[world] the other powder keg - korea [2]

This is not a journalistic article – it is merely collated research and you can draw your own conclusions.

Further to part 1, the other powder keg - korea, hopes of a re-opening of the six nation’s talks under the umbrella of the ASEAN conference depend on the real positions of the various combatants.

There is national interest involved and the complication of forthcoming elections, creating posturing on the part of potential national leaders and though historical precedent and lingering resentment have not in the past, in themselves, resulted in war, nevertheless they do provide convenient pretexts for pre-emptive strikes.

For example, Asia Times reported, in 2004 that:

The abduction of 13 Japanese nationals by North Korea in the late 1970s and early 1980s is the major stumbling block to improving diplomatic relations. When Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi made a historic trip to the North in September 2002, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il admitted that government agents abducted the Japanese nationals, eight of whom reportedly died.

As for the tone of the reaction to the missile firing, Japan Times reported:

South Korea, which has pushed rapprochement with the North, condemned Pyongyang's action. Russia joined in the criticism, saying the missile firings complicated the situation surrounding North Korea's nuclear program. China declined comment at first, but said later it was watching the situation closely and urged the countries concerned to remain coolheaded.

One complication is the amount of sabre rattling from the North. The Taipei Times reports this sort of rhetoric on the part of General Kim:

"The general has declared that not even a tiny concession will be made to the imperialist US invaders, our archenemy," said a broadcast on North Korean state television.
Kim, who never speaks himself in public, said that if the US took "revenge," it would mean "all-out war."
"It is not empty talk for the DPRK [the Democratic People's Republic of Korea] to respond with revenge to any revenge by the enemy and with all-out war to an all-out war," the TV said.

Bloomberg reported yesterday:

"North Korea is the key player, so without North Korea's participation, there is no way we, Asean, can facilitate the dialogue,'' Indonesian Foreign Minister Hassan Wirajuda told reporters in Kuala Lumpur. "All six members are here, so one way or another, we should encourage any meeting.''

Representatives from 16 nations will take part in the 13th Asean Regional Forum on July 28, according to Asean.

Rice will arrive in Kuala Lumpur tomorrow and hold a joint press conference with Malaysian Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar at 5:05 p.m. Malaysian time on July 28, Asean said in a statement. North Korea's Paek has confirmed his participation, Syed Hamid said today.

ASEAN regional forum adds that:

South Korean Deputy Foreign Minister Chun Yung-Woo told reporters that a five-nation formula was "one option that is being considered but the goal at the moment is to hold six-party talks."

However, RIA Novosti was more pessimistic:

Moscow sees little chance for a resumption of six-party negotiations on the Korean peninsula's nuclear problem, especially a five-nation meeting without North Korea at an Asian security forum, a Foreign Ministry source said.

"There have been proposals to conduct negotiations in Kuala Lumpur - not specific proposals, however, but just an idea that was aired in Beijing on the level of experts," the source said. He said a multilateral meeting on the problem in Kuala Lumpur was unlikely, adding, however, that "everything could yet change."

But he said Russia would hold bilateral contacts with all parties to the six-nation dialogue on North Korea's nuclear program.

Herein lies one of the stumbling blocks – Russia wishing to play the negotiator, the US with the big stick and China essentially keeping its own counsel.

Spacewar, which is not a source I would ordinarily quote from, reports the words spoken by US Envoy Christopher Hill:

He said he was also ready to meet North Korea bilaterally if Beijing succeeded in organizing a round of informal six-way talks in the northeastern Chinese city of Shenyang.
"Even within the informal six-party talks? Yes, I can," Hill said. "I just can't do it when they are boycotting the six-party talks," he said after meeting South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-Moon.
The United States has had more than once met bilaterally with the North on the side since 2003 so this is a departure.

So the ARF, which began on July 28th, is the last realistic chance for some time to bring North Korea back to he negotiating table but your guess is as good as mine as to whether the postulating is simply jockeying for a better negotiated result or whether there is a real chance that national agendas must irrevocably clash and the flashpoint be reached.

And that has been the basis of the major wars since the mid 20th century, only here we are dealing with Eastern temperaments and national pride.

