Sunday, April 22, 2007

[mr eugenides] double britblog roundup

Flying Rodent has this, "an incredibly ambitious effort, where he attempts nothing less than the creation of a new taxonomy of political belief systems."

He gets my vote this week but a special mention to this:

"...between Matt Sinclair and Gracchi about what Matt refers to as Cameron's 'Labrador Conservatism'. Start here and then read Gracchi's response."

Sadly, your humble correspondent does not find himself nominated for Thogger Awards and Britblog Roundups and what have you [violins begin, please] but [sob, sob] no matter. I still love you all [sob, sob] and will continue to blog alone [sob, sob, sob - breaks down and weeps, pours a shot of whisky and returns to the keyboard refreshed].

[bad science] the fallacy of the rationalist

Abduction, or inference to the best explanation, is a method of reasoning in which one chooses the hypothesis which would, if true, best explain the relevant evidence.

Deductive reasoning is the kind of reasoning in which the conclusion is necessitated by, or reached from, previously known facts (the premises). If the premises are true, the conclusion must be true.

Inductive reasoning is the process of reasoning in which the premises of an argument are believed to support the conclusion but do not ensure it. It is used to ascribe properties or relations to types based on tokens (i.e., on one or a small number of observations or experiences); or to formulate laws based on limited observations of recurring phenomenal patterns.

The problem with the Rationalist is that he wishes to apply deductive constraints on the proposer whilst not applying them to himself. A proposer who argues abductively that, on the given evidence, something is likely to be so suddenly finds the Rationalist trying to impose a system of logic other than that employed and which is inappropriate for the situation.

This is bad science but the Rationalist denier is an old hand at this game. Moving to the particular, there is an author quoted in another post:

"...he shows how its possible for a group of people to misinterpret a laundry list as evidence for the conquest of the world - the first is likely the second unlikely ..."

To which I replied:

And of course, perfectly possible for a group of people to so inure themselves against all but a rationalist explanation, carefully selecting evidence to quote and ignoring the rest.

In the case of Atlantis, the Bimini road has an alternative explanation but is only one of many pieces of evidence - the pyramid which shone, the evidence of your eyes in Photo 1 in that post, [which has zero to do with natural phenomena], the vases and the metal plate with the hieroglyphics - it goes on and on.

The Rationalist takes the Bimini, for which there IS an alternative explanation [I included the Tasmanian link here] and extrapolates that in general to mean that ALL the evidence has an alternative. But that, of course, is just not so and is poor reasoning.

And in the case of Atlantis, there is no need to resort to such arguments, as the physical evidence is substantive to begin with. A pyramid with rooms is a pyramid with rooms. Looking at Photo 1 again, it can only be with grim determination that one could say that that walkway, where the divers are, was naturally formed.

And when we step back after it all and ask: "Well why not anyway? Why wouldn't there have been an Atlantis?" the mania to automatically and unquestioningly deny is revealed for what it is - immediate resort to an entrenched method of argument, as distinct from free-wheeling, free-spirited and open-minded enquiry, unfettered by Rationalist dogma, i.e. all explanations other than "scientific" ones are, by definition, bunkum and that non-naturalist phenomena do no exist.

Islands are known to have sunk. Why would an island not have sunk or even eight or ten of them? Look at the geological movements over the years. Why would a civilization have not sunk into the sea?

There's not even a Rationalist answer to that specific question: "Why not?" There is only the rush to "explain away". Why? The proposer finds himself cajoled into proving 'absolutely and definitively', when he need do no such thing. He abductively concluded, based on the available evidence, on his common sense and on his life experience, the most likely scenario. That's all. So when the Rationalist says:

"To prove Atlantis you have to prove that every more likely explanation for these features arising- ie the natural ones is simply wrong- we know for example in your example of the 'road'..."

… the answer to him, of course, is:

"To disprove Atlantis you have to prove that every more likely explanation for these features arising- ie the man-made ones is simply wrong - we know for example in your example of all except the 'road'..." e.g. Photo 1 and the pyramid.

