Monday, April 21, 2008

[epidemics] useful things in some hands


Only once was I gulled into having flu shots. That winter I had two bouts of severe flu, the second almost knocking the Higham into the Choir Invisible [or Furnace Stokers as the case may be.] From then on, avoiding these shots like the plague, major bouts of illness were avoided.

Interesting to see flu vaccine questioned here as well:

What’s gone wrong with the vaccine then? According to the times, what makes it so hard for a vaccine to effectively prevent the flu is that the virus changes from year to year and experts would have to GUESS what forms of virus will be circulating for the next flu season based on the current year. Based on the guesstimation, experts formulate a vaccine to protect against those targeted strains. The newspaper goes on to explain usually the experts' guess work is pretty good and make the vaccine's efficacy at 70 to 90 percent in healthy adults. But this year they guessed it wrong and made many recipients miserable.

Might be worth looking at the great epidemics:

World War I claimed an estimated 16 million lives. The influenza epidemic that swept the world in 1918 killed an estimated 50 million people. One fifth of the world's population was attacked by this deadly virus. Within months, it had killed more people than any other illness in recorded history.

Concerning the current Moscow epidemic:

Doctors consider vaccination to be the most effective means of fighting flu, and schools regularly run vaccination programs. Adults can be inoculated year round at GPs' clinics or polikliniky. Modern vaccines contain no live viruses and so are considered safe but are only effective if boosted annually.

Inevitably, in discussing flu epidemics, the name of Heinrich Muller and the book Gestapo Chief : The 1948 Interrogation of Heinrich Muller, Volume 3 comes up. Here is a comment which accepts Mueller's doings as authentic and here is one which rejects them.

The book includes:

The interrogator, James Kronthal, the CIA Bern Station Chief asked Mueller to explain "double blow virus."

Mueller: "I am not a doctor, you understand, but the 'double-blow' referred to a virus, or actually a pair of them that worked like a prize fighter. The first blow attacked the immune system and made the victim susceptible, fatally so, to the second blow which was a form of pneumonia...[Schreiber told me] a British scientist actually developed it...Now you see why such things are insanity. These things can alter themselves and what starts out as a limited thing can change into something really terrible." [p106]

The book states he also said:

"If Stalin invades Europe...a little disease here and there would wipe out Stalin's hoards and leave everything intact. Besides, a small bottle of germs is so much cheaper than an atom bomb, isn't it? Why you could hold more soldiers in your hand than Stalin could possibly command and you don’t have to feed them clothes them or supply them with munitions. On the other hand, the threat of war...does wonders... for the economy." [p108]

So we're left with the usual dilemma - whether to believe the sceptics or those who are convinced it is genuine. Just hearsay or genuine evidence?

Wiki says, about biological warfare:

Diseases considered for weaponization, or known to be weaponized include anthrax (TR), ebola, Marburg virus, plague (LE), cholera (HO), tularemia (SR & JT), brucellosis (US, AB, & AM), Q fever (OU), machupo, Coccidioides mycosis (OC), Glanders (LA), Melioidosis (HI), Shigella (Y), Rocky Mountain spotted fever(UY), typhus (YE), Psittacosis(SI), yellow fever (UT), Japanese B encephalitis (AN), Rift Valley fever (FA), and smallpox (ZL)[13]. Naturally-occurring toxins that can be used as weapons include ricin (WA), SEB (UC), botulism toxin (XR), saxitoxin (TZ), and many mycotoxins.

Influenza does not appear there and the history of viral research is not clear. While it was 1939 before microscopy saw the virus, it's introduction to bacteria was known of before the 1918 cut off date, in fact since the turn of the century.

My own feeling is that it is scarcely necessary to "introduce" a virus. One only needs to create the social preconditions for it to develop. For example, the movement of Russian prisoners was sufficient for typhus to spread during the war.

From my reading, [of which a certain amount appears as blogposts], there are certain recognizable characteristics to Them. One is the fixation with untraceability, which in itself presupposes a concern for "official" innocence.

Now this has always puzzled me. Great lengths are gone to to appear legitimate, when one wonders why they'd bother - if they hold all the cards, to whom must they appear legitimate?

Reports on possible terrorists got lost in the works or rejected and this terrorist later turned up at 911. Who was culpable? No one. It was a stuff up, that's all - official incompetence. The powers that be were as pure as the driven snow.

And even if my contention were accepted, there'd not be a lot which could be done.

7 comments:

  1. Interesting. I've often wondered if the flu shot works. I will now avoid them on your recommendation.

    My current bout of the flu was clearly caused by the Moscow bug. Judy tells me that when I was feverish over the weekend, I was speaking fluent Russian.

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  2. Yes, that is one of the noted side-effects, Richard. You didn't develop the accompanying cossack dancing twitch by any chance?

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  3. Another of your all over the ship posts here James.

    First of all, the flu vaccine contains three viruses. The best guess the experts can make for the coming year based on many factors. No they are not always right. Sometimes a different virus will break out instead. Not only that each country will choose different strains for the vaccine they produce.

    The flu epidemic in 1918 was virtually pre vaccine days (yes they did smallpox but not much else), there were no antibiotics for secondary bacterial infection and of course the number of deaths would be totally different today. That's not to say we could not have a pandemic again but even with SARS eventually it was contained.

    Many people say they have the flu when of course they do not. Yes they have a viral infection but not influenza which is very severe indeed.

    If the vaccine is available why take the risk? Here we give it to all hospital workers and the over 65 for free, I believe others pay a nominal amount. I have had it every year for many years.

    From then on, avoiding these shots like the plague, major bouts of illness were avoided.

    Just as your flu shot did not cause the illnesses you suffered that year, not having anything since you have avoided is sheer good luck.

    Now viral warfare/germ warfare is another story

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  4. I'm entitled to free flu shots because I am asthmatic but tend to get the flu really badly in the years in which I have them!

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  5. I hope I never get the flue! I have escaped it all these years...

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  6. Glad you did not mention all those lovely tiny weapons, which are being cultivated in this and that laboratory.
    Well, once natural desasters, man-made war and famine don't help, a lovely tiny virus might help to solve the population problem.
    Future historians - in case there happens to exist any - may coin the term 'scientific solution'.
    I'll watch this (hopefully) from six foot under.

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  7. Thanks for all and particularly read JMB's because she was in the field.

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