Friday, May 15, 2009

[relativity] difficult to conceptualize


Now I know what you’re thinking: ‘Here I am this Friday, dreaming about the theory of relativity and Higham hasn’t posted anything on it for years.’ Fear no more, here it is, explained by Louis A. Bloomfield, Professor of Physics at the University of Virginia:

If you were at the back of a bus going the speed of light, and you were to run toward the front, would you be moving faster than the speed of light or turn into energy? -- TM, Ft. Bragg, NC

First, your bus can't be going at the speed of light because massive objects are strictly forbidden from traveling at that speed. Even to being traveling near the speed of light would require a fantastic expenditure of energy.

But suppose that the bus were traveling at 99.999999% of the speed of light and you were to run toward its front at 0.000002% of the speed of light (about 13 mph or just under a 5 minute mile). Now what would happen?

First, the bus speed I quoted is in reference to some outside observer because the seated passengers on the bus can't determine its speed. After all, if the shades are pulled down on the bus and it's moving at a steady velocity, no one can tell that it's moving at all. So let's assume that the bus speed I gave is according to a stationary friend who is watching the bus zoom by from outside.

While you are running toward the front of the bus at 0.000002% of the speed of light, your speed is in reference to the other passengers in the bus, who see you moving forward. The big question is what does you stationary friend see? Actually, your friend sees you running toward the front of the bus, but determines that your personal speed is only barely over 99.999999%. The two speeds haven't added the way you'd expect. Even though you and the bus passengers determine that you are moving quickly toward the front of the bus, your stationary friend determines that you are moving just the tiniest bit faster than the bus. How can that be?

The answer lies in the details of special relativity, but here is a simple, albeit bizarre picture. Your stationary friend sees a deformed bus pass by. Ignoring some peculiar optical effects due to the fact that it takes time for light to travel from the bus to your friend's eyes so that your friend can see the bus, your friend sees a foreshortened bus--a bus that is smashed almost into a pancake as it travels by. While you are in that pancake, running toward the front of the bus, the front is so close to the rear that your speed within the bus is miniscule. Why the bus becomes so short is another issue of special relativity.

The basis for Einstein's theory of relativity is the idea that everyone sees light moving at the same speed. In fact, the speed of light is so special that it doesn't really depend on light at all. Even if light didn't exist, the speed of light would still be a universal standard--the fastest possible speed for anything in our universe.

Once we recognize that the speed of light is special and that everyone sees light traveling at that speed, our views of space and time have to change. One of the classic "thought experiments" necessitating that change is the flashbulb in the boxcar experiment. Suppose that you are in a railroad boxcar with a flashbulb in its exact center. The flashbulb goes off and its light spreads outward rapidly in all directions. Since the bulb is in the center of the boxcar, its light naturally hits the front and back walls of the boxcar at the same instant and everything seems simple.

But your boxcar is actually hurtling forward on a track at an enormous speed and your friend is sitting in a station as the train rushes by. She looks into the boxcar through its window and sees the flashbulb go off. She watches light from the flashbulb spread out in all directions but it doesn't hit the front and back walls of the boxcar simultaneously. Because the boxcar is moving forward, the front wall of the boxcar is moving away from the approaching light while the back wall of the boxcar is moving toward that light. Remarkably, light from the flashbulb strikes the back wall of the boxcar first, as seen by your stationary friend.

Something is odd here: you see the light strike both walls simultaneously while your stationary friend sees light strike the back wall first. Who is right? The answer, strangely enough, is that you're both right. However, because you are moving at different velocities, the two of you perceive time and space somewhat differently. Because of these differences, you and your friend will not always agree about the distances between points in space or the intervals between moments in time. Most importantly, the two of you will not always agree about the distance or time separating two specific events and, in certain cases, may not even agree about which event happened first!

The remainder of the special theory of relativity builds on this groundwork, always treating the speed of light as a fundamental constant of nature. Einstein's famous formula, E=mc2, is an unavoidable consequence of this line of reasoning.

Clear?

Thursday, May 14, 2009

[thought for the day] thursday evening

Truth, Sir, is a cow which will yield such people [sceptics] no more milk and so they are gone to milk the bull.

Samuel Johnson [1763]

Don’t know much about this chap. Is he famous or something? Did he have any education worth speaking of? Did any wisdom ever spring from his lips? Enlighten me.

[wordless thursday] captions please

[taking the piss] there must be a reason

We're all agreed about one thing, anyway - the pollies are taking the piss, they're doing it now with impunity and the people don't like it.

The hypocrisy is astounding.

Cameron saying he was 'appalled'. Pardon?

Now look - people don't dare take the piss unless they know they're going to get away with it and this lot really do believe that they're not going to have to face the electorate because of the new regional governance. How else would you explain the gall?

[country quiz 2] for you geographical whizzes

1. This country is mainly black and it was a member of the British Commonwealth, then it was expelled, then reinstated. It has a large population in London. There are two main regions – north and south and one of the languages is known as Ibo. They have an excellent national football team.

2. This country also has more than one capital – one administrative and one legislative. Its major city has many canals, its national colour is orange and it is sometimes called the ‘sewer of Europe’.

3. This country’s national colour is also orange except that half the people don’t agree with this statement. It was very nearly wiped out years ago in a terrible accident.

4. This country is part of different world regions and yet the language is the same across the nation. It has a famous deep lake and its people are warm and friendly, although they don’t smile publicly. It’s tree is the silver birch.

5. This country has high mountains everywhere and is landlocked but not rich. It isn’t even a nation because its neighbour claims sovereignty over it and even claims it doesn’t exist. There is an important religious man connected with it.

Answers

Nigeria, The Netherlands, The Ukraine, Russian Federation, Tibet

[in safe hands] how big business operates

This Sydney Morning Herald article on Rio Tinto's iron ore battle with China - the final round of brinkmanship from last year, illustrates how close we often come to the brink and the escalation of hostilities. Even if steel is not your thing, this still makes a rivetting read:

It took place at a Baosteel office in Shanghai. Baosteel, China's industrial champion, and Rio Tinto, the world's second biggest miner, had already weathered roughly a round a fortnight since February without any sign of progress. The talks began after lunch with Baosteel's chief negotiator Ding Shouhu flinging threats and statistics at Rio Tinto's Will Malaney, as usual, and Malaney returning in kind.

Baosteel was insisting on a price rise close to the 71 per cent agreed with Brazil's Vale four months earlier. Rio Tinto was after nearly double that, to bring prices in line with China's sizzling spot market.

It was a strategy of mutually-assured destruction. If they failed to find common ground that day, [it would plunge] the Australian mining industry and Chinese steel makers into an unpredictable world of spot market sales and retaliation from Chinese industry and government. For weeks Baosteel had been privately promising a blanket Chinese embargo of most or all Australian iron ore cargoes if negotiations broke down and Rio knew there was a real chance that Baosteel and its controlling shareholder, the Chinese Government, would follow through on the threat. Nobody knew where that might lead.

"I've experienced times when politics have been unleashed in China," says a Chinese negotiator, "and it has been very hard to control."

The Rio and Baosteel negotiators edged towards each other in a haggling process not unlike what you might see in a Chinese clothing market. Baosteel gave a little, Rio gave a little. They agreed that China and Rio Tinto would be better off if the price of "lump" iron ore rose faster than "fines", as lump accounted for a relatively small proportion of China's imports compared with Japan but a relatively high proportion of Rio's exports compared with BHP.

And then after 12 months of talks, four months of serious negotiations and a tense afternoon in that room at Baosteel, the opponents jumped up and clasped each other's hands. They had agreed on a record-breaking 79 per cent price rise for iron ore fines and a 96.5 per cent rise for lump - working out to a weighted average rise of 85 per cent for Rio Tinto and a little less for BHP.

Australia had helped itself to an extra $2.5 billion in annual export earnings [but] from China's point of view, its economy suffered yet another terms of trade shock, its inflation problem got worse and its steel industry leaders lost face. But the mills would continue to expand and an all-out trade war had been averted.
For now.
In recent years Australia's big mining companies [had] underestimated China. The head offices of both BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto initially closed their ears five years ago when their analysts in Shanghai and Beijing began screaming down the phone to say the steel industry was taking off and they didn't have nearly enough supply to meet demand. Decision makers said mine expansions were too difficult, skilled workers were too scarce, the China boom wouldn't last.

In 2006 Rio Tinto surrendered the Chinese market leadership position it had occupied since 1973. Vale powered ahead, despite Brazil's ports being three times as far away as Cape Lambert in the Pilbara. The tardy Australian mining response became a macro-economic problem as Australia's overall export volumes hardly moved in six years.