So far, the Rationalist has singularly failed to do that.

[james elsewhere] russia [part 2] at ellee's

Part 1 was here. Part 2 can be found here.

[city quiz] identify these four

Clues

1 [Top left] The underground stations of this huge city are very old-worldly, with sculptures and statues, quaint fly-over walkways and dusky green trains.

2 [Top right] A pioneering city, Stanley Park and the bluish tinge to the landscape characterize it. It has a moist atmosphere and snow-capped mountains.

3 [Lower left] Once the capital of the country, unlike its northern neighbour, its old world charm and miles of beaches often make it the world's most livable.

4 [Lower right] Has an island in its river and the people are not as rude as their reputation. Some big money resides in this cultural capital.

Answers here.

[dating mark] high stakes and rational deception

Mark's Gospel is generally agreed to precede Luke and Matthew and must take into account the dating of Acts.

In dating Acts one must consider no mention of: the fall of Jerusalem, of Nero's persecutions in the mid-60s, of the martyrdoms of James (61), Paul (64), and Peter (65) and the general tone of Acts toward the Roman government being irenic. Acts ends with Paul in jail. Paul was executed by Nero in 64 A.D.

William F. Albright wrote, 'We can already say emphatically that there is no long any basis for dating any book of the New Testament after about A.D. 80, two full generations before the date between 130 and 150 given by the more radical New Testament critics of today.' (Recent discoveries in Bible Lands, 136)

Clement of Alexandria, claims that Mark wrote while Peter was preaching in Rome (cited in Eusebius, Historia ecclesiae 6.14.6-7). This is supported by Irenaeus, Tertullian, Papias and Origen.

The 7Q5 Fragment and the question of Q, used by apologists to early-date Mark, is not safe to use and won't be invoked here.

Paul N. Tobin, the eminent sceptic, stated the sceptics' case thus: "We know that the Jerusalem temple and, in fact, the whole city, was destroyed by the Romans in 70CE. If we take this utterance as a prophecy after the fact, this points to a date of composition of Mark after the fall of Jerusalem."

Thus, he assumes because Mark couldn't have had Jesus prophesy the fall of the temple on the grounds that Jesus could not have predicted that, therefore Mark must be dated after 70 A.D. The logical fallacy in that is breathtaking and a 70's date is clearly based on philosophical naturalism.

Doctor Bo Reicke put it more forthrightly: "it is nothing short of jingoistic and uncritical dogma to claim in New Testament criticism that the gospels must have been written after the Jewish revolt [AD 66-70], simply because they contain prophecies of the destruction of the second Temple which could only have been inserted at a later date". [Bo Riecke, Synoptic Prophecies on the Destruction of Jerusalem, in Nov. Test. Suppl. Leiden 1972, 121-134.]

It's the shoddy scholarship of the rationalists which is so upsetting, in any other field eminent but in the matter of Jesus, corner cutting in the worst way. An example is Wikipedia's assertion 'Gospel of Mark [anonymous]'. No, it's not anonymous at all. There is ample evidence of its authorship.

Regarding Jesus from non-biblical sources

It depends how one wishes to use Josephus. To prove divinity, it's shaky indeed because of the supposed insertion but enough is consistent with both his style, source material and purpose [his referring to the stoning of James]to establish the historicity of Jesus. Miami University Professor of History, Edwin M. Yamauchi is the foremost authority here.

Tacitus is more unequivocal and establishes Jesus beyond doubt but refers to superstitions and to believers believing, which of course does not establish divinity.

Suetonius is more flawed but is useful as viewed as additional material.

Pliny the Younger, around 112 A.D., provided an excellent record of the early Church, of course not specifically confirming the Resurrection but with one small reference to His followers believing in it.

The point of this

The divinity of Jesus depends not only on his prophecy in Mark but on the empty tomb and that's another field in itself. This article confines itself to the dating of Mark because as every atheistic, humanistic and rationalist 'scholar' infesting institutions of higher learning knows, to accept a pre-70 A.D. date provides a strong argument negating their position.