[world] the other powder keg - korea [1]

Remember the TV series MASH?

Everyone has been concentrating on the Middle-East but why have all eyes moved away from North Korea? There appear to be fashions in wars – first Iraq, Iran and now the flavour of the month – Israel. My attempt to draw people’s attention to Northern Ireland was roundly ignored.

The Six Party Talks - the US, Russia, China, Japan, North Korea and South Korea have been a total dud but it’s perhaps a little unfair to the US to single them out for the failure. It’s mind has been somewhat preoccupied lately.

With Shinzo Abe poised for victory as the new Prime Minister in Japan, watchers are deeply concerned by his nationalistic posturing and aggressive attitude to North Korea. Yasuo Fukuda, the aging moderate, now appears to have little chance.

Instead, Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki appears to be the only candidate who can oppose him in the current behind the scenes negotiations.

Park Geun-hye, the former strong man’s daughter, is also trying out for President in the South and that can only mean a reversal of the thaw over the last decade between the two Koreas.

So there seems a three way belligerence looming in the area and the mind boggles in contemplation of the scenario of a triple pre-emptive strike, just as the Middle-East reaches its next gruesome stage.

Then the fallout from the missile tests has to be taken into account. This had the effect of worsening already strained Sino-Japanese relations. The Yasukuni Shrine visit hardly helped and the fear of a new Chinese hegemony in the area has refuelled Japanese nationalism to a startling degree.

The result of all of the above is a powder keg just waiting for the first match.

If the US could just look over its shoulder for one moment [an expression I used about the IRA in an earlier piece], they would surely see the necessity to move hell and high water to push for a solution.

Perhaps it might even be the trigger for the much vaunted US/Russian co-operation - both have an enormous amount to lose. Even the beginner’s military textbook says that the less fronts you fight a war on, the greater your chances of an acceptable result.

Keep your eye on this one.

[living] dressing the french way

How do French women manage to achieve the look they do? Even when dressed down [as above], they still have that certain something which mystifies most Anglo-Saxons . However, there are some rules which can be followed:

No. 1: Blend. A French woman strives to unify all the elements into a seamless whole. The stripes and the jeans will be a neutral colour, the bangles will be bone or cocoa. They allow accessories to float on a basic canvas and blend a look together.

No. 2: Softness. All clothes except your suit and your classic white blouse must look supple, not starched. And that goes for hair as well. Highlights must never be noticeable and makeup borders on the bland. For a good example of French restraint look at Clarins models’ golden natural glow.

No. 3: One item noticeable. Despite the fixation with natural and neutral tones, every French woman wears one flirty item: high heels, a leather skirt, a skim of black eyeliner, a choker. The trick is just one item - never two - and that’s the hard part.

No. 4: One expensive classic. A Vuitton bag, a Hermes scarf, a pair of Charles Jourdan heels, diamond earrings - these remain the cornerstone of a chic wardrobe no matter what your age. The young wear them with jeans, the older with pencil skirts and cashmere sweaters cut low. Kept in immaculate condition, a French woman will wear her Kelly bag for life and simply change the clothes around it.

No. 5: Flatter your body. Pleasure in being a woman is the philosophy of French dressing. Silk lingerie, lace stockings. Dressing to flatter your body and investing in well-cut basics allow for eccentric touches.

No. 6 Signature item. Find what you love and make it your signature. It might be long flowing hair and short velvet gloves or chisel toed boots and mini-skirts.

No. 7: Less. Nothing blatant will do. Anglo-Saxon style is about the big statement. French style is always a matter of less. Less is so much more! Less clashing colours, less makeup, less costume jewellery, less fur but one ravishing perfume.

No. 8: Class. No piercing, tattoos or multiple earrings. These are from the bordello and are really quite ugly. French women would not lower themselves this way when there are so many other ways to stand out.

No. 9: Grooming. Clothes, hair and makeup must be immaculately kept. Simple glossy hair, tied back, looks vastly better than a highly structured style. Eyebrows trimmed to perfection lessen the need for eyeshadow and mascara.

