Saturday, January 17, 2009

[cold winter] what really happened with the gas


Sometimes you just have to cut and paste, unabridged. this is the best piece yet on what actually happened with Russia and the Ukraine:

On October 2 last year, the Russian and Ukrainian prime ministers signed a memorandum envisaging the two countries' intention to switch to market prices in the business between their gas companies - Gazprom and Nafotgaz - with the Russian side allowed to sell directly to end users in Ukraine.

The follow-up negotiations were in an advanced stage by end-November when Kiev inexplicably began stalling on the repayment of pending debts for gas supplied to it earlier (an amount of US2.4 billion), which was a precondition for a new gas deal for 2009.

The transfer to market prices is important for Russia as it has been heavily subsidizing the supplies for Ukraine at an average cost of $179.5 per 1,000 cubic meters, whereas it buys and delivers from the Central Asian producers at $375 per 1,000 cubic meters. Russia sought a reduction of the subsidies with a gradual increase in gas price to $250 per cubic meters for the 2009 contract, but Ukraine declined and broke off negotiations. (Gazprom also pays a transit fee to Ukraine for getting the gas across to the European market at $1.6 per 1,000 cubic meters per 100 kilometers.)

With no contract to supply gas for 2009 in place, Moscow cut off the gas supplies to Ukraine on January 1. Ukraine retaliated by refusing to allow the transit of Russian gas to Europe. A related problem is that Ukraine had been illegally siphoning off gas destined for the European market and creating a gas reserve of its own at no cost.

Gazprom sold to Ukraine roughly 55 billion cubic meters (bcm) gas at $179 per 1,000 cubic meters in 2008 as compared to 155 bcm at roughly $480 per 1,000 cubic meters to the European market. That is to say, Gazprom earned in excess of six times as much revenue from European countries for only thrice the volume it sold to Ukraine. Based on 2008 sales, Gazprom lost $12 billion by selling gas at a subsidized price to Ukraine. The company is in the red and has asked for a financial bailout from the Russian government.

[vale] voyage round rumpole


Well, we can't very well let him go unmentioned. This is a good one from Melvyn Bragg:

"Life was encircled around that place in Turville and he was the monarch of that," Lord Bragg said. "We went to pay court to him and, to be honest, you went just to laugh and to hear the latest gossip and the latest book he'd read and 'what do you think of this and what do you think of that?' "There was a whiff of erudition and scandal always around John and it was completely seductive and he'll be badly, badly missed."

You can't replace people like that. He was unique.Tangentially, how certain actors have become their fictional characters. Could you imagine anyone except Leo McKern in the role of Rumpole? How about Joan Hickson as Miss Marple or David Suchet as Poirot, Basil Rathbone as Holmes or Fry and Laurie as Jeeves and Wooster?

Could you add some others?

[size matters] when you're flying


The Age Travel asks a fair question about obesity and flying - should those passengers have to purchase two economy tickets?

It's an issue airlines are having to face as more and more passengers get bigger and bigger - the practical consequences of an obesity epidemic. The options right now? Obese travellers can choose not to fly, fly if they can fit but be uncomfortable, or pay more to get more space.

"Should a customer require extra space on a flight, we will seat them next to an empty seat where possible," says a Qantas spokeswoman. "However, the only way for a customer to guarantee extra space is to either purchase two economy seats or fly business or first."

My first novel recounts the story, at one point, of a Mexican on the Greyhound bus from LA to Vancouver. I'd found a seat but there was no one next to me. Three people got on the bus - an ordinary guy, a slip of a young lady and a heavily obese Mexican. Mine was the last available place beside me and the girl won.

At the next town, damn it if she didn't get off the bus and immediately the Mexican, who'd been hovering near the back of the bus, swooped and I was jammed against the window with his stench in the nostrils for over half that journey. Not only that but he wouldn't sit still.

Nothing against Mexico but that was not a pleasant experience. I'm well aware obese people are very, very sensitive about the matter and hey, who doesn't carry fat? I can assure you that I have a winter layer but there does come a point when the obese person needs to recognize the limitations.

