[turkey] let them in, shut them out

Sarko is undoubtedly doing well in France but his intransigence on Turkey may be based on something known and maybe on national prejudice [good for votes back home]. This is good:

Turkey will hold a general election on July 22, and opinion polls show that Erdogan's pro-business, centre-right AK party will win the most votes.

Turkish financial markets have soared in the past week, partly on the assumption that the AK will stay in power, but lack the 367 seats needed to change the constitution.

The party has presided over strong economic growth, falling inflation and the historic launch of European Union accession talks since being voted into power in November 2002.

Our government's perspective here and mine too, for what it's worth, is that we and many others around the area are heavily dependent on a stable, secular Turkey. The brand of Islam we have in this country is immensely tolerant and naturally we'd like to see something similar continue in Turkey.

The great fear is that the real power is fundamentalist and biding its time until Turkey joins the EU, then the current secularization will be encroached on and encroached on until it's a fundamentalist nation within the EU citadel. Perhaps this is what Sarko fears.

On the other hand, one source here said the other day that if Turkey is not allowed in to trade, the fundamentalists will sweep to power in a putsch and we will have another Iran on our doorstep.

And no one wants that.