BHP chief executive Marius Kloppers … understands that steel has an almost "spiritual" dimension in China and that Chinese political leaders have something of a steel obsession. And yet … BHP did nothing to prepare China for its takeover announcement [of Rio Tinto]. There had been no warning, no reassuring courtesy call, and no joint investment offer as a gesture of goodwill. Instead, BHP put the bulk of its early public relations efforts into London.

"BHP and Rio are so powerful already," [said] Hu Kai, a leading iron ore analyst at Umetal.com. "Together, they would control the world's iron ore exports and set the price absolutely. There is no question about this. Baosteel is very scared."

Rio Tinto [was] also scared. BHP is a smaller player in the iron ore market but in recent years it has been far more aggressive. Privately, BHP blame[d] Rio's "gutlessness" for its failed attempt to secure a freight premium for Australian exports to north-east Asia three years ago. Rio … kicked off the year by picking a major fight with Chinese mills by dumping millions of tonnes of long-term contract iron ore onto the Chinese spot market, in breach of the spirit if not the letter of the "contingency" provisions of its agreements.

CISA's big-talking president, Luo Bingsheng … recently gave an extraordinary account of his own strategic importance on national TV. He told China Central Television that he had summoned the "iron ore manager of Rio Tinto" - perhaps Rio's veteran behind-the-scenes negotiator Ian Bauert - and delivered a message that was polite but barbed like "needles in cotton".

Luo conceded that Rio Tinto's new-found fortitude had taken him by surprise. "We failed to consider Rio Tinto's strong attitude in negotiations," he said. And then Luo unveiled China's doomsday weapon. He had personally drafted an edict that he intended to immediately publish if that last round of negotiations broke down.

"It said the breakdown of the negotiations totally violated the traditional pricing mechanism and China's steel enterprises will resolutely boycott the switch from long-term contract ore to spot market ore," said Luo. CISA was willing to choke Chinese steel makers in the hope it would cause relatively more damage to Rio Tinto. "If [Rio] loses the China market, it would be hard for the company to survive. If the negotiation fails, then BHP would be the biggest winner," said Luo.

Mutually-assured destruction

LUO's comments to the Chinese broadcaster CCTV mirror those of another senior iron ore and mining official, Zou Jian. In April Zou told the Herald that China was prepared to slash its steel production to by as much as 10 per cent - 50 million tonnes - if that was the price to be paid for blockading Rio and BHP ships after a collapse in negotiations.

Any state-orchestrated blockade would be in breach of the World Trade Organisation rules. But that is a technicality that has bothered CISA little in the past. CISA, a government offshoot, might claim that it was not a government organisation. In any case, a WTO dispute would take years to resolve.

From Rio's point of view, the strategic question was not whether CISA and Baosteel were bluffing but whether and for how long they could hold China's 700 steel makers in line.
RIO planned to sell … about two-fifths of China's total iron ore imports and about one-fifth of its total consumption. Over the year CISA had contrived to double China's port stockpiles to about 80 million tones. Some of the stocks were run down in the final month of negotiations in an attempt to depress the spot price and place more pressure on Rio negotiators. But they still added up to around two months of emergency supplies. CISA had also been tightening an import licensing system to increase its leverage. CISA could arrange to take away the license of any steel mill or trader that broke ranks. New cargoes from Australia's "third force" iron ore company, FMG, would also come in handy.

CISA's power base … would be haemorrhaging. They would be losing market share to China's smaller private mills and to the giant mills of Japan and Korea. And then it would be Japan and Korea's turn to face the newly emboldened Rio. [However], Chinese mills would eventually revolt and CISA would buckle. Privately, a senior CISA official told the Herald that Luo Bingsheng's war plan would not have worked.

In the end, Rio Tinto didn't get what it wanted but it broadly held its ground. For all the insults and bluster emanating from the China Iron and Steel Association this year, there was little it could do. While CISA taunted Rio with the prospect of being swallowed by BHP, close observers says Rio Tinto used the same argument against Baosteel to better effect.

"They presented this case: if China didn't agree to a much higher price then BHP would take over Rio and that would be terrible for China," says Hu Kai, at Umetal.com. "And they believed this. Baosteel believed that giving Rio a high price might help to stop the merger." Baosteel was doubly upset to learn that Rio and BHP had accepted deals with European mills at the lower Vale price. There are now two contract benchmarks: a global price and another higher price reserved for Australian iron ore in north-east Asia.

"The traditional benchmark system is breaking down," says Xu Xiangchun, an analyst at Mysteel. "There will be more change next year and the system will edge closer to Australia's demand for an index pricing system. The result will be several prices." But if BHP wins its takeover bid for Rio Tinto then all bets are off.

"If BHP gets Rio then next year there will be no price negotiations," says an Australian mining executive, half joking. "Baosteel will simply go to Melbourne and collect the price."

Update

Did the merger go through?

[logic] see what you think

Make your own mind up.

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

[thought for the day] wednesday evening

A little philosophy inclineth man’s mind to atheism but depth in philosophy bringeth men’s minds around to religion.

Francis Bacon [Essays, 1625]

Anyone heard of this chap? Did he know anything of the world or was he of the uneducated classes? Perhaps you could Enlighten me.

[wordless wednesday] captions please

Base Instincts - a story in three parts

Click on pic to zoom.


The text is up and each chapter can be accessed from the sidebar. The tricky bits, like links from text to pics and from chapter to chapter, still have to go in this week.

For those willing to take the plunge, hope you enjoy it.

And yes, that is her.

[english] transforming your grasp

The examples below are known, in the trade, as Key Word Transformations. Peruse the first line in each case, note the key word in bold on the second line and complete the third line, using no fewer than two and no more than five words.

Oh, one more rule – the key word may not be altered in any way. It must appear in the answer ‘as is’. ☺

1. It's unusual for Liya to be up at this time.
hardly
Liya …………………………at this time.


2. It's rare for the Minister to be in town.
stay
The Minister ………………………… town.


3. Is leaving everything here really necessary?
left
Does everything…………………………here?


4. There's no need for you to finish the vegetables if you don't feel like it.
have
If you don't feel like it …………………………finish the vegetables.


5. There’s almost no doubt he’s not going to win.
great deal
There’s a …………………………he’s going to win.


Possible answers

is hardly ever, does not usually stay, really have to be left, great deal of doubt [that]

[the word] love it or loathe it, it will always be


Martin Kelly makes the following observation about the internet:

Without doubt, as a tool for the dissemination of ideas the Internet sits next only to the printing press in its potential; yet just as Chesterton, I think it was, wrote that the downside of the printing press was the explosion of the volume of dud philosophy that appeared in its wake, so too does the Internet have a downside.

It is to be found in the outcome of Operation Algebra.

It is, of course, people who do bad things, and not the tools they use to inflict harm; no home would ever get built without carpenters using hammers, yet in the wrong hands there are few more lethal weapons. Just as the Internet is potentially one of the greatest tools ever created by Man for the spreading of The Word, people of faith have to acknowledge that great evil operates in it as well. We cannot shy away from this, as much as we would sincerely like to.

The main thrust of Martin’s post is about Catholicism and schism. As a non-Catholic, as a died in the wool Protestant who can’t accept the intermediary role of the Bishop of Rome, I’m going to make this observation about the Catholic faith:

It’s a living faith.

When I was in Sicily, walking down the rocky terrain, daily, from my hilltop retreat to the main town, I’d see how the churches were open door, living community centres and people really did pay attention to the papal decrees, from lip service through to devotion, to the crosses on the walls of supermarkets. This community presence of the church is something the protestants had at one time before they began ignoring the Word and corruption set in – look at the anglican church in America, for example. Look at the moribund Church of England here.

This enables a modern-day Catholic, Martin, to say:

The real world is that of The Word. For the past 200 years, many of us have been trying to live without The Word. For the most part, our efforts have resulted in catastrophic failure, their fruits ideology, genocide, and the slavery of living from paycheck to paycheck. One day, we'll look back on this period in history and laugh.

The real world is that of The Word.

Hardly anyone in these faithless, sheeple days can see that. There is a simple devotion in that sentence, similar to the Americans’ devotion to the yoo ess of ay, towards their constitution and in these relativistic, PC times, that’s a breath of fresh air. To actually see someone abiding by a set of precepts is amazing in this day and age.

Look, you couldn’t mount any more stinging attack on the papacy and catholicism than I could - where would you like to start start - with the P2 Lodge and Calvi? With Cesare Borgia? Vatican II? The Jesuits? Then let me get going on the bloody Jewish Kabbalah and its Madonna accolytes.