[flowers] a language all their own [3]

1] Allspice - Compassion

2] Buttercup - Cheerfulness

3] Carnation (white) - Woman's good luck gift

4] Carnation (yellow) - Rejection; disdain

5] Daisy - Innocence

6] Eucalyptus - Protection

7] Forget-me-not - True love; memories

8] Gladiolus - Love at first sight

9] Heather (white) - Protection; wishes will come true

10] Jasmine - Amiability; attracts wealth

11] Lavender - Devotion

12] Lily (eucharis) - Maiden charms

13] Magnolia - Sweetness; beauty; love of nature

14] Nasturtium - Conquest; victory in battle; patriotism

15] Poppy (general) - Eternal sleep

[worstall watch 4] an englishman's home

Tim brings this to our attention:

Not any longer it isn't, your home. There are 266 different legal powers available to force entry. Some eminently sensible (checking for gas leaks) and others not. Read this new report on the matter. A modest and sensible change is suggeted, too.

I'd like to add to this Gavin Ayling's post on the Regulation of Investigatory Powers Act [in the grim humour of the illuminists, acronymed R.I.P.].

Saturday, April 21, 2007

[blogfocus saturday] entertaining and provocative

Foreword: I'm not running UK Daily Pundit this evening for the simple reason that he's the next victim in the "Watch" series [Tim Worstall's the current victim]. So, straight down to it:

1 Highly entertaining post by L'Ombre on "tagging the senile":

Another one of those "Huh" moments. Some bright spark in HMG thinks we should tag our senile old grannies and grandpas and let the poor dears wander around the place on their own … I'm not a GPS expert but I can tell you that GPSes are not exactly pin-point accurate, especially in urban areas, and are total pants if you go inside buildings or enclosed metal vehicles.

Is she in the pub's beer garden having a snooze or 5m north on the other side of the wall by the rubbish bins? Is she walking across the highstreet using the bridge and stopping to admire the view or did she just step out in front of a car? … And that assumes she's remembered to put the thing on, has had the battery charged up etc.

But I have a concrete suggestion. Tag our politicians and civil servants and let them see how well the system works first. For extra fun and games make sure the tag has a high voltage shocker for those periods when the scum need a bit of a reminder and let random members of the public decide when to set them off.

2 Trixy reveals something just as entertaining:

Driving to the office this morning on the M25 motorway, I looked over to my right and there was a woman in a brand new Audi A4 convertible' doing 90 miles an hour with her face up close to her rear view mirror putting on her lipstick! I looked away for a couple of seconds and when I looked back she was halfway over in my lane still working on the lipstick!

It scared me (and this coming from a bloke....) so much that I dropped my electric shaver, which knocked the bacon roll out of my other hand. In all the confusion of trying to straighten up the car using my knees against the steering wheel, it knocked my mobile from my ear, which fell into the coffee between my legs, causing it to splash and burn BIG JIM AND THE TWINS, causing me to scream, which made me drop the cigarette out of my mouth, ruined my shirt and DISCONNECTED A VERY IMPORTANT CALL.

Women Drivers!!!!!!!

3 Tom Paine says "hold on a moment" to the Brits who rushed to judgement over the Virginia killings:

Britain's anti-American media were all over the sad story of the V-Tech killings. They tore gleefully into America's "gun culture" and its people in general. Let's get this straight. This horror didn't happen because the killer was American. It didn't happen because he was ethnically Korean. It happened because the poor young man was mad.

Some Britons seem to enjoy it when something like this happens in America, but Britain has no moral standing to judge America harshly. Violent crime is declining in America and rising in Britain. The risk of being violently attacked in England & Wales is already higher than in America and rising. In Scotland," the situation is worse.

4 Toque's come up with an idea:

"Health and social work; Education and training; Local government and housing; Justice and police; Agriculture, forestry and fisheries; The environment; Tourism, sport and heritage, and; Economic development and internal transport."

Unlike the Scots the English will not be voting to elect MPs to represent them in these devolved areas because England does not have its own parliament. Instead British MPs in the UK Parliament will continue to decide upon these matters for England.

