Tuesday, November 27, 2007

[tramvai of dreams] of trees and camshafts

The Linara Tree

The Linara Tree is very special. First you have to be super-intelligent, 20 years old and so beautiful that men would weep and gnash their teeth.

Then you must go to the black sea and get a smoothed pebble of a reasonable size, bring it back, wrap copper wire around it, attach two glass eyes for stability, then add white cotton foliage.

Now it's ready to present to your professor. Спасибо огромное, милая!

What a day. Next week I plan to post a photo of just the type of thing one must put up with over here - five of them today and every one could grace a Vogue magazine cover.

Then to the cafe and the paths were so treacherous it was just a shuffling slide the whole way. Perfect example of what I wrote about last week. Only minus 5 and yet so cold my back froze up through the jacket - the wind was coming off the lake and it was bitter.

The girls I cheerioed the other evening were there and "clustered", the pea and ham soup was wonderful, a warm time was had by all and then it was out into the chill again. Shuffle, stop, shuffle, stop, hood up, gloves on and still not enough. This was going to be tough but the soup was nice.

Tramvai eventually came to the wind whipped stop and all augured well, Higham the Iceberg stumbled up the steps, the feeling came back to the body and then, right in the middle of the busiest intersection imaginable, four lanes in each direction, the tram stopped. Now I hadn't wanted to say anything but the dirty great metal camshaft rolling around the tram floor was in for a surprise.

Suddenly the driver, a woman, came running out, the conductress, a woman, helped her lift the shaft off the tram, the lights changed, the horns reached a cacophany, the shaft turned out to be a tow bar and suddenly we were towing another tram, we stopped, the driver came rushing out, they both got off and collected the shaft and flung it back on the tram, the driver hurtled into a lady passenger, the conductress smiled at my dumbfounded expression, the tram started and that was the end of the fun.

Life can be difficult over here but it is never, never boring. Actually, the body core temperature I think did drop a fraction and the back hasn't responded in the warm flat so perhaps off to bed now is the answer.

[presidency] obama, meet oprah

Time posts an interesting point of view on the Obama-Winfrey connection:

Winfrey's endorsement — and her announcement that she will appear with Obama at campaign events in Iowa, South Carolina, and New Hampshire on December 8 and 9 — helps bring the following four things to Obama: campaign cash, celebrity, excitement and big crowds.

The four things that Obama has on his own in great abundance — without Winfrey's help — are campaign cash, celebrity, excitement and big crowds.

Perhaps but surely it's not going to hurt either.

[incompetence] there may be a reason

This mini-series begins today with "There may be a reason", continues tomorrow with "Human Resources" and concludes the day after wih "Failure Analysis".

The series is a reaction against the massive losses of the past few months in governmental departments and it focuses on the private sector first.

Dave Cole sums up the lost disks saga:
Apart from providing endless fodder for fake eBay auctions and amusing photos, one thing that I hope comes out of Revenue-gate is a desire to keep tabs on data protection, privacy and computer security in all public bodies.

To that end, I think the Government should cause to be published, all in one place, the relevant policies from every bit of government. A Royal Commission should investigate and make recommendations on whether current procedures are sufficient and whether a standardised set of policies would be preferable.
Good analysis as far as it goes but makes the same mistake as many equally astute analysts in assuming the system actually works and that party politics and the juciciary are actually the real source of power.

So George Osborne says Labour is "now officially in crisis. Everything Gordon Brown promised about his premiership - competence, honesty and change - has been blown away in the last few weeks. " What's he talking about "in the last few weeks". My goodness party politics is a bore because it signifies nothing in the end.

The articles called Micro-Control 1-8 are not particularly wonderful but they do include links fed by men and women who have dug deep. These few bloggers outline what really is happening, not unlike the inimitable Wat Tyler does in a more government based sense.

The aforementioned bloggers have shown beyond reasonable doubt that the old enemy inside Europe is indeed moving into Britain with its practices and procedures and has been doing so with a far more wide-ranging agenda than the average person will accept.

There's an understandable tendency to assume the incompetence of losing CDs and all the rest of it as almost par for the course – well of course a wicked man like Brown would preside over an incompetent civil service, wouldn't he? He's NuLab, after all. And of course Bush needs a minder.