Those things will always be present when dualistic satanism apes something monolithically but genuinely pro-good, such as the catholic church - pro-good in outlook, if not always in practice. Say what you like but without the U.S.A., freedom, libertarianism and democracy would, by now, be down the gurgler. Say what you like but without the catholic church, the Word would be a candle all but snuffed out.

It must be a source of constant irritation to the black nobility that the very country which is their citadel is also the engine room for the Christian message. I quite like that idea.

A beautiful allegory was the end of Matrix III, which many considered inferior to the mumbo-jumbo, new-ageist, first episode. Agent Smith and his clones, just as most people are also unwitting, mechanical agents of godless secularism and its inability to provide, leading inevitably to a sense of hopelessness and betrayal in its devotees who completely believed in the evolution and ultimate efficacy of machines as gods in their own right, along with god-free morality, only to be stymied at the last moment by the pesky and deeply annoying Real Power, Real Light, with its penchant for manifesting itself through weak and mortal man - just as Agent Smith and all the other misguided ones finally got theirs, so it is in the real world.

It’s David and Goliath, it’s Marvin the Paranoid Android and the huge battleship he opposed on the bridge between the two towers. It’s the real power, the metaphysical ‘soul’ if you like, present only as a hope in the heart, as a flickering candle in the Moriah wind. It’s the humble human spirit deep inside us. It will always win at the close of play, always … though it be seemingly down and out.

Good will triumph over evil for the simple reason that evil, though it make a huge racket in a tin can, wear fabulous costumes, sprout baseless, spiritually bereft, high sounding Nietzscheanism, issue countless missals, reports, think-tank recommendations and hold endless conferences and seminars for little result, appearing omnipotent, ubiquitous and invincible … is actually fundamentally flawed.

Look at the Soviet Union, look at the new UKSSR. For goodness sake – I go to the former Soviet Union twelve years, come back and find myself in the Soviet Union again. Look at non-President Obama’s brave new world he’s creating as the High Priest of the dark one – did you catch his first open attack on Christianity the other day?

Good and G-d are two very closely related words and admittedly, good isn’t exactly an exciting, rivetting concept - it just is.

I love the simple, primitive, superstitious faith of the pesky little people like myself because it annoys and sticks it up the temporal powers that be and exposes the twin gods of Science and Humanism [was there ever such a misnamed ‘ism’, having zero to do with the ultimate benefit of Mankind as a species] for the limited tools they are; it annoys the legions of rationalist disciples.

With their multi-trillion dollar technology, they still can’t snuff out an idea or get the world in order.

As Evie Nefertiti said, when the monster got his, courtesy of the spirit, at the end of The Mummy: ‘He’s mortal.’ Mortal means he can, theoretically at least, be defeated. We just need to find the way.

And as Jonesy said in Dad’s Army, concerning the mighty armies poised just across the English La Manche: ‘They don’t like it up ’em, they don’t, they don’t.’

As the hordes of socialists in the law, in the university professorships, at the top of the NHS, in the High Church, in Common Purpose, in key positions in education, await the inevitable coming together of the Grand Plan – lo, even in its implementation will be sewn the seeds of its defeat because it is fundamentally flawed and unsustainable.

Don’t get me wrong, one needs to also believe in the ability of technology to provide new solutions – just look at these ideas – there’s no point being a Luddite but to ignore the other, irrepressible, metaphysical side in implementing these excellent ideas is Tower of Babel all over again.

Why not combine the two and then you’re really cooking with gas?


Tuesday, May 12, 2009

[wordless tuesday] no words

[propaganda] predators, women and the ahl


Finding myself in a town not far away, I’ve decided to post this today rather than wait until tomorrow because I’d prefer to concentrate on the book, visiting and any fallout tomorrow.

Let’s face it, from the nastiness of Saturday and yesterday [stalker posts and comments passim], it appears the anti-higham lobby [AHL], of whom Azrael is their chairman or high priest, is getting active again. Why now?

There’s a threefold goal, according to his message yesterday – to see me ejected from Bloghounds, to see me run out of the blogosphere in shame [or at least shunned by one and all] and to nail the woman I’ve been supporting [which I suspect might be the real purpose]. This woman we’re speaking of has shown me nothing but support and kindness and I have feelings for her.

Reactions

This is the tenor of the reactions in my inbox so far:

‘I really don’t know why you’re giving this man a platform to make his wild accusations. You’d have been better off ignoring him.’

‘I don’t accept a word he says, I’m afraid, the man’s obviously unbalanced, I think I can make my own mind up ...’

‘James, what are you doing? XXXX by XXXX was thrown out of XXXX, he has no support except those who are so closely aligned to him that they have no choice but support him. Let it go, buddy.’

My friend also opined yesterday that they [the AHL] haven’t a hope in hell of touching her, she’s too hot for them and not even the police will support her stalker, so he chooses the soft target instead who doesn’t know how to go for the jugular.

I listened to these folks and see their point but the man did make specific accusations and these needed to be scotched once and for all. You see, there’s a new generation of readers now who didn’t see his destructive little game last year and it’s better they know whom they’re dealing with.

The people who sent those comments above are people of decency whom I don’t think fully understand the barrel scraping and gutter posting certain people are prepared to stoop to and so it did seem right to open up to the readers.

But this will certainly be the last post on the matter.

Spraying

The problem for the AHL is that they’re shooting wide of the mark thus far … so it’s time I helped them out a bit.

Firstly, my trilogy [tomorrow] has enough hot stuff in there to scorch me from here to kingdom come, as I wrote yesterday. Secondly, I’m going to show them two areas [below] where they’re wasting their time. Thirdly, I’ll give them a hot tip as to where they should actually be looking.

In return, I reserve the right to really go to town on each of them, one by one, showing just what ‘butter wouldn’t melt’ people we’re dealing with here.

University

You’re not going to get anywhere with the university line, AHL, there are documents before the Bloghounds committee now and those august three know the lie of the land. One further ‘document’ is the above photo and my case rests on those girls’ eyes. No group of females of 22/23 is going to give that look to someone whom all the girls knew to be a serial-sleaze. Female universities are hotbeds of gossip, after all. And by the way, the camera belongs to the red-headed girl. I don’t own one.

The women, in their 50s, who run such universities in Russia are ex-Soviet Union and to hold such a position for twenty years in a place like that with over 1200 girls and about 120 boys, a Dean and her offsiders are definitely not naïve do-gooders [although they’re good people inside]. They’re very astute, canny operators, used to navigating through a minefield of government regulations, fiercely protecting the reputation of the university and doing anything for their students, their charges. Women in positions of responsibility in both Britain and the U.S.A. would know precisely the nature of these ladies and they don’t suffer either fools or charlatans gladly.

The bloggers who’ve met me

This is possibly a more fruitful line. I’ve met, face to face, four fellow bloggers since leaving Russia. Apart from one initial blogpost by JHL, none of those four would post anything on me and I’m sure as hell not going to post anything on them, except positively. JHL still posts on my blog, the other three are more than welcome to and all are visitors to this site, as I am to them. We’ve had our differences of opinion but I only have 22 words for these people: ‘Thank you for your many kindnesses, which I most certainly shall make up to you, as and when it becomes possible again.’

My ex-girlfriend

To the AHL, she’s the one you should be pursuing and in her are rich pickings for you.

There are plans afoot for her to come over in late August and visit me, so I envisage a bloggers get-together in a pub in a central location like, say, Droitwich Spa or Worcester, I’ll see if she’d be willing to come along and meet you and you can ask whatever you like [she speaks near-perfect English, with a slight accent].

To give a small pen-sketch as to the essential problem with her – she’s provocative and divisive.

When she walks into a room, two things happen. The women detest her and the men start thinking thoughts they’d prefer their wives not to know. You understand, there are women of the sisterhood who enjoy each other’s company and then there are men-oriented women.

She’s the latter.

Furthermore, she’s bad for the man she’s with because everyone then looks at him [she prefers the more mature kind] and wonders. Once, she and her mother went into a café called Giuseppe, on the tree-lined street called Kryemlovskaya [Kremlin Street], looking for me but I’d already left and when I returned, I asked the girls behind the counter, ‘Did a beautiful blondinka come in here not long ago with her mother? They’re both very thin.’

One of the girls shook her head but another said, ‘Two sisters were in here asking for you.’

I asked, ‘Was one of them wearing glasses?’

‘Da.’