But what if England had its own parliament?

5 It's not just Fabian Tassano's post but the comments which follow it which need to be read on this issue:

One of the supposed aims of the socialist project is to replace "privilege" with "meritocracy". (Except that lately meritocracy has fallen out of favour with the Left — Anthony Giddens, for example, claims it is "socially destructive".)

But the original aim was seriously misconceived to begin with. As history has shown time and again, a system which claims to be against elitism merely ends up with a different elite. Or sometimes simply with the same elite, under a different name.

6 Vox Day can certainly write - it's not for his shock-power he has his readership. This is one of his more uncharacteristic self-examinations:

While it's extremely unjust that Cho chose to unleash his revenge on those who didn't mistreat him, it's not hard to understand that source of inner rage that years of constant abuse at school produces.

Being nearly a year younger than most of the people in my school class and too socially clueless to hide my intelligence, I was unlucky enough to be one of those on the bottom of the social totem pole for most of elementary school and junior high. It was a combination of three things that changed my social fortunes and my subsequent outlook:

1. Because I developed open contempt for my teachers before anyone else did ...

2. Scoring six goals in one game against our archrivals ...

3. The kindness of one of the most popular guys in our class ...

7 Not a great deal of doubt about what Gates of Vienna is about and that's in keeping with the "outspoken" theme this evening. Baron Bodissey:

Prince Alwaleed bin Talal is the generous fellow from Saudi Arabia who offered New York City ten million dollars after 9/11. The money didn’t come without strings — New York was to help promote greater understanding about Islam — so Mayor Rudy Giuliani told the prince that he could take his money and go home.

But not everyone in America is as principled as Rudy, and the Saudis have been busy over the last few years endowing chairs and establishing study centers at universities across the length and breadth of the Great Satan.

Georgetown University has been one of the beneficiaries of Prince bin Talal’s largesse, and the institution that was once a light of Jesuit learning has become a propaganda arm of the Umma.

8 Long, long time since Bryan Appleyard was quoted. He needeth not the hits, he needeth not the mention but mention him we must:

So, I conclude, it is time to say something about philosophy itself. I don't go all the way with my friend - a distinguished thinker who would probably not wish to be named in this context - when he says philosophy is just arguments about arguments or that it is little more than a way of finding good reasons to hold utterly conventional views. But I do go quite a long way. I don't think Daniel Dennett, for example, is a philosopher at all, but merely a flunky at the court of secular, materialist scientism.

He's just there to assure Dawkins and friends that they are wonderful in every way. I find no sense of exploration or meditation in Dennett. Much academic philosophy is like this and I am constantly disappointed when, having read the works of hyper-intelligent philosophers, I find they are, in the real world, amazingly, well, unamazing.

That's it until Tuesday, when I have Blognor Regis in my sights.

[atlantis] the bimini and other questions

As it's nearly impossible to approach any topic with an open mind, for a long time my research method has been to approach a hypothesis with a desire to believe it from the very first, to run with the idea, to adopt it, research it and argue for it, then see how the idea holds up over time.

If the idea proves truly insupportable on current evidence, e.g. the world is flat, then it dies a natural death and isn't mentioned again. But if it really does have something about it, then it never dies a death but continues to challenge.

Here are four hypotheses:

1] Tony Blair's government and the EU are destroying Britain as we know it;

2] Jesus Christ has the capacity to save you from hell;

3] Climate change is happening;

4] Atlantis certainly existed as a civilization.

Reactions like "well, you got one out of four right" or "it's been scientifically disproved" or "that's simply rubbish" or "N1 and N2 are two completely separate issues" - these, I'm afraid, cut no ice.

They're not proof, they're only opinion.

A considerable number of people have put all four forward as valid hypotheses and all have documentation to support them. You can say: "Prove them," and I say: "Disprove them."

No takers.

No one has definitively disproved any of these four. Therefore, for now, the weight of truth is on their side. I'm not being deliberately belligerent or provocative here but I am searching for the truth. Let's go with Atlantis, for example:

In support

Dr. Heinrich Schliemann ran some tests on some Central American vases and some from Troy and concluded that they had been made from the same peculiar clay, not existing in either place.