But for me, that assumption's not enough. Let me explain.

I worked in the civil service in HM Customs and though I could write a book about that experience, nevertheless, it was just not true that incompetence was endemic. This was in the 70s. We had a situation where 15 pence was unaccounted for one evening and we were kept there until 20:50 going over and over thousands of the day's dockets to find the error.

There was a real top-down demand that everything be ship-shape. Losing five CDs would have been enough for an internal inquiry. Now we are seeing such a continuing litany of error, gross error and I really wonder how such gross error continue? Departments are known for covering their butts, not for such mammoth scandals as these, at least not so often and not so continually.

There are only two ways I can see. The incompetence is either embedded in the essential weakness of modern team-based procedures [see Hewlett Packard] or else tacit acceptance comes down from above, as Abu Ghraib also seems to have done. I'm not referring to direct orders but to far more subtle things.

For example, a junior clerk used to make an error. He was jumped on by a superior because the superior would be jumped on from above and so on. Now the junior clerk's just told to be more careful and his team carries the blame. That's a quantum shift.

The rationales which are now possible were not possible earlier. The new work procedures are always going to have teething troubles, aren't they? Give us time to get things working – these are exciting new procedures, after all and there'll be new ones next year. £5 million mislaid – well, we're still getting our command and control structure right to meet 21st century challenges.

And all the while, Julia Middleton and her ilk are pushing the necessity for change in workplace and regional command practices. Change, change, change, so there's no breathing space for stability and efficiency to emerge. New ideas, always new, with a litany of rhetoric and labels to support them and to vilify traditional practices.

We had this in education, [see link here and this link which links to links here], a field where faddiness is endemic and wholesale changes were made in the 70s and 80s. Look at the result of the fads now.

The truly evil men, those with malice aforethought, are both subtle and removed from the immediate machine which produces the non-functioning people who make the errors. They're never going to be caught out actually doing anything evil – they just fail to do good when it is required [the church during the war for example]. They just appeal to and help along human nature, natural folly and incompetence and let the sheep do the rest.

And one small part of this overall thrust is that team based solutions in “modern” business are always going to equal avoidance of direct responsibility – blame it on the team and punishment is blunted. How do you sack an entire team? A great structure to produce dystopic results.

A huge amount of the blame can also be laid at the feet of HR [post coming up] in organizations and was there ever a set of serpents such as these – incompetents in business, telling staff that they're on their side but in reality either in with management via the cursed monthly evaluations or else marginalized and irrelevant. Get rid of HR now.

The last thing is failure analysis [post coming up] or lack of it in any effective way. Experts rail at top down hierarchies and say that team-based approaches solve the problem. Do they heck as like – they just defuse and decentralize blame giving and taking.

So, as long as the mania for change for change's sake continues, gross errors will continue. I admire Dave Cole's implicit faith in the system, calling for a Royal Commission but I can't share this faith, not when the system is undergoing such radical change on the back of an almost maniacal EU drive.

Monday, November 26, 2007

[russia] election on december 2nd for us

The NYT reports:
President Vladimir V. Putin today accused the United States of trying to taint the legitimacy of upcoming Russian parliamentary elections by pressing a group of prominent independent election observers to abandon their attempts to monitor the campaign.

Mr. Putin contended that the monitors, who are deployed by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, had canceled plans to appraise the parliamentary balloting at the urging of the State Department in Washington.

Well, I'm in no position to comment. I'm indirectly involved in this election and I'm privy to what many Russians say. On the other hand, I'm known to be connected with one side in the matter so not everyone comes out and says what they think.

One of the strongest detractors I know admits that the majority do actually support Putin and are therefore hoodwinked and she doesn't assert coercion. If only those obervers would remain, they could see for themselves.

I'm intending to go to one of the polling stations and last time I went, I can say this categorically - I watched many going into the room in the school [as in the west] where the booths were with curtains [as in the west].

I saw a ballot paper and it listed just the names of the candidates, although there was a big poster in the foyer with all candidates and which party they were from. It may be that this time the parties are listed but it scarcely matters - people know anyway.