‘That was them,’ I answered. ‘Spasibo, dye’vushki.’

She’s cantankerous, capricious, always taking the opposite direction to wherever you want her to go, her ego’s the size of a planet but she’s also very, very shy in some ways and adores small animals and birds with broken wings whom she’ll take home and nurse back to health. At last count, I think there were six cats in that house.

If anyone hurts her, I’ll kill him. That’s the sort of loyalty she inspires in men and I’m still besotted by her, even now, as are a few others, I have to admit. She wrote to me not long ago, aching to see me again and vice-versa. One of the pics in the trilogy is actually a sketch of her.

So that’s where your best bet lies if you want to nail me because I plead absolutely guilty in advance and I’d love to see you try to handle her. 

Oh, one more thing. Once, she came to my university to meet up after work and I’ll never forget that scene in the foyer. I’d asked her to wait outside [it was early autumn] but she wasn’t having any of that – she never did as I asked. Now you’d understand that, with 900 girls of all shapes and sizes in that building, the local boys were always pressing to get in to meet them.

She walked in and how she got past the man on the door without a pass I still don’t know, she wasn’t even made up, that’s how confident she was and everyone turned and looked at her for about five seconds or watched form the corner of the eyes. I swear that was true.

Propaganda

So, off the pleasant topics and back to the nastiness. Joseph Goebbels learnt his propaganda techniques very well and invented one or two himself. The AHL have also learnt one or two tricks from Azrael and everyone concedes he’s a professional - one of the best in Britain, so he has a lot of people automatically accepting what he or they say.

I’d like to describe two of these techniques below, with your permission. Azrael himself describes it thus:

D---- calls me polished. Polished, because he knows me. Because he knows underneath that layer, I CAN be pretty cold booded and ruthless. Hey, I'm a salesman. Of COURSE I'm good. Think about it. Would a company pay me what they pay me if I wasn't????

Look, I'm good. Don't deny it. Damn good salesman. And I can't teach what I do. I can't. Of COURSE I have a strategy- the attack and lull strategy- but no matter how hard I try, no trainee can pick it up, you can either do what I do- you was born to do it- or you can't.

What wins is walking in thinking 'I'm going to close you down, mate. I'm going to cut off your options and you WILL do what I want.' I'm fairly blatant in my work. It;s WHY I'm the best. 'EVERYONE can be cozened or cowed, just pick your tool, but don't fuck up, because it really is, either or.'

Higham is the first to nod and concede – the man is good at what he does and he cuts a swathe through middle-aged women and young girls alike who have no defences, not to mention the men – not all men won’t have a bar of him.

That’s the sort of person we’re dealing with here.

The email technique

1. Decide whom you wish to close down, maybe someone who slighted you or someone who campaigned against you.

2. Check who’s your target’s most regular visitors and whom he counts on for support.

3. Start cozying up [to use his own word] to their blog, always be the first to come in with an intelligent, educated comment [women love that] and continue this for some time.

4. Somehow, email contact is made and it’s all very cozy and innocent for a while until he casually suggests they exchange phone numbers. he works best by voice and can better gauge the reaction at the other end of the line.

5. Now in a state of mutual ‘friendship’, he might ask, ‘What do you think of James?’ or some such. The blogger replies that James is OK, except maybe for this or that quirk. Our salesman jots that down and agrees that James is OK.

6. He writes to another blogger close to his target and says that Jane [let’s make up a name] is a bit worried about James doing this. he actually misrepresents what Jane said but not so far away that Jane would deny it. Jill [let’s make up another name], seeing the attestation of Jane as a mandate to herself open up, admits the thought had crossed her mind too about James.

7. When the dossier’s big enough [that’s what Azrael means by ‘accumulating evidence’], he now approaches all of them, saying things like, ‘You know, we really should do something about James.’

And so on. It’s a tried and trusted technique but you’d need to be a cold blooded, ruthless sociopath to use it.

Black is white technique

1. Take all the buzz words which have been used against you – sleaze, scumbag, sociopath, egotist, trouble-maker etc. – and write them all down. Also note the thrust of the allegations against you and internalize them in your mind.

2. Allow your natural tendency for denial full flourish and work yourself into a state where you truly believe you are the opposite of those things. It’s like method acting [De Niro and so on]. You can’t pull this off unless you can completely convince yourself that you are as pure as pure.

3. Now compose posts, emails and so on, projecting all of those things onto your object of hatred and dredging up any evidence you can from your dossiers in support of that [selected full emails, things the target might have written in posts etc.] and weave them into your narrative so that they appear to dovetail. It helps here if you’re not a bad writer. Azrael claims he is a far better writer than Higham, so that obviously qualifies him.

4. Act the innocent, for example, about phoning someone, claiming that she phoned you, not the other way round. It actually happened this way – he phoned, she phoned, he phoned, she phoned. Choose only the 2nd to 4th of those [with email support] and the impression given is entirely different to what the phone records say but hey, who checks phone records anyway? The punters you have in your pocket sure as hell don’t – they’ve already bought your story.

5. Now use the ‘little compliment’ technique on the women to sell them your version and with the men, you need to use the ‘hey, I’m a Brit like you, we’re men of the world’ approach, tailoring your manner to what you know will both please and convince the people you need to support you.

6. Knowing the target won’t let your comment stay in the comments section, email people copies and say, ‘This is what James didn’t want you to know.’ Climate of natural suspicion.

7. Send in your closest supporters to act as if they’re independent readers who have decided, on balance, to support Azrael and that ‘if readers knew what I know about James, you wouldn’t be supporting him’. They make vague references to the past.

8. Sit back and wait for the mutterings and murmurings to begin on blogposts all over the sphere, then act the injured innocent when you’re approached about ‘the truth of the matter’. Here you have to rely on the ‘damning with faint praise’ and ‘where there’s smoke, there’s fire’ technique and soon you have your result.

This is the heavy artillery.

These techniques are proven, they’ve been shown to work on the majority of punters who do not have their defences up. And who does have his/her defences up anyway? Azrael knows that most of you don’t really give a damn what Higham or anyone else does - your family, your work and you are the only focuses in your life, with perhaps a little blogging on the side.

So when he gets past your guard with his viper techniques, you never think you’ve been duped.

Some people though are in a line of business where they need to be awake to people like Azrael, e.g. insurance assessors, police. These people compare the demeanour of the target and compare it to the ‘too perfect’ technique of the predator and don’t buy his line.

They ask questions like, ‘Why would this Azrael suddenly pop up now? Why not earlier? Why would Higham react so savagely and at such length? What’s the most likely scenario here?’

The problem for the Azraels, Common Purposes and EUs of the world is that there really are astute people out there who can see through them. Azrael would answer that people can see through Higham, not the other way around but it was not Higham who dredged all this up again, was it? It was Azrael last week and on Saturday who reintroduced the trouble.

Higham himself was just trying to get on with his blogging at the time and will do so again as of tomorrow.

Whoa, you say – who’s going to invest that sort of time and effort for a largely unproductive result? The answer is - a psychopath who’s recently found himself a new job, now has the resources to do so, has infinite patience and a new goal in life.

[opera] elite test 2

To be a true member of Them, you’ll need to display an appreciation of opera. Supply the name of the composers from the initial letters:

1. Cosi fan tutte…..1790…..M
2. The Barber of Seville…..1816…..R
3. Aida…..1871…..V
4. Boris Godunov…..1874…..M
5. Carmen…..1875…..B

Answers

Mozart, Rossini, Verdi, Mussorgsky, Bizet

Monday, May 11, 2009

[science and technology] second quiz

1. What does Cytology study?

2. Absolute zero, in Fahrenheit, is how many degrees below?

3. What is an eolic power station?

4. What is an Ishihara test used for?

5. What is panphobia?

Answers

The structure, function and life of cells, -459.7ºF, wind powered, to test for colour blindness, fear of everything

Sunday, May 10, 2009

[country quiz] five to test your geography

1. It is long and thin and near the coast. It actually elected a communist leader years ago and is next door to a country whose colours are light blue and white. It might sound cold but in fact it crosses many climactic regions from warm to cool.

2. This country is constantly living in danger – a geological fault line runs north south across its middle. It has spectacular mountains and hot springs and its capital is known for its white architecture and the multi-coloured roofs of its houses. It spends half the year under wet snow.

3. This country has many engineers, especially automotive, and likes causing wars which it doesn’t win. For centuries it was not even a country – it was a series of dukedoms, under one loose banner. In the south is a beautiful forest and it has many beautiful castles.

