Thursday, September 04, 2008

[arctic shelf] delving behind the statement


First the news:

Arctic ice shelf specialist Derek Mueller of the Trent University in Ontario, Canada said the 19-square-mile shelf is now drifting in the Arctic Ocean after breaking loose in early August. The chunk of ice sheet was part of the 4,500-year-old Markham Ice Shelf.

He adds the event underscores how rapid changes are taking place in the Arctic due to global warming.

So he supports the contention of global warming which bloggers assure us is not happening. First step is to play devil's advocate and find the dirt on him which would support the climate sceptic bloggers.

His CV says he completed two years of postdoctoral work at the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska Fairbanks (supervised by Martin Jeffries). He's the Roberta Bondar Fellow in Northern and Polar Studies at Trent University and is working with Luke Copland. He has an association with Wayne Pollard, of McGill.

The four of them have really only one strike against them - they are primarily geographers, then glaciologists and Trent University is a general Liberal Arts university, within which the department operates.

Each of the four appears to have had an outstanding career path and has been published many times in journals. A minor blip is that McGill rang a bell in the mind in another context and that raises another question - while geography is not psychiatry, still, how far is university research biased, given the issue of who funds it?

Returning to McGill, it is funded by SURF and government and other institutional funding is paramount. One such institution is the Canadian Foundation for Innovation, research of which leads to this site and a statement by Steven Harper, in another area:

... that allowing foundations to operate without scrutiny showed that the Federal Government “has learned nothing from the Sponsorship Scandal.” Harper further said “that scandal happened because the liberals stashed millions away from the watch of parliament. Even after repeated warnings, billions of dollars continue to be hidden away in these unaccountable research funding foundations. When will the government learn and put the foundations under the scrutiny of Parliament and the Auditor-General?”

No doubt the CFI itself is squeaky clean but the question does remain how far the universities, and by a logical process its research departments, are caught in the research dilemma, firstly in this way:

"Our concern is that, by primarily rewarding academic research that's divorced from its practical application, we risk having entrants to the profession taught by people who have never practised it themselves."

... and also in the pressure to produce certain findings, e.g. in the pharmaceutical trade:

Most clinical trials, however, are funded by pharmaceutical companies with enormous financial stakes in the products being evaluated. Furthermore, the scientists who design, conduct, analyze, and report clinical trials often receive monetary compensation from drug companies, in the form of either salaries or consulting fees.

... and:

The effect of competing interests is debated in medical research. It has been found that industry funding has been associated with higher quality than trials without external funding. On the other hand, financial interests may bias the interpretation of trial results.

The above looms as a convoluted strawman, in that by raising the spectre of bias at Trent in geophysics by scrutinizing McGill in medicine which, of course, is a non sequitur, it thereby plays into the climate proponents' hands. That is possible and yet, the nagging doubts about the sceptics persist:

Of all the accusations made by the vociferous community of climate sceptics, surely the most damaging is that science itself is biased against them ... "Most global warming sceptics have no productive alternatives; they say it is a hoax, or that it will cause severe social problems, or that we should allocate resources elsewhere." Andres Millan wrote. "Scientifically, they have not put forward a compelling, rich, and variegated theory."

So we are left with the people on the ground, such as Derek Mueller and colleagues, accepting climate change due to global warming.

The blogosphere, on the whole, begs to differ due to possibly sound, innate distrust of the Gore and IPCC agenda and point to the statements by such groups as the NIPCC, e.g. Professor Frederick Seitz, the past president of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, who told WND:

... he believes the issue has nothing to do with energy itself, but everything to do with power, control and money, which the United Nations is seeking. He accused the U.N. of violating human rights in its campaign to ban much energy research, exploration and development.

Diametrically opposed to that are the scientists, like Jay Lawrimore, a climatologist at the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C., who said:

... there was no way to account for the trends, be they the melting of Arctic sea ice or the warming of winters, without including an influence from heat-trapping gases.

The Federation of American Scientists states:

“There is no serious doubt that human activity is altering the earth's climate in potentially catastrophic ways. Even skeptics are forced to admit that the risk is real and that prudence demands action if only as an insurance policy, the only serious debate is about how best to respond."

... and here is a list of organizations supporting human agency in climate change.

Whom to believe?

14 comments:

  1. That's such a nice picture, I almost want to live there!

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  2. Climate Change??
    Global warming??

    Not that old potato again!

    What a load of bullsh*t!

    There is no global warming.

    Globe cooled last year ('07) by 0.07C, and sea levels went down (slightly)

    ROFLMFAO.

    Who benefits?

    Follow the money!

    Sheesh!

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  3. Excellent background research James, well done.

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  4. Eh. The blogosphere in general is NOT anti-global warming. You've got a heavy right-wing readership and that's where the skeptics lurk. There's quite a healthy activity in the blogosphere supportive of the science behind climate change.