I saw people go in and then come out of the booth, walk across to the table and slip the folded ballot paper in the letterbox opening in the sealed metal box [as in the west]. There were no cameras and the closest armed guard was outside the polling room and he looked bored.

Clearly no one was expecting trouble as it's pretty well a foregone conclusion - most pundits say Yedinaya Rossiya will pick up around 75% of the vote.

Even if assertions were correct and undue pressure was brought to bear, it still doesn't alter the fact that the ballot paper is marked in a curtained booth and then goes straight to the one box with all the others.

Of far greater concern to me is the plan to cut out our trams - I need my tram home and do not wish to go by car nor by bus. However, I'm fighting a losing battle because it seems to have been settled.

The only ray of hope is that my mate said they've been saying this for the last ten years so hopefully they'll threaten it for another ten years too.

[once a champ] sampras' amazing feat

OK, it was a “friendly”. OK, there might have been a bit of skylarking here, I don't know. But it seems amazing to me:
Pete Sampras' win over Roger Federer in Macau this weekend does nothing to end arguments about who is the greater player, but the American is convinced the world No.1 will smash his records.

Following two defeats last week in their three-match Asian exhibition series, the retired Sampras came back strongly at Macau's Venetian resort-hotel Saturday, defeating the Swiss maestro in straight sets 7-6 6-4.


Sampras, who admitted in a press briefing after the match that he came to Asia hoping to be competitive and to take a set off Federer, is predicting that the 12-time Grand Slam champion will beat his mark of 14 and eclipse his rankings records.


Sampras, 36, held the top ranking for a record 286 weeks in total and finished as world number one for a record six consecutive years.
36 years old? Wow! And not over a former champ nor even a current Top 10 but over the reigning World N1. That's awesome.

[churches] new directions a cause for concern

Click for the big pic.

There are some themes and motifs running right the way through Christian belief including:

1. The church [meaning the sum total of believers] is always going to be perverted from the course outlined in scripture and will follow charismatic men's interpretations about what scripture says rather than what it actually says - and followers will accept this on the strength of the leaders' esoteric knowledge of theology.

In other words, the high priests and cardinals will say that such 'n such is the Word and it will be believed by the majority of believers. This will not be accepted by both infidels nor by the tiniest minority of believers. Strange bedfellows, the infidel and the Christian thinker.

The result of this is that the “moral majority” will turn on the minority believer and, at the behest of the leaders, ostracize that person and turn a deaf ear to his/her words. The infidel chuckles at this because it achieves the same effect they desire - inuring people against the Word.

These Charismatics, seeming holy men but actually anything but, are the “false prophets” referred to in the gospels and the warning is that even “the very elect” will be fooled by their signs and “miracles”. But if one analyses the sum effect of the signs and words and looks at the nature of the miracles, it will be possible to see through false messages.

You'll know them by their fruits.

Thus, miracles like the changing of the water in Nairobi or celestial wonders might not stem from the Messiah or his prophet at all but from quite achievable set-ups plus one more thing – the sign will not be of a genuinely “healing nature”. That is, Lazarus will not be able to take up his bed and walk but it will be either a clever effect or it will look very much as if Lazarus did take up his bed and walk [whilst in fact he was never dead in the first place].

In other words, the believers will be fooled.

2. Another sign that something is wrong is the moment money comes into the equation and when Churches [the buildings] glitter with gold, when pardons are sold, when the leaders ride in Mercedes, when mass congregations chant in unison, when the charismatic overrides the simple Word of scripture.

The mass movement of people for any cause, taking them from homes and families and creating a "greater good" [which is a key Christian motif anyway] is dangerous, highly dangerous because an enormous pool of devotees seeking for signs can be easily hijacked, diverted and fleeced.

This is why, for such as these, only scripture itself is safe, particularly the gospels.

The instant the credit card comes into the conversation too, that's the time to exit. Collection plates are one thing – they've always been but are open to abuse, i.e. the congregation sees how much you've put in the plate and the credit donation is so open to abuse. About the only genuine collection is the opaque box at the entrance to the Church where no duress is placed on visitors.

