“The West's international oil majors are in real trouble as regards the collapsing of their control over global energy reserves and face a global wave of nationalization, forced renegotiation of existing agreements, inability to get access to new exploration and production acreage and rising taxes. It is a caustic mix that is dissolving the glue that holds together the US-backed oil order.”It must be pretty clear to all who observe that there’s a three way struggle for global pre-eminence. America’s hegemony, based on its undisputed financial clout is very much under threat from the might of China with all its convoluted alliances and questionable agenda and methods.
While America remains oil dependent, Russia and Saudi also hold very strong hands and Russia, for one, is fully aware of it and playing hardball. The rejection of Exxon-Mobil’s and Shell’s advances over Sakhalin are a case in point. Reluctantly, America is paying greater attention to exploring bio-fuels and the Mexican gulf but it’s certainly a slap in the face nonetheless. America will never be weak because of the very nature of its competitive instinct and the willingness of its people to spend and yet … and yet …
Iraq is a perfect example of how to bleed America dry – not to cripple it, of course but to weaken it enough for China and the Muslim Alliance to take centre stage and set the agenda, with Russia still strong for another 30 years at least. The following article, from www.GeoStrategyMap.com, addresses Russia itself.
Read it here ...
James who is in the Muslim Alliance. Is this Shia or Sunni or Allawite led? Who is behind it? What's the connection to Al Quaeda? How does it connect say to Indonesia? I don't understand the Muslim Alliance point.
ReplyDeleteFirstly, Tiberius, I detect a touch of devil's advocate in the question. By Muslim Alliance, I mean the loosely similar aims of the Arab League and Sunnis generally - from Malaysia to Egypt. Clearly Bashar's Alawite families are simply propping up his regime and have no power in the outer world. I was using the term Muslim Alliance as we'd speak of the West.
ReplyDeleteAl Quaeda - i know less than you but strongly feel that they have clout out of all proportion to their actual strength due to 1] funding 2] training and co-ordination. The obvious question is where this comes from. The cash could easily come from Iran or Saudi but the expertise? I suspect closer to Paris, Bavaria, London and New York is where to look. Of course, I could always be wrong.
I think I agree with you about Al Q it always strikes me as a franchise arrangement- a bit like MacDonalds say wherein native crazies get some sponsorship and help but are essentially on their own.
ReplyDeleteAs to the Muslim Alliance. Just as an interesting point where do you fit Shia Iran into this- its interests and its policies often oppose the Sunni policy of say the Arab sheikhs but its in strong alliance with the Syrians- indeed if anyone is shaking say the Allawite dominance of the Syrian army as I understand it it might be Shia agents from Iran.
I can see what you mean contrasting it with the West- but and this is just me being over particular maybe- I struggle with these abstractions largely because I see a sense of an Umma and one of greivance but I don't see much else in terms of common policy. Malaysia's policies seem far more similar to Thailand's say than to Saudi Arabia's. Obviously there are Islamic ideologues who see the world differently but I don't think they dominate discourse in many places.
Think your last paragraph is correct [the rest too but especially that]. It's possibly the west's only hope.
ReplyDelete