4. This country is long and sprawls across many islands, as well as half of another big island it disputes with its large southern neighbour. Bombings there have tarnished its image of exotic South East Asia. The wife of its former corrupt President was known for her thousands of pairs of shoes.

5. This country is hot and has an aging leader whom most of the world thinks is a madman who sponsors terrorists. It was the scene of huge battles in the Second World War, mainly between the British, Australians and Germans. From its desert you could sail across the large sea to Europe.

Answers

Chile, Iceland, Germany, The Philippines, Libya

[dark matter] and the limits of science


Electromagnetic radiation is often optical - the visible light you see with your eyes. But this is just one type of light energy. Electromagnetic radiation comes in many wavelengths: radio waves (the longest), infrared, optical, ultraviolet, X-rays and short gamma rays (the shortest, and also the highest form of energy. Galaxies, nebulae, stars, trees, microscopic bugs and anything else that can be observed glows with energy at one of these wavelengths.

In recent decades, researchers have become increasingly convinced that there is a vast amount of material in the universe that does not glow at all. This mysterious "dark matter" is believed by most scientists to be the most common stuff in the universe, perhaps making up 90 percent or more of the total mass. Researchers say the Coma Cluster of galaxies shows effects of gravity that can only be explained by the presence of some unseen dark matter.

Dark matter does not emit enough energy to be directly detected. But indirectly, researchers note its presence. Anything that has a mass exerts the force that we call gravity. Dark matter - or something that we have yet to find - exerts a gravitational pull on objects in and around distant galaxies, and even on light emitted by those objects, say scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center.

By measuring these mysterious effects of gravity, researchers determine how much "extra" gravity is present, and hence how much extra mass, or dark matter, must exist. In large clusters of galaxies, for example, scientists say that five to 10 times more material exists than can be accounted for by the stars and gas they find.

What is dark matter made of?

Normal matter - you, your computer and the air you breathe - is made of atoms, composed of protons, neutrons and electrons - "baryonic" matter. They suspect some dark matter is of the normal, baryonic variety. This might include brown dwarf stars and other objects that are simply too small, or too dim, to be seen from great distances.

But most dark matter is thought to be non-baryonic.

Glossary of wavelengths of light

Radio: Wavelengths longer than infrared and very low energy.
Infrared: Wavelengths longer than the red end of visible light and shorter than microwaves (roughly between 1 and 100 microns). Little infrared radiation reaches Earth's surface, but some can be observed by high-altitude aircraft or telescopes on tall mountains.
Optical/Visible: Electromagnetic radiation at wavelengths visible to the human eye. We perceive this radiation as colors ranging from red (longer wavelengths about 700 nanometers) to violet (shorter wavelengths about 400 nanometers).
Ultraviolet: Wavelengths shorter than the violet end of visible light. Earth's atmosphere blocks most ultraviolet light.
X-rays: Very short wavelengths and very high-energy; X-rays have shorter wavelengths than ultraviolet light but longer wavelengths than gamma rays.
Gamma rays: The highest energy, shortest wavelength electromagnetic radiation. Usually, they are thought of as any photons having energies greater than about 100 keV (kiloelectron volts).

[Robert Roy Britt, Understanding Dark Matter and Light Energy, 05 January 2001]

Science is the observation and explanation of the observable and recordable. The hegemony of science in most people’s minds is a desire to replace the eternal verities of the Judaeo-Christian tradition with that of another eternal verity – Science.

The ‘dial-in’ mentality, so beloved of the middle-aged male, especially one involved in the technology field, has inherent flaws if it does not take into account the dark matter, the metaphysical, the non-observable and unrecordable.

Someone said to me recently that if you don’t argue from within the laws of physics, you can argue anything you like without having to support it.

Well yes, that is so. If 90% or so of the matter in the universe is dark, then why can’t 90% or so of what actually exists out there, including G-d and Heaven, also be so? Why can’t it?

Our technophile rails against that because he finds terminology like ‘G-d’, ‘the heavenly host’ and ‘the holy spirit’ so unscientific that it has to, ipso facto, be:

WRONG.

By what logical process is something wrong if it is couched in distasteful terminology? If DK, for example, couches his arguments in an ocean of swearing, does that make them any less valid?

So, all power to the ‘giant lizards’ and ‘shape-shifters’, I say. The notion that the deity Science is omnipotent is now being so seriously eroded [see climate change and evolution] that even its most ardent supporters are being forced onto the back foot.

In an age where science and technology are attempting to stamp out the last vestiges of ‘superstition’, which they like to lump under one all-inclusive header ‘religion’, a pejorative term for verities and idiocies all thrown together on one funeral pyre, unfortunately for the technophiles, questions unexplainable by Science are appearing more and more.

This is the basis for Armageddon, as it was for Hesse’s war between men and machines in Steppenwolf. The technophile disciple of the indifferent god Science, the one who feels he is the most rational of all creatures, blindly denies the existence and influence of the metaphysical in the universe.

If he was a true scientist, he’d try to take it into account in his modelling of the cosmos, instead of spitting out the word ‘religion’ as some sort of logical end to all speculation over that which we cannot understand. Where does the Logos fit into his model, for example?

Man is not G-d – he’s just a very clever bunny, that’s all, with distinct physical and mental limitations, who’s learning all the time. Technological advances are wonderful, especially in the solution of problems in medicine, transport, provision of resources and so on. No argument there. But to provide a solution without taking into account disagreeable phenomena – that is a recipe for the ultimate failure of that solution.

Saturday, May 09, 2009

[housekeeping] comment moderation until monday

On the weekend, I do not have access to the internet and thus any posts are on 'scheduled'. Knowing this, an unprincipled person has apparently popped up again. He left a comment on this blog some days ago but fortunately the failsafe caught him out and it was deleted.

He knew that my failsafe was not going to work this weekend and so left a comment, not so long ago, accusing me of all sorts of things, basing them on hearsay and innuendo. Naturally, these statements are actionable, which he seems to be hoping I'll initiate but I have no intention of having anything whatsoever to do with him.

Unfortunately for this person, a friend of mine saw the comment, contacted me and has had to alter his own weekend plans to allow me to come up here and deal with the problem. I now have another failsafe in place which will only operate from Monday during business hours but until then, I'm sorry, dear readers but I've had to switch on moderation.

There are many bloggers of some years standing who know exactly who this person is and yes - he doesn't seem to be able to leave matters alone, does he? Perhaps his former friends could ask him to desist.

For now, for the readers who nothing about any of this, sorry for this temporary inconvenience.

[wolfram alfa] sounds good for bloggers

Wolfram Alpha‘.

As a technophile [:)], I'm going for it.

UPDATES

Here

Here

[english] laying the groundrules

How well do you know your own language? Give the correct variant in each case:


1. He laid/lay down on the bed to take a nap.

2. Having laid/lain in bed all day, she got up to eat.

3. Lie/lay the baby down on the bed and have a rest!

4. She laid/lay the baby on the bed while she took a nap.

5. The chickens laid/layed the eggs and then took a nap.


Oblique, simplistic answers

Lay – laid – laid - laying is ‘to place something down’.
Lie – lay – lain - lying is ‘to place yourself down’.
Lie – lied – lied – lying is ‘to tell an untruth’.
Layed is a misspelling and does not exist. Use laid instead.

[education destroyed 2] the issue of research


This [shorter] article is the continuation on the educational post here and abridges the work of:

Stone, J. E. & Clements, A. (1998), Research and innovation: Let the buyer beware, in Robert R. Spillane & Paul Regnier (Eds.), The superintendent of the future (pp.59-97), Gaithersburg, MD: Aspen Publishers, via J. E. Stone and Andrea Clements, East Tennessee State University

Quantitative versus Qualitative Research

Quantitative research includes both descriptive and explanatory studies. Descriptive studies are concerned only with establishing the existence of a phenomenon of interest--student achievement, for example. How much of it exists, where it exists, and what kinds of it exist are typical descriptive hypotheses. Explanatory studies are concerned with the causes of a phenomenon of interest.

For example, does the use of Direct Instruction improve achievement? Technically stated, explanatory studies are concerned with the discovery of functional relationships (i.e., relationships in which the state of a given phenomenon is said to be a function of a preceding event or condition).

Less technically, explanatory studies are concerned with whether a given effect is the result of a particular cause. Causal relationships are examined in experiments and experiment-like studies called quasi-experiments. More is said about experiments below.

Descriptive studies address a wide range of topics. For example, a report of average test scores for students at different schools would be descriptive. So would a study of the number of words comprising recognition vocabulary of children at succeeding ages. Descriptive studies include a number of subtypes.