3. Yet another motif is that Christians, by definition, believe that society will slowly degrade to the point where all sorts of profanities begin to exist on a more or less mass scale, e.g. pre-marital sex, drugs, violence, disrespect, role models turned on their heads [e.g. Paris Hiltons rather than Dr. Livingstones], deviant promiscuity [this is a big motif], lawlessness, idolatry, false gods like shopping centres [the palaces of glitz], rampant materialism and so on.

Trouble is that Christians have always seen end-time scenarios – in Roman times, with Napoleon, with Hitler – there've always be cogent arguments for this being The End - but a reading of the gospels indicates clearly that we won't know when that is. He'll come “like a thief in the night”.

Even here people seek their own comfort e.g. the widespread belief that when the oppression starts [as Revelations indicates opaquely], all true believers will be plucked up to Heaven [pre-tribulationists] and the infidels will be left to cook in sulphur fires and to suffer all manner of pestilence.

For a start, how can the pre-tribulationists know that and secondly, how does that accord with “suffering” for Christ, enduring things for His sake? Pre-tribulation is a cushy way of armchair travel, i.e. we can't be touched because we're protected.

4. This is not how I read scripture. I read it that there will be great vicissitudes, that people will mock and oppress anyone who preaches a grim scenario [because let's face it, no one wants to hear bad news] but that what faith brings is comfort in times of trouble.

It doesn't inure the believer against trouble itself, it doesn't deliver him/her from it but it does provide a way of coping with it - real comfort in troubled times. That's its overwhelming plus - Christianity. Not just redemption in Heaven [and boy, I'm going to need all the redemption I can get] but real succour and one more thing – inner strength.

This is what infidels can never forgive, nor the deluded and misled believers who think they're true believers [after all, they attend Church and give money] but they don't seem to have this inner power. They can never forgive the person who simply followed the instruction manual and “submitted' [the Islam motif too] to the Word, thereby gaining this strength, this serenity.

And yet, look at the saints through history – driven people, uncompromising in what they said, inconvenient things in the eyes of the powers that be [will no one rid me of this turbulent priest], inconvenient things to the comfort seeking populace – and saints always come a cropper in the end, burnt for their beliefs. Savonarola, Joan of Arc maybe, perhaps Thomas More.

It's a constant motif, easily recognizable. The real Christian lives dangerously, a voice in the wilderness, he/she's vilified.

But is he/she technically mad? I say he/she's no more mad than the sheep following a false messiah. He/she's definitely different to the multitude but more likely to be a reformed sinner than a born saint. If tending to the sufferings of the weak and vulnerable can be termed madness, if taking a different tack to the multitude, knowing it will bring trouble down on the household is mad, then he/she is mad.

5. The notion of exclusivity is a huge problem, theologically and socially. Are those of another faith, e.g. Buddhism, Judaism, Islam, condemned to hellfire because they don't accept Jesus of Nazareth as Messiah?

Logic dictates not. Logic dictates that these people would be categorized as innocents and who knows, maybe they're given another chance later. Maybe when all is revealed, the true nature of affairs will encompass all of these anomalies.

Through the gospels run compassion and concern for one's fellow man. It's most certainly not manifested in condemnation until one comes to Paul, with whom I have great problems. This is why I prefer to stick to the gospels although Paul did say some intelligent things.

And so, finally, to the point of this post and well done if you've got this far:

6. The motif of evangelism and the problems arising from that. From the New York Times comes this story of Anchorage early in October:
[A] soaring white canvas dome with room for a soccer field and a 400-meter track. Its prime-time hours are already rented well into 2011. Nearby is a cold-storage facility leased to Sysco, a giant food-distribution corporation, and beside it is a warehouse serving a local contractor and another food service company.

The entrepreneur behind these businesses is the ChangePoint ministry, a 4,000-member nondenominational Christian congregation that helped develop and finance the sports dome. It has a partnership with Sysco’s landlord and owns the warehouse.

The church’s leaders say they hope to draw people to faith by publicly demonstrating their commitment to meeting their community’s economic needs.


Among the nation’s so-called megachurches — those usually Protestant congregations with average weekly attendance of 2,000 or more — ChangePoint’s appetite for expansion into many kinds of businesses is hardly unique.

An analysis by The New York Times of the online public records of just over 1,300 of these giant churches shows that their business interests are as varied as basketball schools, aviation subsidiaries, investment partnerships and a limousine service.
But the entrepreneurial activities of churches pose questions for their communities that do not arise with secular development.

