ivanov’s main rival in the 2008 presidential election."

“Thus begins the unfolding of Putin’s answer to the 2008 problem,” the daily Izvestia wrote. “There will be no 'successor' to the post of president, the voters will have to chose between absolutely equal candidates.”

The speculation can now begin as to Putin's broader game. If the two deputies will have to fight it out and if both are now being given a free rein to boost themselves before the poll and if there is no clearcut winner at the poll, would that mean Putin would be waiting in the wings to take over again in 2012?

Or is it Putin's way of observing which one to throw his weight behind, thus truly ending his era and ushering in a new? Surely Putin will be very much in the background, perhaps as some sort of elder statesman. And what of Khodorkovsky? When he comes out, won't revenging himself be very much on his mind?

Either Vladimir Putin is playing his cards close to his chest or else he's simply playing according to the rules, thereby enhancing the chances for genuine democracy in Russia, despite what his fiercest critics say.

Or perhaps he has a third motivation - to leave office a Russian statesman who put a divided country back together and back on the world map. His legacy may be very close to his heart, more so than continuing in power.

Or else he knows of the coming world disaster the Finance is planning and doesn't want to be at the helm at that time.

Intriguing.