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  5. James.
    Reports dating back 15years/+/- from sea buoys at various depths are being retrospectively altered to make the case for global warming.

    Similarly with weather balloons and satellite readings.

    Figure out who has the power, the authority -
    a)To do this
    b)To keep it (relatively) quiet.
    (except to people like me ;) )

    and you come up with the usual suspects.

    Follow the money trail of all the additional tax revenues generated by this scam, and you arrive back at the usual suspects.

    It's the same story.
    Invent a clear and present danger, and the sheeple will get behind you to fight the "enemy", with their personal blood and treasure.
    Heck, you are personally well aware of these scams, - you've blogged on them in the past.

    One of the best ways to subjugate an intelligent population is,
    a)Dumb down their education
    b)Keep 'em poor through the scam of engineered inflation, and more taxation
    c) convince them that incremental taxes are to fight the clear and present danger.
    d)Keep pounding on the message.
    e)Rinse and repeat.

    I could give you dozens of links on this subject.

    Seriously, examine in detail what is happening in Georgia at the moment, really examine.

    Usual culprits.
    Insane culprits.

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  6. OFFICIAL WARNING

    A "Kondratieff Winter" is upon us.

    Batten down the hatches, man the pumps, secure the food supplies, draw family nigh onto you.

    The eye of the storm is passing.

    Here comes the second half!, the monster has gathered its strength and is here, now!

    All its accumulated strength must be unwound.

    And a second, and possibly third, hammer is waiting in the wings, sword drawn, waiting for the moment.........

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  7. "If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie.. for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State."
    Joseph Goebbels

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  8. You've got a heavy right-wing readership and that's where the skeptics lurk

    What are you smoking.

    Since when did criticism of insane Fabian mal-administration, as seen in this country, and in the EU, become "heavy right wing"?

    Some actions are logical when viewed from either economics, or ethical standpoints, - they have the well being of the population in question as their motivation.

    The motivations of the current fabian/communist administrations in the UK, or the EU, have exactly the opposite motivation.

    I am A-Political, - I will condemn idiots from either right or left or centre parties, when condemnation is due.

    It has NOTHING to do with politics, and everything to do with science, and only a fool would assume otherwise.

    The fact is that science has been corrupted by politicians, who in turn have been corrupted by offerings of power!

    Nothing changes, it just becomes more apparent.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Who pays for Anonymous's contributions?

    I think his argument here reveals some of the problems with your usual anonymous commenter's approach to life James- he presumes that the only reason to oppose his arguments is corruption and the only reasons to support his arguments is the purity of one's interests. He seems not to have heard of genuine disagreement.

    And for the argument that the EU is communist- Anonymous have you read any Marx ever? Do you know anything about communism- your comment provides me with enough evidence to say that you know nothing about communism in either theory or practice.

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  10. And for the argument that the EU is communist- Anonymous have you read any Marx ever? Do you know anything about communism- your comment provides me with enough evidence to say that you know nothing about communism in either theory or practice.

    And for the argument that the EU is communist- STEVE, have you read any Marx ever? Do you know anything about communism- your comment provides me with enough evidence to say that you know nothing about communism in either theory or practice.

    anonymous commenter's approach to life James-

    You are absolutely clueless as to my approach to life.
    DO NOT IMPUTE MY APPROACH TO LIFE AND THEN SEEK TO CRITICIZE IT!

    the only reason to oppose his arguments is corruption and the only reasons to support his arguments is the purity of one's interests. He seems not to have heard of genuine disagreement.

    Don't be so silly!
    I made it perfectly clear that the entire global warming drive and all the associated taxes, and allocated credits (soon to be charged for incidently, which will result in capital flight,brain flight, and company flight, and taxation flight, as we are seeing currently in the UK)and credit trading exchanges currently being formed, are a total scam, from the beginning.
    Stern has a history of whoring his opinions, perhaps not as great as Gore, but a well known history.

    the only reasons to support his arguments is the purity of one's interests.

    That statement is particularly infantile!
    Purity of interests, my ass!
    It relates to scientific integrity/accuracy, - nothing to do with purity.
    The entire world is being pressured politically, into a particular line of evolution by these taxation schemes, that will ultimately prove dangerous.
    I have no disagreement with bio-diversity, something the EU is legislating against, incidentally, and no disagreement with maintaining a balanced carbon cycle, for example, but to say that CO2 emissions are creating global temperature increases is absolute non-sense, and has been proven to be so. There has never, in millions of years, been any correlation between atmospheric CO2 levels, and global temperature levels.
    A balance carbon cycle would be a good thing, not because of warming, but because it would aid in the removal of harmful particulates from the atmosphere.
    Severe weather distortions are being caused in fact, by global dimming, caused by these particles, something the clowns who created the models totally discounted. Global dimming was discovered decades ago, roughly at the same time by Israeli, and (I believe) Scandinavian scientists.