No. 10: Little black dress. The most essential item in any woman's wardrobe. Whether it's a holiday party or New Year's celebration, basic black is the basic statement.

No. 11: Perfectly tailored suit. Look for one in which the jackets and pants or skirt can be worn separately, that can be paired with jeans and a stylish pant that can take you from work to cocktails.

No. 12: Leather jacket. Sexy, cool. equally chic with denim or a dress, a leather jacket can last a lifetime. A timeless shape is best.

No. 13: A well-cut trench coat. As in the photo above, it should allow for layers underneath yet isn't so roomy that it adds bulk to the figure. The colour and fabric usually suit autumn or winter.

No. 14: Knee-high boots. Lend instant drama to any ensemble, whether a denim mini or an intricate black lace skirt. Lush leather with a sensible yet chic heel are best.

No. 15: Strappy black sandals. Platform styles are too passe and high heels are too painful in summer. Small, low open shoes are the way.

This article relies heavily on pieces by Anna Johnson and Diana Pemberton-Sikes.

[world] israel is the vanguard

This is a personal statement, devoid of linked references, devoid of attempts at intellectual cleverness, devoid of anything but a shell-shocked reaction to what is happening at this troubled time.

The Christian perspective, for all the criticism it attracts, can give you a different take. For a start, Revelations becomes relevant. Also Ephesians 6:12. Also Isaiah and Daniel. You can tear all these to shreds as you wish but if you run with these ideas for a little while and view the current events through this filter, you begin to see a whole new ball game.

Don’t get me wrong - I believe that many of the currently proposed theories hold water – as far as they go. Yes – Iran and Syria are trying to destabilize Israel. Yes, Israel is intransigent. Yes, the BBC, the FCO and the Establishment are pro-Arab. Yes, the US is supplying weapons to Israel. Yes, Hezbollah are everything which has been said about them.

I also believe, after sifting through hundreds and hundreds of documents, just letting them take me to where they led, that there is a third and even a fourth player in all this.

On the temporal level, do not discount China’s role. Just research their moves in the last year and a half – it’s easy enough to access, if you know the questions to ask.

Hence the name of my site.

Also, on the temporal side, there is not the slightest doubt in the world that the Finance is very closely interwoven into it. But it really goes without saying, doesn’t it? Where it becomes very, very interesting is when you adopt Deep Throat’s advice to Woodstein in the Watergate saga:

Follow the money.

It’s interesting, precisely because of the barriers and obstacles strewn in your path as you do this. The closer you get, the more you need to back off.

So let’s come back to Israel. Doesn’t anybody except Israel understand that, fundamentally, this thing has absolutely nothing to do with Jewish/Arab antagonism? Israel is simply the first and the last bastion against global conflagration. Do you think that if Israel goes under, if Europe fails to lift a hand, that Europe or any of the West is going to stand very much longer?

And if you think I’m referring to Islamic conquest, then you’re not piercing through to the core of this matter.

[living] writer on sunday - gene weingarten

Gene Weingarten is a journalist and writer who runs a column called Below the Beltway in the Washington Post on Sunday. To access his pieces online, you need to go to the site, find the little panel to the lower left, scroll down until you find him and click.

He could also be described as a sort of blogger, in that he hosts a forum on Tuesdays at the Post Online.

He’s described as a humour writer and he certainly follows that prime directive, his Sunday articles being a must read with the early morning coffee. This, below, is from a piece called Eau de Toilet, describing his terrifying experience alone in a high end perfumerie, trying to select a gift for his wife:

Calling French perfume "pricey" is a significant understatement, like calling a tsunami "moist." Your typical ounce costs a C-note. I decided that I was going to shop intelligently and not lose my head.

Immediately, I lost my head.

I blame it on the fumes, but it may also be because perfume saleswomen tend to be young and lovely and will frequently, without warning, offer you their necks to smell.

The fact is, after about half an hour of perfume shopping, I was cheerfully looking at $150 liquids in quantities that could fit into a contact lens case.

Fortunately for me, everything stank.