These enterprises, whose sponsoring churches benefit from a variety of tax breaks and regulatory exemptions given to religious organizations in this country, sometimes provoke complaints from for-profit businesses with which they compete — as ChangePoint’s new sports center has in Anchorage.


And when these ventures succeed — when local amenities like shops, sports centers, theaters and clinics are all provided in church-run settings and employ mostly church members — people of other faiths may feel shut out of a significant part of a town’s life, some religion scholars said.


Churches have long played an economic role ... but the expanding economic life of today’s giant churches is distinctive. First, they are active in less expected places: in largely flourishing suburbs and barely developed acreage far beyond cities’ beltways and in communities far from the Southern Bible Belt with which they are traditionally associated.


Scott L. Thumma, a pioneer in the study of megachurches at the Hartford Institute for Religion Research at the Hartford Seminary in Connecticut, whose roster of churches was the basis for the Times analysis, said he has noticed churches that sponsor credit unions, issue credit cards and lend to small businesses.


Although community outreach is almost always cited as the primary motive, these economic initiatives may also indicate that giant churches are seeking sources of revenue beyond the collection plate to support their increasingly elaborate programs, suggested Mark A. Chaves, a religious sociologist at Duke University.


Also feeding this wave of economic activity is the growing supply of capital available to religious congregations.
ChangePoint paid $1 million upfront and borrowed $23.5 million from a state economic development agency to buy a defunct seafood-packaging plant and warehouse out of foreclosure in July 2005.

To do so, it formed a partnership with the for-profit owner of the cold-storage unit surrounded by the seafood plant’s land. An affiliated nonprofit is developing the sports dome with a gift of $4 million worth of church land. The church controls these entities directly or through board appointments, said Scott Merriner, executive pastor and a former McKinsey consultant.


Just how far-reaching the megachurch economy can become is clear at the First Assembly of God Church in Concord, a small community northeast of Charlotte. Under the umbrella of First Assembly Ministries are the church, with 2,500 in weekly attendance; a 180-bed assisted-living center; a private school for more than 800 students; a day-care center for 115 children; a 22-acre retreat center; and a food service — all nonprofit.

In addition, there is WC Properties, a for-profit unit that manages the church’s shopping center, called Community at the Village, where a Subway outlet, an eye-care shop and other businesses share space with church programs that draw traffic to the mall.
7. The Charismatic. It's an interesting article - 6 - and though the reasons seem, in Christian terms, to be valid and cogent, one needs to be careful. It may well be that these are not the end times we're entering now but it sure looks like it.

Given that, we need to be on the lookout for the false messiahs [plural], the Hitlers who will appear to be the nation's saviours but turn out to be anything but. They'll appear at a time of low national morale, when the leadership is riddled with corruption and no one really knows where they're going.

They'll appear at the last moment, just when things seemingly can't get worse and when people are roaming around like lost sheep, when the Word has effectively fallen into disuse and all reference to it [e.g. Christmas] is being actively suppressed throughout the community and on the net.

They'll be charismatic, thes messiahs, seeming to have the answers, which is the reason I can never be one of these – I don't have any answers within myself. I'm just a miserable sinner like the next man but I can point you to one of the answers if you wish because I've seen it working.

So I'm waiting for the seemingly great Man of Integrity to arise, knowing it's neither Brown nor Bush but will be someone everyone thinks is a really cool dude because he'll have an air of being in charge, of having the answers. I can't see it being Clinton because she's vilified by so many already.

It will be someone who seems to talk “eminent sense” but part of that “sense” will be suppression of ALL religion [meaning Christianity as the main target] because religion has caused more wars and so on and so on.

He'll [and I think it wil be a He because half the population will not follow a She] be eminently reasonable in suggesting that we need to be chipped for our own security against dangerous insurgents within our communities, that everything will be fine as long as we don't rock the boat and listen to free thinkers [labelled terrorists]. He'll start on the intelligentsia and scientists and work his way through the community.

This is not theological in the least. This is just a rehashing of the history of nations. The only thing I can say is to be aware. That's all.

Click for the big pic.