For example, studies of characteristics such as preferred types of play or ability to perform certain intellectual tasks may entail observation of fresh samples of children at successive chronological age levels. Such studies are called "cross-sectional" descriptive research. Studies that examine the same characteristics but observe the same individual children over a period of years are called "longitudinal."

Quantitative descriptive studies also include reports of correlational relationships between variables. An example of a correlational study would be one that describes the degree of relationship between family socioeconomic status and school achievement. Another example is hyperactivity's relationship to junk food consumption. Correlational studies are among those most frequently misinterpreted by users of educational research.

Despite its current unpopularity among educators, there is a great deal of high-quality quantitative research in education. It includes disquieting descriptive findings such as falling SAT scores and reports of low math and science achievement and similarly disquieting experimental results such as those of the Follow Through project. In the opinion of the authors, quantitative research's unpopularity may well be related to its disagreeable results. Findings that affirm orthodoxy are clearly more popular.

Qualitative research in education is a growth industry. It is a type of research long used in fields such as cultural anthropology. Qualitative research relies on written description instead of objective measurement, and its findings are subject to all the vagaries associated with written descriptions of any kind. Rather than attempting to affirm hypotheses and make generalizations that are grounded on an agreed-upon objective framework, qualitative research is more concerned with description as subjectively perceived by an observer in context.

Such descriptions are thought to be more honest and realistic than descriptions that purport to be objective and at arm's length. It is a form of research premised on a postmodern, multiculturalist view of science. It argues that the objective understanding to which traditional science aspires is nothing more than an arbitrary Western convention--one educators should be free to reject.

By avoiding a focus on particular variables of interest, qualitative research presumably avoids the imposition of cultural bias. Of course such a process ignores the very information typically sought by the consumer. For example, a teacher's question about whether one teaching method produces greater achievement than another would not be answered by a qualitative study. Qualitative studies do not "prove" or "disprove" anything. They can only describe. The validity of such studies is simply an open question (Krathwohl, 1993).

The vagueness of the methods used in qualitative studies invites observer bias. Observers are necessarily selective in their observations. For example, an observer who dislikes the punishment seen in a classroom may tend to note the negative emotional reactions of students more than would a disinterested observer.

By contrast, a more impartial observer might give greater attention to the increased on-task behavior that may be effected by the use of punishment. Although there are ways to make such observations more reliable, they are far more subject to researcher bias than most quantitative reports.

Action Research

Like qualitative research, action research has gained in popularity among educators. Wiersma (1995) describes it as research "conducted by teachers, administrators, or other educational professionals for solving a specific problem or for providing information for decision making at the local level" (p. 11). Action research is typically quantitative but less rigorous in design and methodology than conventional quantitative research.

The following is a classroom level example: A teacher is having discipline problems during her fifth-period class. She arranges the desks differently and assesses whether the discipline problems are reduced. A written report of her investigation, including data, analysis, and a brief discussion, would be considered action research.

Would such a finding be a sufficient basis for recommending that teachers employ rearranged desks as a means of treating discipline problems? In theory it would not. Practice, however, is another matter. Despite methodological weaknesses--in the present example, a single class sample and no control group--such findings are sometimes used to bolster proposals for new and innovative programs.

Pseudoresearch

Pseudoresearch is a form of scholarly writing that appears to make factual claims based on evidence but, in fact, consists only of opinion founded on opinion. Previous studies are cited, but they contain only theory and opinion. Legitimate empirical reports traditionally present a review of literature that enables the reader to put new findings in context and to strengthen factual generalizations (Stanovich,1996). However, previous studies containing only opinion do nothing to strengthen the report that cites them.

Commonsense educational claims are often supported by such "research." For example, if an expert opines that schooling is improved by greater funding and if other experts cite and endorse that original claim, subsequent reports will contain what appears to be substantiation.

* If the claim seems plausible and thus goes unquestioned, it appears to gain acceptance as a fact without ever being tested. Such claims are said to be supported by "research" but it is "research" in the sense of a systematic review of relevant literature, not in the sense of studies that offer an empirical foundation for factual assertions.

Educational innovations that are consistent with popular educational doctrines are often supported by such research. The controversial but widely used whole-language reading instruction (discussed below), for example, goes unquestioned by most educators because it fits hand-in-glove with learner-centered pedagogy. It is supported primarily by favorable opinion among like-minded educators, not demonstrated experimental results.

A type of research that seems to produce empirical facts from opinion is a group-interaction process called the Delphi method (Eason, 1992; Strauss & Zeigler, 1975). However, instead of creating the appearance of empirically grounded fact from multiple reports of opinion (as does pseudoresearch), the * Delphi method creates facts about opinion.

In Delphi research, the opinions of experts are collected and synthesized in a multistage, iterative process. For example, if a researcher sought to determine the future occupations open to high school graduates, he or she might consult a panel consisting of career counselors, former high school students, employers, and economists. The panelists would be asked to compose a list of prospective jobs, and they would each share their list with the other panelists.

After viewing the lists of other panelists some members might choose to change their estimations, and their changes would then be shared with the other panelists in a second round of mutual review. Ideally, three or so rounds of sharing and realignment would produce a consensus. The "fact" resulting from such a study is that experts agree about the future availability of certain jobs, not that certain jobs have a high probability of being available.

A recent attempt to find effective institution-to-home "transition strategies" for disabled juvenile delinquents illustrates how a Delphi consensus can be confused with an empirically grounded conclusion. Following three rounds of surveys, Pollard, Pollard, and Meers (1994) concluded that the priorities identified by the panelists provided a "blueprint for successful transition" when, in fact, the surveys produced only a consensus about what may or may not prove to be a successful blueprint.

Rand corporation is credited with developing the Delphi technique as a means of distilling a consensus of expert opinion. Sackman (1974) has summarized its primary shortcomings. The expert status of panelists is not scientifically verifiable and neither is the assumption that group opinion is superior to individual opinion.

One other confusion about the Delphi technique pertains to its use by the leader of a deliberative body. Delphi methodology can create the appearance of consensus where none exists--a problematic outcome of a deliberative process. Technically, the Delphi technique does not force a consensus; but as a practical matter, it is designed to produce a consensus and it puts substantial pressure on dissenters for conformity to the group.

When employed by the leadership of a deliberative group, it can turn what should be an open and fair-minded exchange of views into a power struggle. Minority viewpoints can be isolated and marginalized. The result is more mindless conformity than reasoned agreement. The conclusions reached by committees and policy-making bodies can easily be distorted by Delphi methodology.

Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Research

Experiments are quantitative studies in which cause-effect relationships are tested (Campbell and Stanley, 1966). Quasi-experiments attempt the same but with certain limitations. Other studies may suggest or imply causal relationships, but their findings are far more ambiguous and subject to misinterpretation. Experiments are not foolproof, but they afford the best evidence science has to offer.

From a purely scientific standpoint, experiments are important because they attempt to answer the primary question with which science is concerned:

"What explains or accounts for the phenomenon under investigation?"

All sciences aspire to this kind of understanding. They are valuable from a practical standpoint, too, because they address the question of whether a given program, teaching method, treatment, intervention, curriculum, and the like produces expected effects.

Because schooling is intended as means of making a difference in the lives of students, the armamentarium of professional educators should contain tools that are well tested and demonstrably effective. Ideally, they should also be convenient, cost-effective, and well received by the student; but at a minimum, they must be effective.

The critical importance of experimental evidence in establishing effectiveness is not well understood by educators, but it is just such an understanding that is at the heart of knowing which research is valuable and why.

The aim of science is said to be the explanation of natural phenomena. However, the term explanation itself requires a bit of explanation. As the term is used by scientists, explanation refers to cause-and-effect explanation.

For example, a phenomenon such as achievement in school is said to be explained (or at least partially explained) if it can be shown that the presence or absence of achievement is functionally (i.e., causally) related to a preceding event or set of events termed a cause. A functional or causal relationship is initially stated in a tentative form called a hypothesis and is not considered a valid explanation until affirmed by evidence.

Experimental research is the business of collecting evidence that might support or disconfirm causal hypotheses. It entails the manipulation of a hypothesized cause for the purpose of inducing an expected effect. If a given effect (technically, a change in the "dependent variable") follows alteration of the purported cause (technically, a change in the "independent variable"), the causal hypothesis is said to be supported.

Other types of quantitative research and even qualitative research may be valuable in suggesting cause-effect hypotheses, but only experimental research can provide a direct test.

