Tuesday, September 22, 2009

[cayman islands] hedging one's bets

Hedging over the Cayman Islands

Karl Denninger today:

Senior officials of Credit Suisse, Switzerland’s second largest bank, are facing claims that they pocketed millions of dollars by dishing out loans that were impossible to repay.

Impossible to repay? What's the judge say about this?

Credit Suisse has now been accused of loaning the money in an unorthodox and lucrative deal for the bank that federal bankruptcy judge Ralph B. Kirscher described in May this year as a case of “naked greed” that “shocks the conscience of this court.”

This was a bunch of low-level employees, or even middling staff, right? Uh, wrong:

Brady Dougan, the Chief Executive Officer of Credit Suisse First Boston, and Hans-Ulrich Doerig, Chairman of the Board of Directors, received the subpoenas along with past and current Executive Board officials and Credit Suisse’s Board.

“Bank officials have testified that Credit Suisse created a Cayman Islands ‘branch’ in 2005 to sell these loans.
“In reality, there was no phone and no staff in the bank’s phony branch. “They used the Caymans to circumvent US banking laws and to issue inflated loans that Credit Suisse executives called a ‘gravy train’ in internal memos.“

What's it all about? Yes, of course it's about a naughty bank which did what comes naturally to them and adds fuel to the fire of opinion quite willing to accept restructuring of the financial system of the world [and why does everything always have to be global?] in the image of Them.

Why all the media attention? The MSM is controlled, it's not even an issue, so why no D notices on this? Why are Credit Suisse left unprotected? To hit back at the Swiss releasing personal details on clients? It would be nice to know what's going on here.

[writers] and the near impossibility of becoming one


Vox on writers:

John Scalzi attempts to explain, again, why established writers are seldom interested in reading the work of those hoping to break through the publishing barrier:

Dear currently unpublished/newbie writers who spend their time bitching about how published/established writers are mean because they won’t read your work/introduce you to their agent/give your manuscript to their editor/get you a job on their television show/whatever other thing it is you want them to do for you: A few things you should know....

It's ironic that Scalzi has to point this out so often, considering that he does more for beginning writers with his Big Idea posts than any writer not named The Original Cyberpunk.

My reasons for not reading unpublished fiction are a little different, however.

First, I simply don't have the time. I don't even read much good published fiction these days; I prefer to spend my reading time on history and economics. For example, yesterday afternoon I was reading Bernanke's The Great Depression, about which more will be said anon, and finished with Demosthenes's Orations as the nightcap.

I'm not saying I don't plow through my share of mind candy, having just read Conn Iggledon's four Emperor books last week, but unless a novel is particularly good or original, I find that I'm less interested than I used to be.

Second, after two spells on the Nebula novel jury, a year participating in the Critters Workshop, and six months working as the de facto gatekeeper for a fantasy publisher, I never, ever, want to read any new writer's unpublished fiction ever again. Still less do I feel like arguing with a writer over why my opinion of his writing, which he sought out in the first place, is wrong.

If you think much of the fiction that is published today is pretty awful, you're correct. It is nevertheless markedly superior to the stuff that is being rejected. I don't care if you think your first scribblings are brilliant or not, the probabilities dictate otherwise and I'm quite willing to swap the chance to be the first to recognize an unpublished masterpiece for the privilege of not having to read three dozen attempted crimes against the reading public.

There are some talented writers out there who are just beginning their literary careers. I occasionally read them over at the Friday Challenge and wouldn't mind publishing two or three of them someday if I ever find myself in a position to do so. If you want advice and constructive criticism, I strongly recommend participating in the activities there.

However, since I don't use an agent and at least half the publishers in the States and UK would rather chew off their fingers than sign a publishing contract with my name on it, you'd probably be much better off not doing things my way anyhow.

Now, I have certainly had the benefit of help from established writers such as Bruce Bethke, Joel Rosenberg, Lois Bujold, and Pat Wrede. But keep this in mind. At the time the OC was kind enough to look over my work and tell me to throw away my second novel attempt - which a few of you may be interested to know was set in the world of Summa Elvetica, albeit a version sans religion - I was already a nationally syndicated columnist.