You'll call it cruel to mention this but on that same Greyhound ride further on, a woman tried to get on the bus and it took four of the men to lift her up and cram her onto the front row of the bus, go and buy her takeout and so on. The same happened in reverse at the other end.

The closest I've come to that was a great heavy boat I once had. Called a 505, it was a fast craft new but this one was ten years old and it took six people to haul it up the beach. Naturally, whenever we came back to the club, yachties on the beach would melt away into the foliage or to their cars.

In the end, I had to take drastic measures.

Friday, January 16, 2009

[only for guitarists] musicians' musicians



Hendrix, Clapton, Beck, Betts - they had the well-earned reputations but there were others, less sung, who were highly respected. Above is one of them, Roy Buchanan and below - Ry Cooder:



Finally, try Harvey Mandel:



Did I say finally? Well, all right, let it be Dickey Betts then:

[space] how to get the head around its vastness

When did you last sit back and contemplate space?

Thought so.

An interesting post by Bag concerned how one little error b---ered up a whole space journey - how would you feel? You've managed to get that far and then comes the one error. Blip. Gone.

Have you considered just how far that spaceship might have travelled by that stage and how vast space actually is? This was just a set of numbers in the head until a cool comparative scale model came to hand:

First, collect the objects you need. They are:

Sun-any ball, diameter 8.00 inches
Mercury-a pinhead, diameter 0.03 inch
Venus-a peppercorn, diameter 0.08 inch
Earth-a second peppercorn
Mars-a second pinhead
Jupiter-a chestnut or a pecan, diameter 0.90 inch
Saturn-a hazelnut or an acorn, diameter 0.70 inch
Uranus-a peanut or coffeebean, diameter 0.30 inch
Neptune-a second peanut or coffeebean
Pluto- a third pinhead (or smaller, since Pluto is the smallest planet)

Put the Sun ball down, and march 10 paces.
Put down Mercury and march 9 paces further.
Put down Venus and march 7 paces.
Put down Earth and march 14 paces.
Put down Mars and march 95 paces.
Put down Jupiter and march 112 paces.
Put down Saturn and march 249 paces.
Put down Uranus and march 281 paces.
Put down Neptune and march 242 paces.
Put down Pluto and take a rest because the next part is going to tire you out.

You have marched more than half a mile! Now, leaving aside the fact that the orbits aren’t two dimensional, it’s time for the next little jaunt 4000 miles [on our model] to find Proxima Centauri.

Light travels 186,283 miles (or 299,793 kilometers) per second. It could travel, for instance, 7 1/2 times around the Earth in one second.

Moon to Earth 1.28 light-seconds [2.4 inches]
Sun to Earth 8.3 light-minutes [26 yards]
Sun to Jupiter 43.27 light-minutes [132 yards]
Sun to Pluto 5 1/2 light-hours [1019 yards]
Sun to Proxima Centauri 4.22 light-years [4000 miles]

So there we are. Your homework - on this model, how far across is the universe?

H/T Bag

[freedom] twilight's last blogging

These are not my words but they could be:

Imperfect, divided, mutually quarrelsome as often as not; we still see the threats approaching and try, as best we can, to rearm the shrinking world of freedom and the culture it springs from. Even when things look as black as they do today for freedom’s cause, we need to fight and fight again, and plan and persuade and rage and swear and sneer and joke wherever and whenever we can.

Because the bad guys aren’t going to stop. So let’s hear it for Themistocles: the dirty, sneaky, pig-headed father of the West’s survival.

Please read the whole thing at North Northwester.

Thursday, January 15, 2009

[first aid quiz] will your patient die


1. What can a rescuer do to help a victim in shock?

a) Give the victim some water
b) Elevate the victim's feet
c) Cover the victim with a blanket
d) Both b and c

2. What should NEVER be placed on a burn?

a) Aloe
b) Water
c) Cocoa butter
d) Dry sterile dressing

3. How should a bee stinger be removed?

a) Wash it off
b) Scrape it off
c) Pull it out
d) It shouldn't, leave it in

4. Which of these is the most medically trained?

a) EMT
b) Paramedic
c) First responder
d) Firefighter

5. How long before the brain starts to die through lack of oxygen?

a) 15 - 20 minutes
b) 0 seconds
c) 3 - 4 minutes
d) 10 minutes

6. What is the first principal of First Aid treatment?

a) Preserve life of First Aider, casualty and bystanders
b) Make records to prevent litigation problems
c) Prevent casualty from getting worse
d) Promote general health of casualty

