Sunday, April 22, 2007

[bad science] the fallacy of the rationalist

Abduction, or inference to the best explanation, is a method of reasoning in which one chooses the hypothesis which would, if true, best explain the relevant evidence.

Deductive reasoning is the kind of reasoning in which the conclusion is necessitated by, or reached from, previously known facts (the premises). If the premises are true, the conclusion must be true.

Inductive reasoning is the process of reasoning in which the premises of an argument are believed to support the conclusion but do not ensure it. It is used to ascribe properties or relations to types based on tokens (i.e., on one or a small number of observations or experiences); or to formulate laws based on limited observations of recurring phenomenal patterns.

The problem with the Rationalist is that he wishes to apply deductive constraints on the proposer whilst not applying them to himself. A proposer who argues abductively that, on the given evidence, something is likely to be so suddenly finds the Rationalist trying to impose a system of logic other than that employed and which is inappropriate for the situation.

This is bad science but the Rationalist denier is an old hand at this game. Moving to the particular, there is an author quoted in another post:

"...he shows how its possible for a group of people to misinterpret a laundry list as evidence for the conquest of the world - the first is likely the second unlikely ..."

To which I replied:

And of course, perfectly possible for a group of people to so inure themselves against all but a rationalist explanation, carefully selecting evidence to quote and ignoring the rest.

In the case of Atlantis, the Bimini road has an alternative explanation but is only one of many pieces of evidence - the pyramid which shone, the evidence of your eyes in Photo 1 in that post, [which has zero to do with natural phenomena], the vases and the metal plate with the hieroglyphics - it goes on and on.

The Rationalist takes the Bimini, for which there IS an alternative explanation [I included the Tasmanian link here] and extrapolates that in general to mean that ALL the evidence has an alternative. But that, of course, is just not so and is poor reasoning.

And in the case of Atlantis, there is no need to resort to such arguments, as the physical evidence is substantive to begin with. A pyramid with rooms is a pyramid with rooms. Looking at Photo 1 again, it can only be with grim determination that one could say that that walkway, where the divers are, was naturally formed.

And when we step back after it all and ask: "Well why not anyway? Why wouldn't there have been an Atlantis?" the mania to automatically and unquestioningly deny is revealed for what it is - immediate resort to an entrenched method of argument, as distinct from free-wheeling, free-spirited and open-minded enquiry, unfettered by Rationalist dogma, i.e. all explanations other than "scientific" ones are, by definition, bunkum and that non-naturalist phenomena do no exist.

Islands are known to have sunk. Why would an island not have sunk or even eight or ten of them? Look at the geological movements over the years. Why would a civilization have not sunk into the sea?

There's not even a Rationalist answer to that specific question: "Why not?" There is only the rush to "explain away". Why? The proposer finds himself cajoled into proving 'absolutely and definitively', when he need do no such thing. He abductively concluded, based on the available evidence, on his common sense and on his life experience, the most likely scenario. That's all. So when the Rationalist says:

"To prove Atlantis you have to prove that every more likely explanation for these features arising- ie the natural ones is simply wrong- we know for example in your example of the 'road'..."

… the answer to him, of course, is:

"To disprove Atlantis you have to prove that every more likely explanation for these features arising- ie the man-made ones is simply wrong - we know for example in your example of all except the 'road'..." e.g. Photo 1 and the pyramid.

So far, the Rationalist has singularly failed to do that.

[james elsewhere] russia [part 2] at ellee's

Part 1 was here. Part 2 can be found here.

[city quiz] identify these four

Clues

1 [Top left] The underground stations of this huge city are very old-worldly, with sculptures and statues, quaint fly-over walkways and dusky green trains.

2 [Top right] A pioneering city, Stanley Park and the bluish tinge to the landscape characterize it. It has a moist atmosphere and snow-capped mountains.

3 [Lower left] Once the capital of the country, unlike its northern neighbour, its old world charm and miles of beaches often make it the world's most livable.

4 [Lower right] Has an island in its river and the people are not as rude as their reputation. Some big money resides in this cultural capital.

Answers here.

[dating mark] high stakes and rational deception

Mark's Gospel is generally agreed to precede Luke and Matthew and must take into account the dating of Acts.