Internal and External Validity of Studies

Whether an empirical study is capable of demonstrating a causal relationship is one issue, but whether a given experiment was properly conducted is another. Moreover, even a properly conducted experiment may have limited applicability and usefulness in the "real world."

Whether the procedures used in an experiment permit valid findings is the matter of internal validity.

Whether the findings of an experiment are generally applicable to the "real world" (i.e., applicable under conditions beyond those under which the study was conducted) is the matter of external validity.

A wide variety of technical considerations can adversely influence the internal validity of an experiment. For example, the manner in which subjects were assigned to treatment and comparison groups can profoundly affect the outcome of an otherwise well-designed experiment.

Technical issues with respect to type of sampling and type of population sampled, for example, can greatly influence the external validity of a study.

Accurate assessment of these and other technical details requires considerable expertise. Even well-informed investigators may overlook significant threats to the validity of an experiment. Cook and Campbell (1979) provide an authoritative discussion of the myriad considerations that should be considered. Happily there are at least three considerations that a nonexpert can examine to assess the internal validity of a study: source, convergence, and replication.

Source. If a study is reported in a peer-reviewed scholarly journal, chances are good that it meets acceptable standards of internal and external validity. Peer review typically entails blind review of a manuscript by a panel of experts selected by an editor. Panelists are not given the author's name and the author is not given the reviewers' names. All criticisms and replies are exchanged through the editor. The most reputable and selective journals use this process.

Reports reviewed only by an editor may be valid, but peer-reviewed scholarship is generally conceded to be the most credible. Again, the process is not foolproof, but it is the best science has to offer.

Unpublished reports and reports that are not subject to editorial review--grant proposals and reports of funded research such as those included in the ERIC's Research in Education, for example--are of uncertain quality and should be treated as such.

Convergence. If a study's findings are generally consistent with (i.e., they converge with) the findings of other investigations in an area of research, they are generally assumed credible (Stanovich, 1996). Any competent research report will include a review of relevant literature. Consistencies and discrepancies within the existing literature and between the report at hand and previous studies are analyzed and discussed.

Articles called "reviews of literature" and "meta-analyses" are dedicated to citing and summarizing all of the findings relevant to a given topic or area of study.

Although new and revolutionary findings are sometimes uncovered by a single study, competent observations of the same or similar phenomena usually result in similar findings. Most scientific advancements come as incremental additions to understanding, not breakthroughs.

Replication. Replications are repeats of an original study by another investigator using a fresh set of subjects. The credibility of a study that has been replicated is greatly enhanced. Findings that have been replicated are considered valid even if they do not converge with other reports in the same general area of investigation. Only a small percentage of studies in the behavioral sciences are replicated, however.

The Need for Both Experiments and Field Testing

Few experimental investigations are able to fully satisfy requirements for both internal and external validity in a single study. The controls, artificial conditions, and other constraints necessary to ensure internal validity tend to interfere with external validity. Conversely, unanticipated and uncontrolled events can confound or invalidate an otherwise well-conceived study that is conducted in a natural environment such as a school.

Because of this inherent conflict, programs or interventions derived from experimental investigations should be field tested prior to implementation.

Field tests are trials of an experimentally supported finding in the classroom or clinic or other setting for which it is intended. Not infrequently they result in the discovery of limitations, cautions, and restrictions on the applicability of experimentally validated findings. Even findings that have been field tested elsewhere may lack local applicability because of peculiar local conditions.

Thus, large-scale programs, in particular, should also be locally tested on a small scale in what is called a pilot study. Pilot studies are especially important when the implementation of research findings entail significant time and energy costs for school personnel or learning opportunity costs for students.

My comment

An example of the problem of research methods is the climate debate. Both sides quote ‘experts’ but only their own experts, not those of the other side. Thus there appears to be quite cogent science supporting the sceptic stance that man made global warming is not occurring and there is an august body of science also supporting that it is occurring.

Both sides ignore the other’s ‘science’ and continue to quote their own as some some of refutation. This is ‘pseudo-science’ and proves nothing.

In education, it is one of the key methods of forcing through ‘educational consensus’ on ‘latest discoveries’ supporting the socialistic thrust of the powers that be in education and the results are now out there for the whole community to see.

Hover near a group of chavs and listen to their conversation for more anecdotal evidence of the plight of education in our community.

Friday, May 08, 2009

[russia one year on] has anything changed


My eyewitness information is now [coming up to being] a year out of date but primary source material still comes in from Russia as to what’s happening in that great land – I’m pumping one girl for as much as I can about the current state of play.

As is often the case with eyewitness and primary sources, they’re of less use than what researchers can offer, being specific to the situation those sources find themselves in. However, there are enough different sources currently coming in to my inbox, to attempt a comparison between Russia and Britain.

Both are facing depression and both have interesting set-ups at the top but one difference, it seems to me, is that not only are prices artificially kept in check over there, they are able to be. By this, I mean that Russia is still not sufficiently part of the market economy that it feels the strictures of process.

Here, if Darling says it is so, there are a thousand pundits to point out that he’s either in cloud cuckoo land or telling porkies. Everyone knows Britain’s debt. In Russia, everyone knows it is oil and gas which keep things afloat and when the Duma says, ‘This is,’ usually it is, until next week at least, when they may have changed their minds. Either way, the pan-Russian public just accepts it and puts it down to being Moscow’s doing.

The original model for our UKSSR, soviet Russia left a legacy of red tape and criminalization which put the average punter into a position, long ago, of having to ignore the million and one tiny regulations but to concentrate instead on the ‘regulation of the week’ which the powers that be happen to be pushing.

For example, everyone knows when the police have been instructed to pull over drivers for having half a wheel on a white line and with the state of the roads over there, it’s impossible to take any journey without four or five times committing that particular breach. Therefore, one doesn’t travel by car that day or else takes a route where the GAI are not likely to be. Usually these things happen when the coffers are low, at certain significant moments in the year.

Another difference is that apparently the mini-skirt is back in fashion and over there, the young women are absolutely everywhere, on every street, in every shop, anywhere you try to turn - there they are. It would be difficult for a man in the main shopping streets just at this point. Over here, women are only just de-rugging.

There’ve apparently been changes to tertiary education over there and I’m trying to get my friends to fathom those and be a little more than mono-syllabic in their replies. More on that at a later time.

I suspect that things are not a great deal different to what people can remember in the ‘bad old days’, a debatable question over there as to whether they were the bad old days and Russians are uniquely placed to cope with deep privations and dire circumstances in general. Over here, only the war generation would be prepared for what is coming up in late 2009 to mid 2010.

Having siad that, the Brits are perhaps halfway between the Americans and Russians for being able to batten down hatches and live on a shoestring, to shamelessly mix metaphors, as is my wont.

There’s a popular joke in some quarters in Russia and it goes a little like this:

There was a tank broken down in the desert. An American was sent out to assess it, he got to the core of the problem and ordered the part from Pittsburg, waiting time six weeks.

Two Brits came out to assess the problem, looked over, under and around, one raised his eyebrows, muttered, ‘Typical, in’it?’ to which the other said, ‘Big job, that. American tank. We’ll need to make a list of parts and we’ll sort it tomorrow, at 2.55 p.m.’

They departed the scene to get the requisite gear, for which they’d need to submit a Form SQ23-4h5, a J7D/347/T27 and possibly a K43 in triplicate plus they’d have to check that the officers authorized to do the repairs possessed the relevant NVQs. They’d be back tomorrow at 2.55 p.m and if a Brit says it won’t be sorted before 2.55 p.m. then, barring someone being called onto another job, in which case they’d need to reassess the return time, it will be sorted at 2.55 p.m.

A Russian came out, looked over, under etc., then broke for a cigarette. Two more Russians arrived, all shook hands and they discussed the matter, handing ciggies around. Four more, including two women, saw this group, came over, shook hands, cigarettes were passed round again, at which five more came upon the scene, cigarettes etc. etc.

Half swarmed over the machine and the other half remained smoking, for moral support. Dima called out, from under the tank, for someone to throw him down some chewing gum and one of the girl’s hairclips. After some time, he called out for Sergei to try the ignition.

The tank spluttered but wouldn’t start.

They broke for cigarettes and another brainstorming conference began, at which they discussed the two eternal Russian questions, in this order: ‘Who’s to blame and what to do?’

Time to break for a nip of vodka. Someone had brought some dried fish and khlep [bread].

In a better frame of mind now, everyone staggered back and then Misha saw the crux of the problem, common sense really, where before all had been fog. One of the girls’ panyhose, a hairclip and two chewed pieces of gum later, Sergei tried the ignition, it growled and spluttered, then suddenly sprang into life.