7. The contents of workplace First Aid boxes should include

a) Cotton wool and tweezers
b) A face shield and dressings
c) Aspirin tablets
d) Burn creams, calamine lotion and aloe vera

8. Nosebleeds are usually treated by

a) Putting a cold compress on the casualty's neck
b) Blowing the nose
c) Pinching the soft part of the nose and leaning the casualty forward
d) Pinching the soft part of the nose and forcing the head upwards

9. Treat a minor cut on the hand at your workplace by

a) Cleaning and stopping the bleeding
b) Find the First Aid box and your gloves
c) Find the accident book
d) Do nothing until help arrives

10. Treat a scalded hand by

a) Putting butter on the burnt area
b) Cool burnt area with water for at least 10 minutes
c) Put flour on the burnt area
d) Put ice on the burnt area

11. To treat a broken leg

a) Get the person to walk to a chair for treatment
b) Get the person to move the leg to check if broken
c) If possible, keep the person still until the ambulance comes
d) Practice and experiment with splinting techniques while waiting for the ambulance

12. The main reason that the recovery position is used for unconscious casualties is in order to

a) Keep the back straight
b) Prevent the casualty vomiting
c) To make it easier to monitor their condition
d) To keep the airways clear

13. Since November 2005, resuscitation guidelines have recommended compressions and inflations at a ratio of

a) 10:2
b) 30:2
c) 1:5
d) 5:1

14. A bang on the head requires a medical check if

a) The casualty vomits
b) The casualty is disorientated
c) The casualty has blurred vision
d) All of the above

15. To help a choking adult casualty

a) Ask them to cough, then slap on the back x 5, abdominal, thrusts x 5. Repeat as necessary
b) Perform abdominal thrusts immediately, as no time to waste
c) Reassure them and call for help
d) Do not move them until help arrives

16. If you think a person has swallowed 16 tablets

a) Walk them up and down to keep them awake
b) Quickly make them sick
c) Take them by car to hospital
d) Keep them still and call an ambulance


Answers [highlight to see]
1 [d], 2 [c], 3 [b], 4 [b], 5 (c), 6 (a), 7 (b), 8 (c), 9 (a), 10 (b), 11 (c), 12 (d), 13 (b), 14 (d), 15 (a), 16 (d).

Further 1, 2

[barefoot doctors] primary health care


This was more than a little interesting about the state of medicine in China when the communists came to power on the backs of the peasantry:

With trained doctors in short supply, the central government in 1951 decided that basic healthcare in the countryside should be provided by health workers rather than by fully trained physicians. In 1957, there were more than 200,000 such "village doctors" whose administration was under the responsibility of the local authorities.

While these village doctors had received only basic training and could not treat complicated cases, their impact was considerable and especially so in preventing minor ills or wounds from developing into complex medical problems and in implementing nation-wide vaccination campaigns.

After the cultural revolution, they were allowed to upgrade to be local village doctors but then:

The rural health system started to collapse in the late 1970s and early 1980s as a result of China's economic liberalization and the privatization of agriculture ... many diseases that had been eradicated re-emerged in the countryside.

Primary care, even in the cities, is almost non-existent and with no independent doctors or neighborhood clinics, people have to go to hospitals even for simple healthcare needs.

With hospitals told to finance their own costs and 79% of the population having no health insurance, the burden on the average Chinese is considerable, with the result that many simply cannot afford any healthcare at all.

Primary care in the UK is eerily reminiscent of the Chinese situation:

The NHS inherited a maldistribution of resources, especially in London. where the main hospitals were concentrated in the centre of the city. London's lack of adequate primary care coverage and over-reliance on hospitals for treatment have created recurring problems.

