Friday, October 05, 2007

[situation update] always look on the bright side

16:15 London time

Situation seems to be that it's giving me about 30 minutes typing time before the screen [videocard] goes down. The Mac doesn't come until the 12th. This could mean sudden cessation of blogging at any time in the interim which is a pity because the reader level has been wonderful these past two weeks and I've now got my Google Reader working a treat as of this morning.

All of that pales into insignificance compared to what's happening outside in the markets and on the streets. There is a very ugly mood and even a grandmother spoke of vostaniya or uprising today. The prices are now ridiculous - halfway to western prices but the salaries are stagnant at the level of two years ago.

Examples - milk is now [all in American currency in this post] $2 a litre, petrol $1 a litre, 200g of cheese $3, 1kg of mincemeat $9. Doesn't sound a lot but look at the salaries.

Qualified five year teacher $196 a month and pensioner $100 a month. Tax at 13% flat rate [good aspect] comes out of this money. It is not possible to eat meat in most households more than twice a week now.

Naturally the amount I pay on this flat doubled today. They say it's going to double again in November but with no increase in salaries [liquidity crisis, you know because the banks speculated with fiat money].

We're all very happy over here and thanks for asking. At least I seem to be out of the one week of flu now. Silver lining.

11:36 London time

Don't know whether you can read this or not - I can't and therefore can't check spelling but my screen ahs given out. New videocard needed but not obtainable as it's so old. Therefore new computer motherboard and different slots required

We have just had 40-80% price hikes over here so a new computer is not affordable, especially as I've paid for and am waiting for the Mac. Not good - maybe no blogging or at least a minimal amount. Don't know if this will post but if it does, you know the situation. Sorry.

[country spread] this morning

11:15 My crazed reader origin stats [crazed stats, not readers] - this will reverse [usually] by midnight with the Brits taking top spot but other countries [usually] stay much the same.

Now look how it's altered during the day. It's now 16:39 and as you can see, the Brits have taken top spot again. This will increase towards midnight. Interesting, huh?

[All percentages refer to the last 100 readers.]


[humour check] is this skit funny or not

This is one of the Python skits from the early 70s. Your reaction to it will speak volumes about you, yourself.

The skit itself

(Fade in - TV interview set. Interviewer sitting with man with large polystyrene nose.)

Interviewer (Michael Palin): Good evening. I have with me in the studio tonight one of the country's leading skin specialists - Raymond Luxury Yacht.

Raymond (Graham Chapman): That's not my name.

Interviewer: I'm sorry - Raymond Luxury Yachet.

Raymond: No, no, no - it's spelt Raymond Luxury Yachet, but it's pronounced 'Throatwarbler Mangrove'.

Interviewer: You're a very silly man and I'm not going to interview you.

Raymond: Ah, anti-Semitism!

Interviewer: Not at all. It's not even a proper nose. (takes it off him) It's polystyrene.

Raymond: Give me my nose back.

Interviewer: You can collect it at reception. Now go away.

Raymond: I want to be on television.

Interviewer: Well you can't.

Possible reactions

Rational libertarian [chuckling]: Python were classic, weren't they? Mind you, you'd better be careful who you show that to these days …

Left liberal [stiffly]: Dated, aren't they? I would have thought we'd moved on from this kind of cheap, racial stereotyping by 2007. Seems not.

PC devotee: This is the sort of crass, philistine pig-ignorance we've tried to eliminate from rational debate these days. You think it's very funny, don't you? Well, let me tell you you're nothing but an unreconstructed racist, a throwback to a former, darker time and I wish to have nothing further to do with you. Dear oh dear. Good day!

Russian or American [possibly]: Was there something funny just then?

Russians

I've just been running through the Dead Parrot Sketch with a lady friend and once she understood the words, she found the humour understandable and would like a copy of as much Python as I can give her.

Americans

I'd be interested to read in the comments section from my friends.

[economics 101] all life in terms of money

Scenario 1

As a non-economist, reading economists can be an entertaining business. Chris Dillow, for example, explains human relationships in terms of economics and sees co-habiting as a call option, irrespective of its moral standing.