The lesson is: if you have the talent or the ambition, or preferably, both, and you are willing to be persistent, you'll eventually find a way.

My comments

I find Scalzi a prat and have made a mental note never to read him - those comments of his were nasty. However, he does have a point, as Vox mentioned. The grim reality of the writing scene is that:

1. The majority of it is dire and yet the new hopeful only wants someone to read him/her, just wants someone to give him a break.

2. Every writer a bit further up the ladder is wanting him/herself read instead and is not, no matter how altruistic in nature, vitally concerned with a newbie of unproven and maybe unskilled writing talent - there are how many million of them out there.

Thus we have a, "Will you just look at this piece I've written?" which gets, in reply, "Well OK, if you just look at my piece on intergalactic travel first. Now, funnily enough, I thought of the theme in the bathtub some years ago and some people have been kind enough to suggest ..."

The first budding writer left five minutes ago.

3. Quite frankly, in the writing game, no one is going to give you a break.

4. Some put their scribblings on their blogs, as I do and a few others on my blogrolls do - one blogger's whole site is given over to his writing.

Vox's idea of writers' workshops and sites where you can run the gamut of criticism is a good one but it flies in the face of the artistic temperament of the would-be writer - his is a masterpiece, misunderstood by the critics, consummate and whole as it stands. It's humble pie to go through a process of "wasting" time on other budding writers when all you want is to have yourself published.

The writer who does initially get published knows how hard the road is and goes through a lot of s--- before getting to anywhere near "known" and during that time, he is honing his technique, learning the ropes and finding out which genres will be read and which won't. He sends pieces to magazines and news services, hawks himself to agents or else finds one and builds on that and so on.

That's the reality.

[blogger lockdown] day 3

There's a blog here which let's you cut through the c--p with contacting Blogger/Google but they don't make it easy. As the guy says:

Having some issue and want to contact Blogger Support directly? Wait a minute pal, it’s not that easy. Many important reporting forms are hidden somewhere inside a maze called Blogger Help. If you lucky, you might find some, after going here and there, turn left and right, back and forth, up and down, etc.

To those people kind enough to suggest they'd contact Blogger on my behalf, about this lockdown, I really don't know what to suggest. The link above might work. Either way, Blogger are less than impressive in the way they deal with clients.

Meanwhile



Still in the experimental stages, the new blog is being constructed but as it is more than a blog this time, it is taking a fair bit of work. It is a different url and even that is being changed from day to day, things added, things subtracted, new themes found, new databases.

The transfer of Blogger files continues - there are many - and all that remains is to thank you for your help and offers of help, turning bewilderment into a clear idea where this thing is headed. This will be the last of these lockdown posts until it's actually resolved now.

Update Tuesday, 0912, our time

Right, they've lifted the lockdown without a word of apology and turned what were reasonably kindly feelings towards Blogger into a resentment of the way they organize themselves and pursue these policies. They need to look long and hard at their bots and what can be done to someone's site and piece of mind.

Do they seriously want sustainable blogs on their hosting service, do they want people who use the blog to write or do they want the Myspace Kid? If Blogger aspires to anything higher, and they seem to be doing so with their innovations, compared to three years ago, then the whole systemic mentality has to change.

That's all I have to say on that matter.

Monday, September 21, 2009

[thought for the day] monday evening

It's the end of the world; there's nothing more to live for:

[most influential films of all time] my top four

Breathless, The Seventh Seal, Casablanca, Die Hard, Battleship Potemkin and so on and so on - how can any of these be left off a list of influential films? To choose the four most influential is a near impossibility but mine are below.


Which ones have been left out? Remember - not best film - most influential on English speaking audiences.