He deviates from such fare from time to time to comment on the political scene and describes here the run up to the election in which Michael Dukakis was the Democratic candidate:

During the 1987-88 year, Nieman curator Howard Simons took all of us Fellows to meet a man who was running for president. Michael Dukakis … Dukakis was terrific, we said. Impressive. Commanding. Presidential. We were falling all over each other to find adequate superlatives.

Howard heard us all out, then shook his head and said: "Won't win. No sense of humor."

The Post sent him to Israel to ‘live’ what it was actually like under the threat of constant death and the result was a long piece entitled Fear Itself. Now widely acclaimed and available on the web, it put him in, as I wrote to him, ‘Great danger of losing the ‘humorous’ tag and being taken as a serious writer of note.’

This is from the introduction:

So here's a question: Would you ride a bus in Jerusalem? Right now? Here's your 5 1/2 shekels, go take a bus to market, buy some figs. Pick a bad day, after the Israelis have assassinated some terrorist leaders and everyone is waiting for the second sandal to drop. There are lots of buses in Jerusalem -- the odds are still long in your favor. Do you take that dare?

A few weeks ago, I did just that: boarded a bus on just such a day, and rode for nearly an hour. I did it because I wanted to better understand the psychology of terror. Not the psychology of the terrorist -- the psychology of the terrorized.

After 9/11, Americans are concerned enough by terror to be waging a costly war against it. But, by and large, the fear of terrorism has not seeped into our bones. We are new to this thing. The Israelis are not. Terrorism creates a hierarchy of fear; theirs is greater than ours.

Hence, this trip. Call it a scouting report.

Maybe these two commenters sum him up better than most:

Thanks for your excellent article. It was particularly gripping for me, because I felt that I lived what you described. I was in Jerusalem on Aug. 9, 2001, and was just two blocks from the Sbarro restaurant when I heard the loud explosion. In fact, had my wife not changed her mind so that we stopped at another pizza store to grab a bite instead of continuing on our original plan to eat at Sbarro, we might have been among the victims of that attack.

And another:

A great article. We sometimes forget that you're not "only" a writer of humor, and this is an excellent reminder.

Today, if you click on the Post site, you’ll get the more humourous side.

[living] blogger of the day – samantha brett

Controversial? But of course. A phenomenon? Undoubtedly. Any woman who can get 600 or 700 comments on one of her postings is a phenomenon and it appears she’s now taking the world by storm:

"Sam and the city blog" 11 July 2006 Hindustan Times, India

"Stewth mate! We love this blog" 07 July 2006 Iol Technology, South Africa

"Sex and romance blog rides Australia's Internet dating explosion" 06 July 2006 Yahoo! News International

"At 22, Sam Brett, is one of Australia's most widely read writers." 06 July 2006 Antara News, Indonesia

"Sydney's very own Carrie Bradshaw" - Daily Telegraph.

So who is she?

Author, journalist, reviewer, text messager extraordinaire – this is Samantha Brett. Born in South Africa but moving to Sydney, Australia, she has carved out a career, speaking on matters of love, text and sex.

What’s all the fuss about? Look at one of her postings and you’ll get the idea:

That said, perhaps next time you reach in for the kiss, remember a few golden rules: have moist lips (although too much lip gloss is a definite turn off), keep your tongue soft (find a good balance between not too much action, but not too little), and always have slab of minty gum on hand.

For this reason alone, I wan't sure at first but gradually modified that view as I saw what she was really about. There is a lot more going down than the above.

She sometimes has upwards of 400 commenters on any one posting and testimonials are common and regular. Simply reading other people’s stories of heartache, related to your own situation, can be amazingly cathartic, something I can attest to.

There also seems to be a dating scene based around her Sydney blogs. She’s no agony aunt – that’s not her purpose - but the lady certainly has something going. What that something is, I’m still not absolutely sure about.

I’ve never seen a journo/blogger before who so assiduously answers e-mails, encourages feedback to the extent she does and who charms you to this degree. She has her detractors, to be sure, her vilifiers, and they can be found on the internet; and their vitriol convinces me they’ve never dealt with the lady on the personal front. Does she worry? She has too many other things to do.

This is one serious achiever.