    The mere fact that scientists are facing extreme pressure, financial and peer,

    (incidentally, if you can be bothered to check, the first published report into global warming was published beforethe scientific data was finalised, and the scientists then pressured into adjusting their findings to accord with the political published report - but I guess we can't let accuracy get in the way of a good political taxation scam now, can we?)

    to go along with the spurious models thrown out by the authorities, and the fact of the alterations to previous records is being undertaken to justify those models, is enough to show even the most ardent brain-washed adherent that the entire scenario is wrong.

    He seems not to have heard of genuine disagreement.
    ROFLMAO.
    HOW CAN YOU HAVE GENUINE DISAGREEMENT WHEN THE TRANSGRESSING PARTY IS CHEATING BY ALTERING THE STATISTICS, USING INCORRECT STANDARDS WHEN CALCULATING DCF PAYBACK SCHEDULES, CORRUPTING LONG ESTABLISHED STANDARDS OF WATTS/SQUARE METRE OF ENERGY, MAKING INCORRECT ASSUMPTIONS ON CLOUD FORMATIONS AND THEIR AFFECT ON HEAT RETENTION/DISSIPATION, YADA, YADA, YADA.
    Go back to school and learn something!

    NO-ONE PAYS FOR MY WORDS.

    IF SOMEONE PAYS FOR YOUR WORDS, YOU HAVE CONNED THEM AND THEY ARE A FOOL.

    ReplyDelete
  11. I posted earlier about Kondratieff Winter, speculating someone would pick up on it..........

    Features:-

    * “Global Stock Markets Enter Extended Bear Markets”

    Given the performance of the Chinese, US, and other stock averages around the world there should be little doubt about this one.

    * “Trends During Winter: Stocks Down, Bonds Up, Commodities Down”

    I would say that this is occurring.

    * “Interest Rates Spike In Early Winter Then Decline Throughout”

    In June 2004 the Discount rate was at 2.00%. By June 2006 it was at 6.25%, and since August 2007 the Fed has been forced to cut the Discount rate back to 2.25%. So, this too, seems to fit.

    * “Economic Growth Slow or Negative During Much of Winter”

    I doubt that many will argue that growth is now slow and in many cases negative.

    * “Commercial and Residential Real Estate Prices Fall”

    This obviously began back in 2006 and is still in a major slump.

    * “Bankruptcies Accelerate and High Debt Eliminated by Bankruptcy”

    This has obviously begun and is no doubt related to the housing and credit bubbles.

    * “Social Upheaval and Society Becomes Negative”

    We are only just beginning to see this.


    * “Banking System Shaken and New One Introduced”

    The banking system is now only beginning to be shaken. There should be much more to come.

    * “Free Market System Blamed and Socialist Solutions Offered”

    This has not yet happened, but just wait.

    * “National Fascist Political Tendencies”

    More to come.


    * “Debt Level Very Low After Defaults and Bankruptcy”

    This has not happened.

    * “Trade Conflict Worsen”

    This basically has not happened.

    * “View of the Future at a Low Ebb”

    This has not happened as everyone seems to be looking for the bottom.

    * “New Work Ethics Develop Since Jobs are Scarce”

    If I can assure you of one thing, it is that this has not happened.

    * “Greed is Purged from the System”

    I can absolutely assure you that this has not happened yet.

    * “Real Estate Prices Find Bottom”

    This has not happened.

    * “There is a Clean Economic Slate to Build On”

    Not happened yet.

    * “Investors are Very Conservative and Risk Averse”

    Again, this has absolutely not occurred.

    * “Interest Rates and Prices Bottom”

    Not happened.

    * “A New Economy Begins to Emerge”

    Has not happened

    * “Stock Markets Reach Bottom and Begin New Bull Markets”

    Again, we aren’t there yet.

    Everywhere I look, I see socialist/fascist legislation/control, being enacted.
    A grim future in the EUSSR.

    The author of the above makes many comments which assume relatively free markets and freedom to invest, (implies international capital flows, etc), still survives.
    I would qualify that assumption in the face of upcoming problems, and the usual response of brain-dead politicians
    , - which would return the global economy and standards of living to standards last seen many decades ago.

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  12. From one of the anonymous posters:

    "It has NOTHING to do with politics, and everything to do with science, and only a fool would assume otherwise."

    I could not disagree with you more. Of course it has much to do with politics. If it in fact "had everything to do with science", then this silly loud babble about "disagreement" would not exist. I have not seen any scientifically sound argument that effectively rebuts the science of climate change. The so-called disagreement is 99% politically-based.

    For what it's worth, I am an atmospheric scientist in the US and I find some of the supposition that science is corrupted by politics laughable. Politics corrupts its own interpretation of the science. The idea that there is a vast conspiracy by thousands of scientists is beyond absurd. Besides the fact that there is no motivation for this conspiracy, I can guarantee you that scientists cannot be manipulated like that.

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  13. Great post.
    I love how well researched posts such as this are.
    How could anyone doubt global warming?

    ReplyDelete

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