[late evening listening] strumming guitar

The Economic Voice's Titanic Captain presents Chris King in Cardiff:



Dearieme pours fire on troubled oil with his own pithy observation of the Blogger lockdown saga. Laugh? I reach for my Browning :)



Yes


Finally, I present Chris Isaac [yes I know I've posted this before but I like it]. The camerawork is amateurish but the sound is nice:

[blogger lockdown] day 2


Update 18:00

Busy building the new site - you know how long that takes - and so I can't get round much until tomorrow morning. I'll be over to you as soon as I can. There are scheduled posts coming this evening.

This morning's post

From the fact that this post is up, it appears that I can post, with verification, verification being something I detest at the best of times so let's not dwell on that.

More to the point is how this situation could have happened in the first place.

There seems to be a mechanism where anyone at all can come in to anyone's site - I could come to yours, if you're on Blogger - and simply click Flag in the navbar. Your blog then is immediately locked down by Blogger and you can't post. Worse than that, I can click Delete this Blog on YOUR blog at any time - Blogger let you do that.

Guilty until proven innocent.

Pardon me but isn't there a principle in U.S. and British law that a person is innocent until proven guilty? I know the West-Midlands springs to mind immediately to a Brit, in terms of justice but even in our democracy-lite days of this era the principle still technically applies.

And whatever happened to previous form on a blog? Whatever has been built up over the years?

If this is, in fact, the Blogger/Google policy, then it stinks.

Go to Wordpress you say and I'm very much inclined to but I've been looking at the Wordpress terms and conditions and even if I purchase the top upgrade, I still can't do something as simple as alter my site's appearance. I can write new CSS style sheets, at a cost to me, renewable yearly and my old changes are lost if I don't renew.

The only way to achieve a comparable level of site control to what I currently enjoy, vis-a-vis editing, is to be a VIP blogger and for that you must be invited and have 500 000 hits a month. I don't like this. For most people, editing of blog appearance is not an issue but for me it is.

For example, I want 994px width to my theme. OK, currently, I just go to my template and type it in, making the other necessary changes along the way. Simple. But on Wordpress, that's not possible - one can only choose between custom themes someone else is offering and can make only cosmetic changes to it, playing at being an editor.

Even if you were to recommend a good-self hosting and server set-up, that's money, whereas Blogger lets you do that for free. Apart from Blogger's recent insistence on trying to organize Compose with this stupid "p", which I then have to go through and change back or else compose entirely in html, the only criticism is this bloody lockdown nonsense they seem to pursue, on the whim of someone who doesn't like you.

In my situation, the nature of my subject matter means there are plenty of people who don't so I could be in for a more or less continuous lockdown, each time with a 20 day waiting period for someone to come along and unlock it.

Blogging - who needs it?

[best five bond films] few will agree


Who was it who said that if it hadn't been a James Bond film, it would have been acclaimed? On Her Majesty's Secret Service, with soundtracks like this, was very strong as an action romance, it didn't enter the realms of the improbable [not a lot anyway] and it had all the required elements of a top film.

I'll go out on a limb and rate these my five contenders for best Bond films of all time:

1. Casino Royale [2006]

Craig was fantastic the way he exploded onto the screen and later rolled the Aston Martin a record number of times, his leading lady was excellent with real interaction the like which hadn't been seen since OHMSS, Mads Mikkelson and the terrorist were quite creepy and frightening respectively and just as important as a leading lady, in my book, is the quality of the offsider - in this case Giancarlo Giannini, a great choice for the role.

M - Dame Judy, who's done to that role what David Suchet and Joan Hickson did to theirs, is the only conceivable choice.

The locations were superb and that train journey "I'm the money" exotic. From the free-running at the start to the sad ending, this was a film and a half. And don't forget the muscle bound Bond in the blue trunks, rising from the water.

2. OHMSS [1969]

Barry's lush score, the plot, Diana Rigg, Telly Savalas and a very strong supporting cast, including the great Ilse Steppart, made for a superb piece of escapism. These were real actors in there. The offsider [as far as Bond has offsiders] was Gabriele Ferzetti - an Italian smoothy, just as in Casino Royale. Don't forget Moneypenny either.

