[kosovo] february independence or holocaust

Otto von Bismark was right on the money:

If there is ever another war in Europe, it will come out of some damned silly thing in the Balkans.

Kosovo is in the process of announcing independence right now in January/February 2008, backed by the troika of the U.S., Britain and France and once various elections are out of the way:

In his comments to reporters, Mr Thaci [Kosovo Province president] repeated earlier statements that a declaration would be made in co-ordination with the European Union and the United States.

However:

A declaration of independence by Kosovo's President or Prime Minister is expected to be followed by a similar announcement from Serb leaders in northern Kosovo. "You can be sure of that. It will happen the very same day or the next day," said Oliver Ivanovic, a moderate Serb politician in northern Kosovo.

Spengler of the Asian Times says:

If Serbia and Russia draw a line in the sand over the independence of Kosovo, we may observe the second occasion in history when a Muslim advance on Europe halted on Serbian soil. The first occurred in 1456, three years after the fall of Constantinople, when Sultan Mehmed II was thrown back from the walls of Belgrade, "The White City", by Hungarian and Serb defenders.

The Siege of Belgrade "decided the fate of Christendom", wrote the then Pope Calixtus III. Not for nothing did J R R Tolkien name his fictional stronghold of Minas Tirith "The White City".

Serbia and Russia are correct to offer partition rather than independence for Kosovo, that is, breaking off the Christian-majority municipalities of the north and attaching them to Serbia proper, while permitting the Muslim majority to determine its own fate. This is the obvious, humane and common sense solution; the fact that the State Department refuses to consider it inflames Russia's worst fears about America's intent.

Former ambassador Richard Holbrooke warned in the March 13 Washington Post that war would erupt if Russia attempted to "water down" the Kosovo independence plan. Holbrooke added, "Moscow 's point about protecting fraternal Slav-Serb feelings is nonsense; everyone who has dealt with the Russians on the Balkans, as I did for several years, knows that their leadership has no feelings whatsoever for the Serbs."

Now two EU states have decided not to ratify independence:

Romania and Cyprus have warned that they will not recognise any unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo. In addition to Romania and Cyprus, EU members Spain, Greece and Slovakia fear recognition could fuel separatist movements elsewhere. Russia says independence should not go ahead until Belgrade agrees to it. Serbian leaders strongly oppose independence for UN-administered Kosovo.

At this point, it's as well to note Bismark's comment, as it is more apt today than ever before - the build up of the EU Army and the continued presence of U.S. troops in the Balkans without any specific purpose is an interesting development.

The logical solution is partition, as it avoids bloodshed but this will not be listened to by the international community, certain elements who appear to be shaping up for the conflagration they must know will ensue, given Serbia's past record.