They all broke for a couple more nips and some ciggies, a good day’s work having been put in and some super lovemaking coming up late evening. Then they piled into, onto and around the tank and drove back to camp.

On Monday - why it is still possible to starve in Russia.


Good Trance

Sometimes I find it amusing to be looking for a song on YouTube and then finding another one, completely by accident. Usually, the accidentally found one turns out to be quite good.

Such was the case last night when I was looking for "Ibiza Sunrise" by Labworks:



One question I've always had, since I never have been to Ibiza, (even during my six month sojourn in Spain) is why do they have these chicks in two piece swimsuits? You look at any, and I mean any song on YouTube that is from the electronica genre and you will find one version of the song (if it's only the song) that has an avatar or a real photo of some chick in a two piece. It's as if the two piece swimsuit and chick are symbols of the place.

A brief primer (please don't take this as the definitive word, as I'm just now learning although I've dabbled in the genre for a number of years now) on electronic sub-genres:

house - a genre that usually (but not always) has vocals and is generally listened to in (where else?) your house

trance - a genre that employs usually only methodic beats without vocals, very popular in clubs

dance - a genre that is easy to dance to (usually remixes of pop songs from what I've found)

Back to my story, last night I searched for Labworks' "Ibiza Sunrise" by typing in "sunrise on Ibiza" on YouTube and this came up



It is now my new favorite trance song. Enjoy!

PS: Did I mention I just finished my last final of my undergrad epoch? Joy!

[copyright] shows you have to be careful

That header of the shoreline and boat at sunset came about this way. I had the large picture and trimmed it to header size, accentuated and did bibs and bobs, then had it hosted.

Fine. The original had been in my store for years, I couldn't recall from where but as i thought about it, it seemed to look like one of Gary Dierking's boats [he's known for that super-smooth strip-planking]. So today I thought I'd check his site out again and what a shock. Not only did he crop the way I did but he used the Papyrus font, as I do in many pics I use.

If you were to compare the two, it looks as if I've just come along and lifted his pic whereas I can assure anyone it was not so. Anyway, look through his site, he's a nice chap that I've had correspondence with from time to time.

[opera] elite test

To be a true member of Them, you’ll need to display an appreciation of opera. Supply the name of the composers from the initial letters:

1. Eugene Onegin…..1879…..T
2. The Tales of Hoffman…..1881…..O
3. Prince Igor…..1890…..B
4. La Boheme…..1896…..P
5. Salome …..1905…..RS

Answers

Tchaikovsky, Offenbach, Borodin, Puccini, Richard Strauss

[staying together] or taking the easy way out


This article by Cate Russell makes some good points about why people break up:

When I was in college, I was shocked when one of our psychology teachers
told the class he didn't expect his marriage to last. He had concluded that two people just aren't able to stay together forever as they change and grow. I was twenty years old, in love for the first time, and horrified at his defeatist attitude.

I now know from personal experience that it can be really rough going to keep a relationship strong, but I still disagree that marital failure is inevitable. I believe that a relationship is worth the love, energy, time and history which is invested in it, and all avenues to improve it, rather than abandon it, should be taken unless it is abusive or dangerous.

Once the passion and newness of a relationship has died down many disappointments do surface, and they take a lot of effort to come to terms with, and rebuild around. You may not treat each other as tenderly or considerately as you did before. The romance may have died, or the affection may have dwindled. There may be financial pressures, unemployment, sickness, the stresses that the arrival of children bring, or serious problems with other family members.

The internal pressures of realising that Mr Right is Mr Average, and isn't the white knight you thought he was going to be, coupled with the external problems you both face, can lock the greatest love story of all time in a pressure cooker to see how long it can handle boiling point! It is painful. Some couples stay together, and adapt and cope as best they can as a unit. Others become disillusioned and feel robbed. They pull apart and retreat to safer territory.

According to the experts who study relationships, the greatest predictor of divorce is how close the couple feel to each other. This is displayed in black and white when a couple faces conflict. When you watch couples fight, it is like watching a love meter which registers where they are really at. Do they get nasty and try and score points off each other? Do they avoid the problems? Are they defensive or critical? Do they bring up past hurts, whether they have been resolved before or not? If so, that couple could very well be headed for a break up within two years.

The decision to split up doesn't come because of differences in each partner's expectations of the other, domestic annoyances like leaving the cap off the toothpaste, or differences in personality. Splits happen when there is a loss of love, intimate sharing and connection. As human being we all need connection.

This is what holds families and societies together, and what can make or break a marriage. Attacking, criticising and being defensive in conflict, show that the emotional connection between the two parties is lacking. They may not feel loved or valued. Communication on a deep level is often missing, and there is more tension present than togetherness.

Couples that still show consideration for each other, even in a tense, hurtful situation, are far more likely to pull through and find a way to resolve their problems. They may use humour to break the tension. They don't blame and criticise, but rather, they acknowledge each other's viewpoint while not backing down from their feelings, or withdrawing just to escape facing up to what is going wrong.

Using kindness and honesty in a conflict, no matter how much you are hurting, is not only an indicator of an individual's maturity and relationship skills, but also how much they respect and are bonded to the other person. Kindness can prove that they see the relationship as a worthwhile investment, and they want to keep it alive.

So how do you know if you're headed for a break up? If you feel dissatisfied, even if you don't know why. If you don't share things with your partner the way you used to: big and small, daily and life changing decisions included. If you feel like you don't know each other, and are living together as two isolated, separate individuals rather than a unit.

The biggest warning sign is whether you are going ahead making decisions about what you want to do with your life without consulting with, or considering the needs of your partner.

However, just because you are in trouble doesn't mean break up is inevitable, and nothing can be done. If you are willing to work at it, and risk some failures while you are aiming for the successes, you can build a better quality more loving relationship, built on communication, genuine sincerity and trust.

The commitment to stay in a relationship is not just made at the beginning. It is re-evaluated periodically as the value of your loved one and their relevance to your life is reconsidered in tough moments.

Successful long term partners have been studied, and often it was found that they didn't consider splitting up or divorce to be an option. They had made a commitment, and the preciousness of their partner overrode the highs and lows they knew they would face.

All couples experience pain and dissatisfaction with each other at various times. Some days it may seem so intense that breaking up is the only escape. Yet life too throws us the same hand, and we choose to keep trying.

All couples are closer emotionally at some times and not others. There will always be demands on us which will alter our priorities, and conflicts and crisis' will always arise. It's our decision whether to give in and quit, or find a way forward and stay together.

Essentially, whether you break up or not is your decision. It is an act of your own free will, no matter what the circumstances are, or how hopeless and damaged the situation may seem at the time. As the slogan of one Australian bank neatly puts it, "Make It Happen."

Cate Russell, 26th August, 2001

Her point about:

Successful long term partners have been studied, and often it was found that they didn't consider splitting up or divorce to be an option. They had made a commitment, and the preciousness of their partner overrode the highs and lows they knew they would face.

… is an excellent one and reveals the extent to which society today goes for the soft option and the easy way out. However, the article above doesn't take into account some other factors, such as:

1. The global external pressures present today, e.g. internet, alternative youth 'culture', gaming, clubbing, permissiveness, the 'me first' mentality and of course – the economic depression. Money is a major factor in breakups for people fixated on acquisition of material goods.

2. Nagging. This is a word you never read of in articles written by women and yet it is a major factor in break-ups. That shopping list of faults and the sour-faced look do more to drive a man away than almost anything else, under the guise of 'trying to talk' or 'improving him'. In the article above, this does not appear as a prime cause.

In a similar way, non-gender-specifically, one of the killers of a relationship is the partner who says, 'Let's talk,' or 'Let's work together,' by which he/she means, 'Let's agree to do things my way.' The Beatles song We Can Work It Out addresses that directly. 'We' here means that you must see it my way. Why is it that the person who calls for dialogue is often the one less able to accept the other's position?

3. The refusal of boys today to accept responsibility for impregnating girls or even just committing to a partnership and the refusal of girls to say no or to be discerning and by so doing, allowing the boys to refuse to accept responsibility and so on.

A more recent phenomenon is the widespread, parallel refusal of girls to commit and thus the seeds have been sewn for a gomorrah type situation in the not too distant future, ushering in Huxley's Brave New World.

4. Cate Russell makes another good point: 'When you watch couples fight, it is like watching a love meter which registers where they are really at.'

It comes down to why they're together in the first place. Was it because she was pregnant, because they were genuinely in love, both of them, because they were frightened of being alone … what?