On the down side was George Lazenby, of course, for his woodenness but I contend that he was excellent in the fight scenes and I couldn't see Sean Connery doing romance as well as Lazenby. Remember Entrapment - great film but Sean's writers wisely kept off the romance. The scene in the car with father and daughter in OHMSS was as good as acting gets. "Love? That might come too."

This film had exotic written all over it, from the atmosphere at the glass door of the UE office to the bobsled chase, not to mention suspense in Gumbolt's office. Great film.

3. Goldeneye [1995]

Great return for Bond, bungee-jumping down that dam wall and Sean Bean lifts anything he's in - he was a mean muvver of a baddy [one reviewer said "At last we have a villain who is more than just a megalomaniac."] He always disquietens me, Sean Bean and as for Famke Janssen and Dame Judy, they were right out of the top drawer. Joe Don Baker was much better here, Robby Coltrane was Robby Coltrane and clearly enjoying the part, not to mention Izabella Scorupco's feisty Natalya and don't forget Q.

Very strong and like the previous two, in the hands of a very good director on a mission from the franchise. Downside? Not a lot really and that might be it's main strength, Goldeneye - it's evenness. It's a real Bond vehicle.

4. For Your Eyes Only [1981]

Moore is not my favourite Bond but he sure is smooth. I should think a lady would be more satisfied with a night out with the assiduous Moore than with Wham Bam Sean, however dangerous he looks. Put Carole Bouquet in there with her brooding manner and add Topol, a great rogue if ever there was one and there are the makings of a great film.

The graveyard scene showed Moore back to his best - he can act - and the clifftop finale was very strong, as was the nice touch of the sleigh ride. Less acceptable was the killing off of a baldy meant to be Blofeld and the egregious Bibi plus the Margaret Thatcher at the end was barely OK. That was the Bondishness that the series doesn't really need and where was the Aston Martin, even though the 2CV was fun?

The professional marksman was more frightening than any of the main baddies and it's a pity that couldn't have been developed. However, all in all, it was an excellent film.

5. I'm going to cheat here and say I can't make up my mind between:

a. From Russia with Love - Grant, Tatiana Romanova, the wonderful Kerim Bey and the train motif, often a winner. But more than this - it was a film where all the elements came together, against the odds, of a great director. Don't forget Sean at his menacing best either.

b. Die Another Day - for Halle Berry and Rick Yuen.

c. Goldfinger - because it's great.

d. You Only Live Twice - exotic locales and score but a boring space-plot and tedious destruction of the techno-cavern again.

e. TWINE - for Sophie and Denise.

f. For me, the two best villains ever - Richard Kiel [Jaws] and Goetz Otto [Stamper]

"Villains" is a good theme for another post but for me, Otto and Die Hard's Alan Rickman [Hans] and Alexander Godunov [Karl] take some beating for sheer terror and creepiness.

Anyway - that's my list. And yours?

Master debaters and the art of conviction

Mr. Eugenides asks whether the art of debate is what we require of our politicians today or if it is more that we require integrity and a belief in that which they're arguing.

So glad the Galloping Greek could return for another bout, his previous two pieces being on Scotland, Greece and Russia and then ... yes, believe it ... on Heaven!



I spent my student days at Glasgow University, and quite a lot of that time was spent in the Union Debating society, which was then reputed as among the very best in the world. Noted for producing formidable debating talents (leave aside their politics) such as John Smith, Menzies Campbell and Charles Kennedy among others, Union debaters had a history of success unparalleled by any other university; fifteen times British champions - three times more wins than any other institution, at that time - and five times World champions, a record which still stands and to which I am proud to have contributed.

More to the point, perhaps, we played the game in the right spirit, dammit. Not for us the rituals of debating geeks up and down the land, burying their heads in back issues of the Economist and memorising statistics about world trade. No, GUU men (and girls) stood up and took the fight to the opposition with rhetoric, confidence and (on a good day) razor-sharp wit; bristling with aggression, chutzpah and balls (particularly the girls), we were the first into the bar at the end of the day and the last out every night, without fail.