The Financial Times, one of my favourite sources of often fictional entertainment, has conflicting points of view. Firstly, that credit squeeze and our darling Chancellor of the Exchequer:

Britain’s economy will be hit by the global credit squeeze, forcing the government to downgrade its growth forecasts ahead of a possible general election, the chancellor of the exchequer admitted on Thursday.

The media is being partly blamed for this:

For the allegation that is now being bandied about is that irresponsible media coverage played a role in turning this summer’s credit turmoil into a crisis.

On the other hand, other FT columnists seem to be talking up the economy:

Most emerging economies, on the back of buoyant global demand and high commodity prices, have expanded rapidly and are less vulnerable to external shocks. Robust earnings growth and reduced country risk have propelled stock markets higher and bond yields lower.

Scenario 2

We have a liquidity problem in our banks over here which is only just emerging. This has not yet affected the average customer, except in the refusal of loans. However, on the strength of the words "possible crisis", retailers who've been itching to raise prices have suddenly done so. And how!

Milk is 40% more today than last Friday. My computer I'm in the process of buying [things take ages in Russia], has suddenly jumped 81% in cost, irrespective of the fact that I've already paid. All goods have alarmingly surged in price.

There is absolutely no direct economic connection between the bank problems and the price hikes except the age old justification of greed and I ran this by a Financial Services client yesterday who was mystified and yet not mystified.

Conclusion

In my jaundiced opinion, the doom and gloom talk from the Treasury disguises something disquietening. There may be no economic justification for a global squeeze [see the last quote above] but the CBs and Treasuries are sure trying to talk us into one.

In other words, they know very well what's going down. Couple that with accompanying moves in the field of surveillance legislation et al, the Regulation of Investigatory Powers Act and its corollary discussed here in Phil A's post plus the move to regional assemblies - and it's looking increasingly like a gang of criminals up there in charge of us all.

Actually, without putting a label on it, it's an agenda. Deliberate mismanagement by the CBs, particularly the Fed, allowing unbridled speculative trading, bubble bursting, credit squeeze in economies hocked up to the eyeballs, bank liquidity crises, baling out and debt creation of the domestic banks by the CBs, runs on the banks, calling in of credit debts, bank closures, massive unemployment, selective terrorist attacks preceding newly prepared legislation, strong man arising to sort out the mess, [Stalin, Roosevelt, Churchill], inevitable war, suspension of the party system in favour of a combined government, evaporation of the bourgeoisie.

Call me a kook now in 2007. We'll see how wrong this scenario is in the next few years. If it does pan out this way, I assure you there'll be zero pleasure derived from it.

Thursday, October 04, 2007

[burma] human tragedy in the making

Y gwir cywilyddus ydy - a barnu o hanes rhyngwladol - bod yr unig rai sy'n gallu helpu pobl Byrma yn effeithiol ar hyn o bryd ydy'r Byrmaniaid eu hun. Ac mae hynny yn golygu llawer o fodau dynol byw yn dod yn llawer o gelanedd pydredig oer. Croeso i'r unfed ganrif ar hugain: yr un mor hyll â'r canrif blaenorol, ond ein bod bellach yn gallu ei wylio ar YouTube.

I failed to understand the idea was to only post once in the day. It does not lessen the night's thoughts on the matter.

[cecilia] you're breaking my heart

Simon and Garfunkel sang: " Cécilia, you're breaking my heart, you're shaking my confidence daily."

If I could only get an unbiased non-feminist to explain this woman, Cécilia Sarkozy, to me, I'd be appreciative. Take her absence in Bulgaria today, after she'd negotiated the release of the nurses a month ago:

L'absence de l'épouse du chef de l'Etat à Sofia, où elle devait être décorée en même temps que lui pour son rôle en faveur des infirmières bulgares, a été très remarquée. L’intervention de Cécilia Sarkozy dans la libération des infirmières bulgares a été "en tous points remarquable, et d'une certaine façon décisive même".

In a nutshell, the EU clearly paid some sort of largesse to Libya, Cécilia did her part and got the credit for the release of the hostages, Nicolas did his part for the EU and all was sweet. But when the denouement was planned in Sofia, the heroine did not roll up.