Dr. Paul Schliemann [the grandson] was advised to break a Trojan clay 'owl' vase by his grandfather and he found a square of metal inside, too big for the neck of the vase, engraved in ancient Phoenician.

In 1958, Dr. William Bell took photos on the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean of a six-foot spire. There were light emanations from the bottom of the shaft.

In 1968, pilot Capt. Robert Brush and co-pilot Trigg Adams, spotted a rectangular feature in the shallow waters off Andros. Avec la découverte, en 1968, de ce qui sembla être une gigantesque route formée de rochers polygonaux dans des eaux peu profondes au large de l'île de Bimini, beaucoup pensèrent être très proches de la découverte imminente de l'Atlantide.

On September 2nd, 1968, M. Valentine dived and discovered "The Bimini Road". The 'road' is found about 800 metres out from Paradise Point, Bimini North Island, in five metres of water, and its length is of 638 metres, in a J shape. Fallen monoliths and a three-metre ring of large stones were also discovered.

In 1969, Robert Fero and Michael Grumley found pillars on the Atlantic floor. The rock from which parts of them were made was not found in that part of the world.

In 1970, Dr. Ray Brown, a naturopathic practitioner and lecturer from Mesa (Arizona), was diving in the Berry Islands, Bahamas with five others. They found a pyramid illumined inside, with rooms. He said that in the centre of the room there was a slab and on the pyramid slab was a crystal held by two hands. The hands seemed to be made of copper. A metallic rod was hanging down from the ceiling and its end was a multi-faceted red gem, pointing to the crystal.

He removed the crystal and still has it and shows it to lecture audiences. The crystal seems to have been tested by the University of Florida and the result was that the crystal amplifies energy that passed through it.

In 1974, Dr. David Zink visited and reported: "The ocean floor is essentially level, not sloping."

In 1978, Ari Marshall photographed a 650-foot pyramid at about 1500 feet underwater, off Cay Sal.

In 1982, Herbert Sawinski, explorer, diver, and chairman of the Museum of Science and Archeology in Fort Lauderdale, found and photographed stone pavements at a depth of 25 feet, in the North of Cuba. The main wall continued for a quarter of a mile out to sea, then it disappeared into 2500 feet of water.

In contradiction

Science gives this explanation: the formation is natural, a result of the water being supersaturated with calcium carbonate. A continual deposition of calcium carbonate sediment is responsible for the cementation process, which had actually built the whole Bahama Banks. This calcium concentration helps with the rapid formation of limestone beach rock.

Sea-level has been constantly rising since 15,000 B.C., and for 600-700 years it has witnessed a continuous fluctuation, that accounts for the parallel, linear 'road'. The different levels of water, the sun exposure, and the calcium carbonate are the true 'builders' of the 'road'.

Samples were taken from the core of the rocks, in a way to show the orientation of each block. [This] means that the rocks were once part of a"single ribbon of beach rock" (Eugene A. Shinn, geologist).

Decision

Today I asked a client to look at Photos 1 and 2 and asked her, before any explanations were given: "Were these underwater rock formations made by humans or by the natural action of the earth and sea?" She said "human" to both. Doesn't prove much but see what you think.

My own opinion, as of now, is that no one's yet disproved it but it looks mighty likely to be true.

[If you were to argue against the Bimini Road, this is a good place to start - the tesselated pavements.]

[worstall watch 3] when old firms finally expire

Tim writes of things which come to an end, like this:

The world's oldest continuously operating family business ended its impressive run last year. Japanese temple builder Kongo Gumi, in operation under the founders' descendants since 578, succumbed to excess debt and an unfavorable business climate in 2006.

Now, everything does indeed come to an end and yes, I'm certain that the founders didn't think it would last that long either. But has there been any country or political system that has lasted as long? I certainly can't think of any.

For me, this is kinda sad. Business has no compassion but still - couldn't anyone have clubbed together to keep this one afloat?