In dating Acts one must consider no mention of: the fall of Jerusalem, of Nero's persecutions in the mid-60s, of the martyrdoms of James (61), Paul (64), and Peter (65) and the general tone of Acts toward the Roman government being irenic. Acts ends with Paul in jail. Paul was executed by Nero in 64 A.D.

William F. Albright wrote, 'We can already say emphatically that there is no long any basis for dating any book of the New Testament after about A.D. 80, two full generations before the date between 130 and 150 given by the more radical New Testament critics of today.' (Recent discoveries in Bible Lands, 136)

Clement of Alexandria, claims that Mark wrote while Peter was preaching in Rome (cited in Eusebius, Historia ecclesiae 6.14.6-7). This is supported by Irenaeus, Tertullian, Papias and Origen.

The 7Q5 Fragment and the question of Q, used by apologists to early-date Mark, is not safe to use and won't be invoked here.

Paul N. Tobin, the eminent sceptic, stated the sceptics' case thus: "We know that the Jerusalem temple and, in fact, the whole city, was destroyed by the Romans in 70CE. If we take this utterance as a prophecy after the fact, this points to a date of composition of Mark after the fall of Jerusalem."

Thus, he assumes because Mark couldn't have had Jesus prophesy the fall of the temple on the grounds that Jesus could not have predicted that, therefore Mark must be dated after 70 A.D. The logical fallacy in that is breathtaking and a 70's date is clearly based on philosophical naturalism.

Doctor Bo Reicke put it more forthrightly: "it is nothing short of jingoistic and uncritical dogma to claim in New Testament criticism that the gospels must have been written after the Jewish revolt [AD 66-70], simply because they contain prophecies of the destruction of the second Temple which could only have been inserted at a later date". [Bo Riecke, Synoptic Prophecies on the Destruction of Jerusalem, in Nov. Test. Suppl. Leiden 1972, 121-134.]

It's the shoddy scholarship of the rationalists which is so upsetting, in any other field eminent but in the matter of Jesus, corner cutting in the worst way. An example is Wikipedia's assertion 'Gospel of Mark [anonymous]'. No, it's not anonymous at all. There is ample evidence of its authorship.

Regarding Jesus from non-biblical sources

It depends how one wishes to use Josephus. To prove divinity, it's shaky indeed because of the supposed insertion but enough is consistent with both his style, source material and purpose [his referring to the stoning of James]to establish the historicity of Jesus. Miami University Professor of History, Edwin M. Yamauchi is the foremost authority here.

Tacitus is more unequivocal and establishes Jesus beyond doubt but refers to superstitions and to believers believing, which of course does not establish divinity.

Suetonius is more flawed but is useful as viewed as additional material.

Pliny the Younger, around 112 A.D., provided an excellent record of the early Church, of course not specifically confirming the Resurrection but with one small reference to His followers believing in it.

The point of this

The divinity of Jesus depends not only on his prophecy in Mark but on the empty tomb and that's another field in itself. This article confines itself to the dating of Mark because as every atheistic, humanistic and rationalist 'scholar' infesting institutions of higher learning knows, to accept a pre-70 A.D. date provides a strong argument negating their position.

[flowers] a language all their own [3]

1] Allspice - Compassion

2] Buttercup - Cheerfulness

3] Carnation (white) - Woman's good luck gift

4] Carnation (yellow) - Rejection; disdain

5] Daisy - Innocence

6] Eucalyptus - Protection

7] Forget-me-not - True love; memories

8] Gladiolus - Love at first sight

9] Heather (white) - Protection; wishes will come true

10] Jasmine - Amiability; attracts wealth

11] Lavender - Devotion

12] Lily (eucharis) - Maiden charms

13] Magnolia - Sweetness; beauty; love of nature

14] Nasturtium - Conquest; victory in battle; patriotism

15] Poppy (general) - Eternal sleep

[worstall watch 4] an englishman's home

Tim brings this to our attention:

Not any longer it isn't, your home. There are 266 different legal powers available to force entry. Some eminently sensible (checking for gas leaks) and others not. Read this new report on the matter. A modest and sensible change is suggeted, too.

I'd like to add to this Gavin Ayling's post on the Regulation of Investigatory Powers Act [in the grim humour of the illuminists, acronymed R.I.P.].