Whyever not? And why didn't she attend the earlier Bush function, a move widely seen as a snub? French regional newspaper Le Telegramme wrote in its Monday edition at the time:

"What does the wife of the president of the republic want? To live her life as she likes, without constraint? In which case, why does she accept invitations, like that made personally by Laura Bush?" it added, saying that U.S. first lady Laura had personally organized the lunch with Cécilia.

Please allow me to state that I'm no stranger myself to such behaviour. Months ago I missed an award to be made to me at a university function and it did not go down well. The thing was, I was really sick at that time so Cécilia Sarkozy's sore throat - well, it's understandable that it might have been true at the time of the Bush invitation.

Except that she was seen shopping the day before and the day after.

Forgive me but this seems just a little too Princess Di to me and whatever you might personally think of The Firm, they do attend to their commitments. In the case of the Bulgarians, it does seem to me a bit of a slap in the face towards that nation.

Plus, there is the question of the re-election a few years from now. Marie-Ségolène Royal has not gone away and a much loved Cécilia would surely go a long way towards keeping France blue?

[atheists] and the statistics of religion


Chuckle - I do like Vox:

Mike doesn't do his homework:
Look at what the illiterate believe. By far most of them believe the bible is the word of God. Most of the barely literate believe likewise. As you move up the scale of literacy, you find belief in the Bible drops off.
Actually, the nation which has the highest percentage of atheists in the Western world, France, only ranks 27th in literacy; it's 99 percent rating is equal to that of the notoriously religious United States. Vatican City, meanwhile, has a 100 percent literacy rate; ultra-Catholic Poland ranks 9th, compared to secular Sweden's ranking of 28th.

It never ceases to amaze me how much the typical atheist approach to debate resembles that of the medieval religious philosopher. No facts, no evidence, just a logical structure constructed upon a baseless assumption.

Now that's going to set the cat among the pigeons.

[gold or silver] as long as it's commodities

Sackerson reports:

"Central banks have 10-15,000 tonnes of gold less than their officially reported reserves of 31,000" the Chevreux report announced. "This gold has been lent to bullion banks and their counterparties and has already been sold for jewelry, etc."

"Start hoarding," said Paul Mylchreet...

And the CBs are not pro-active in this matter? It seems silver is a better bet. This current release of gold smells distinctly off.

Seeking Alpha looks at silver, as does AME, who note:

… volatility is your main problem. Thus you should not put money into silver that you may need to call on …

and

Trading in silver options is for experts and even they will avoid margin because of the volatility factor; this is not for the average investor.

You need to progressively pick up small amounts and see it as long. It's not a market consideration - it's a long term safety consideration.

Fin24 looks at platinum and this is current:

"Platinum metal demand is thus dominated by two superb drivers; supportive environmental legislation and the burgeoning Chinese consumer."

Reuters looked at nickel in January so that's a possibility too.

It depends how you see the situation, either as an oncoming bear market or as something more dire and the recent Fed rates seem to suggest the latter, combined with all the other non-financial societal moves going on.

If it is more dire, than commodities funds would not seem so wise although defensive industries might be a reasonable strategy.

Bear market or something a bit more fractured?

[incarceration] looking for alternatives

The Supreme Court struggled Tuesday with how much discretion U.S. judges have to give lenient sentences, including in crack cocaine cases.

Justice Department lawyer Michael Dreeben, seeking to win longer sentences for … two men, urged an approach used by many appeals courts. It demands that a sentence varying significantly from the guidelines be justified by a rationale that is equally weighty.

Justice John Paul Stevens wondered if that test was too vague: "How do you measure the strength of the justifications?"

The Jailhouse Lawyer would no doubt have much to say on this and to put it in simplistic terms for the layman such as myself, the argument seems to boil down to whether:

# sentences should be statutory and if so, who determines which crime carries which sentence;

# sentences should be discretionary for justices and if so, whether this should be cross the board or whether it should be within defined limits, with "weighting" given to certain offences. The "three strikes and you're out" approach is part of this argument.

I don't know the answer to this but what I do know is that with the move to the new feudalism, there are going to be many more citizens incarcerated than formerly. The frightening new U.K. Regulation of Investigatory Powers Act and the U.S. equivalent will see to that.

Just look at Phil A's post for a start.