Generously funded by our Union – the only good kind of union – some of us were lucky enough to travel the world at taxpayers’ expense before John Prescott made it popular, and we were damned if we were going to spend our precious week in New York, Manila or Sydney getting an early night tucked up in bed when there was nightlife to be explored and local brews to be sampled. Love us or hate us, few people were unaware of the presence of the Glasgow contingent at a post-debate party; kilted, beers in hand and never shy to start a singsong, they were (and are) a fixture thankfully more permanent than the Tartan Army at international football tournaments.

Glasgow was and is peculiar in so far as internal debates are conducted on a “Parliamentary” system. A number of quasi-political clubs, such as SNP, Tories or Whigs, argue for broadly left- or right-wing points of view throughout the year, and while membership of clubs is not tied to real-world political parties, the system makes it possible for those of a certain world-view to attend debates during the year in the knowledge that they will usually be arguing for policies and positions with which they have some sympathy.

But competitive intervarsity debating is different. When you get to a competition, teams are drawn randomly on proposition or opposition, and only then is a motion for debate announced. You have 15 minutes to prepare a detailed and preferably water-tight argument for or against regime change in Burma, say, or renewal of Trident, or the legalisation of drugs. Your own political beliefs and sympathies are neither here nor there. And, unlike Question Time or the House of Commons, assertions and half-truths are punished by opponents, and by adjudicators.

Those who succeed are those who become skilled at making up cases on the fly, who are flexible enough to quickly adapt to either side of literally any subject, who can be instantly persuasive for or against any proposition at the drop of a hat, and then stand up in the next debate and, if need be, argue for precisely the opposite with apparent sincerity and conviction.

My generation of ex-debaters are now, for the most part, in their thirties, and many of the most successful, from places like Oxbridge, the Inns of Court, Glasgow, Edinburgh or Trinity College, are in politics, either as party hacks, advisers or, in many cases, as elected, or soon-to-be-elected, councillors, MSPs and MPs.( I won’t name them to spare their blushes, but they span all parties from all across the spectrum.)

I can’t claim to know all these people well, but I can predict with a fair degree of confidence that in another ten years or so there will be a liberal smattering of familiar [to me] faces on the green benches – and, by extension, in legislatures around the world.

If you’re still reading, you may by now have divined the point I’m building up to. We have a whole generation of budding politicians who have basically been groomed to construct and deliver arguments based not on their own convictions but on the vagaries of a computerised draw. We’re speaking in favour of higher spending to see the country through recession? Great, I’ve jotted down some compelling arguments from the pro side. Oh, sorry, I wrote the draw down wrong; we’re actually opposing higher spending? No problem; we can do that too. What do I personally think about this? What’s that got to do with anything?

Don’t get me wrong. I believe that my time as a debater really did equip me with critical thinking skills and techniques which have stood me in good stead in my life; I’m confident in front of a crowd, still reasonably quick on my feet in an argument, and I can see both sides of every story. And the aforementioned debaters, who are now making their way into politics and may in time become senior figures in their respective parties, are for the most part people of conviction whom I would be happy to have as representatives, even when their politics differ widely from my own.

But I worry about a political system in which whole cohorts of new MPs have essentially been trained to lie as smoothly and professionally as possible, and boast about it on their CVs (as, indeed, do I). We’ve got enough liars in that place as it is.


[french news] romance more exciting than corruption


The story of Villepin and Sarkozy:

Nicolas Sarkozy accuse Dominique de Villepin d'avoir monté un complot destiné à l'abattre dans sa course vers la présidentielle de 2007.

... is seemingly of less importance to the French, if le Figaro's order of articles is to be believed, than the story of:

"Les amours romanesques de la princesse et du président"



Amusing that she is written of as Lady Di in the French press. The French seem to have their priorities straight.