So perhaps it's time to think more laterally than the fines and/or incarceration which dominates and if taken too far, leads to prison hulks and transportation to Australia. I don't mean either corporal or capital punishment either.

Forbes ran an article on this, offering ten alternatives, including:

...drug treatment, faith based inner change [which I personally know to be the most efficacious], pay for prison stay, community based project for violence prevention, rich crims teaching in poor schools, car ignition interlocks, living in a slum for a period of time, chemical castration, abolish prison and invest in housing, facilities etc., billboard naming and shaming...

My own view is that elements of these, like community service for the victims or class of victims seems advantageous but this wouldn't work for crimes on the self, such as drug use, which perhaps should be decriminalized.

The very best way is for the individual to fill the hole of envious malevolence and materialism with spiritual wholeness but nobody seems to want to know about weirdo things like that.

Prison hulk on the Thames

Wednesday, October 03, 2007

[blogfocus wednesday] failure to find a theme

1. Colin Campbell needs no words here to convey the message. Click on the pic to get the idea.

2. Tuscan Tony rebuilt a different kind of house:

Not all my property adventures have been as replete with success as the Sussex one; I plunged deep into the market for my first foray in 1990, paying a princely £68,000 for the pictured terraced house in Dorking [below right]. I then proceeded to spend every weekend for the next 4 years restoring it lovingly. I did the loft conversion and put in the Velux, reroofed it, put in new pine floors throughout, replastered, put in new kitchen and bathroom, mostly aided and abetted by the first Mrs Tuscan. All work was done by me personally (idiot), and I learned more than I needed to know about the building trade.

4. L'Ombre recalls the joy of his non-Parisien house:

French people can be amazingly helpful and when we moved in we had almost exactly this experience:

When my uncle bought his Provençal house he called on his neighbour, a farmer in his sixties, and jokingly apologised for the fact they now had "des anglais" next door. The farmer merely responded, "Heureusement, vous n'êtes pas Parisien."

3. The Swearing Mother is also not Parisienne but is still moved by France:

The sight of the waiter bringing lunch, weaving through crowded tables, tray held high, makes you do a double take and wonder why this scene feels so familiar. A badly maintained front door, instead of looking scruffy and in need of attention, suddenly makes you want to paint it. And I don’t mean with two coats of Dulux, either. Everywhere you look, something is begging to be immortalized on canvas, and it's very likely that someone already has.

4. Meanwhile, Bag makes the logical connection between granddaughters and KGB records:

On the way back to the car with a poor wet little girl who had not coped too well with the delay. I overheard someone coming from another shop close to this one who were also unable to validate the cards and was looking for cash. Makes you think how dependent we are on the infrastructure that has built up over the last few decades. Technology. Not very good to us at the moment with the use our government is making of it. Just think, all those tax records, DVLA data, KGB records on us all.

5. Speaking of Stalinist records, Benedict White outlines how you'll be tracked down in the near future in Gordon's Britain:

Yesterday's Mail on Sunday carried the story that the government has passed legislation that requires telephone companies and Internet service providers to keep records of when and where telephone conversations and emails were sent. This will include tracking data on where mobile phones are.

6. Ian Parker shows the alternative - the stormtroopers:

Meanwhile, the Conservatives today published their plans for a homeland security force made up of two battalions and headed by a permanent leader. Former intelligence chief Dame Pauline Neville-Jones, who led a national and international policy group for the Conservatives, said: "We feel there needs to be a small force which is readily available, properly trained and has a command centre dedicated to looking after our territory at home."

HatTip Postman Patel

8. And finally, Tiberius Gracchus, in his usual insightful manner, gives an insight into Ian Curtis:

Curtis was, by the film's account, an appalling husband. He was unable to repay Debbie. Locked in his own world of creativity, he refused at times to even answer her when she knocked on the door of his room, refused even to climb the stairs to go to bed with her. He is so self focused, that at one point he even asks her whether she wants to sleep with other men. There are enough indications in the film to demonstrate that Curtis by the end found that he was dependent on Debbie but not attracted to her.

And while you're there, don't forget Dave Cole's gingerbread haka or Courtney Hamilton's teenage smoking. See you on Saturday I hope.

Tuscan Tony's palace - isn't it lovely looking into other people's backyards and seeing what they're up to?