The Labour government in the 1970s attempted to redress the balance by transferring resources from hospital care to primary care, limiting the growth of better served regions, and favouring the development of some underfunded specialties, like medicine for the elderly. This led to hospital closures. The policy was continued by the Conservatives in the 1980s.

As a person who doesn't use the health services [touch wood], I can't comment on how bad it is in the UK but it doesn't seem to be running much better than in China.

[restrategizing] this blog in the coming weeks

Many bloggers don't feel the need to explain but I'd prefer to, if only for the benefit of friends who check in here to see if things are all right.

I've been right in the middle, since last Friday, of the process of shifting house and a couple of job nibbles have come up, meaning train travel. The effect on the blog is unfortunate.

While I still have substantial internet access these few days, there'll be some posts of the kind readers know but more erratic this week. Sometime this weekend it's going to change and until BT or whoever give me a connection, it's going to be from the library for the hour they let you have. The new connection won't be for some weeks as there are other priorities like getting house things in, so this might even run up to my birthday.

Visiting fellow bloggers is going to be the main problem. Posts can be pre-prepared and put up in a couple of minutes but visits take time and my blogroll is long. My priority order is going to be to visit the most regularly interactive with this blog, mybloglog visitors, sitemeter referrals, Bloghounds and then the main and second lists. Aim is to get round to the latter once a week and the main people every day.

Can't see any other way to do it but at least the blog won't be dead.

[cheerful news] if you're a favoured bank

This was interesting to me on the personal level:

Bank of America (BAC.N) is close to receiving billions of dollars of support from the U.S. government as it tries to digest Merrill Lynch, the investment bank and brokerage it bought on January 1. Merrill has billions in troubled assets -- ranging from commercial real estate to subprime mortgages -- that suffered during the brutal fourth quarter.

Isn't that nice? So now the taxpayer over there is expected to shell out for some takeover, merger or other corporate move its directors decide on. The bank can move with impunity, knowing they're going to be "bailed out" along the way.

It would be nice to have a business where the government takes such a kindly interest in my welfare rather than slug me for every dollar/pound they can get their hands on.

And what of Mandy's £20bn? Favoured sons, eh?

By the way, the "personal level" was referring to when I went for a position and we were assured that BOA was the safest bank in the world. Is that right? Doesn't need a bailout then, does it?

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

[ambience] would you wander around central town at night

Should be rocking - instead, nothing


The bulk of the day was spent in town and it brought some things home with a vengeance.

The area is well planned. We have Asda, Tesco, Aldi and carparking space for anyone. The arcade is sane, with shops people would actually want to buy from and the sprinkling of coffee concessions are enough. Asda has a nice caf too.

On the other side of the complex are the high street banks, solicitors, estate agents and so on. And don't forget the market and other supermarkets. Truly, anything you need is in here and not at an exorbitant price. It's not spread out but contained within a walkable distance. It really feels nice in there during the day.

So it all looks roses, yes?

Well, on paper, maybe. What is not immediately apparent though is that the council, in wanting to become local letting agents and landlords, have shrunk the market area and dictate what can and can't be sold, have exorbitant pay and display parking fees and avid parking officers who jump at writing tickets to slug the motorist crazy enough to venture into the shopping area.

My mate said that the market area used to be far bigger but the council couldn't control that completely so all market stalls were brought within a purpose built barn area, complete with those metal roller garage doors which come clattering down at 6 p.m. on the dot and open again at 9 the next morning. The area is dead between those hours.

No one wants to park there during the day, especially with a shopping park not so far away with free parking, no one wants to have the doors closed on them late afternoon and there is nothing but Asda to take you into the centre of town in the evening. Asda apparently begged the council not to charge for parking but the council weren't interested - there were pound signs in the eyes.

I wandered through the market last Friday, the day when they get their greatest number of people and the main stalls at the front with the food concessions etc. were lightly visited but the stalls further towards the back, which cost £30 a day - they were totally empty. Not a sausage. Apparently the by-laws and fees have surgically incised any desire on any potential vendor's part to sell what you're told you may in that place.

It's estimated that it is not the economic crisis, it is council action and Gordo's laws which have resulted in only about 60% of the projected numbers visiting the centre of town, the council therefore making a substantial loss and having made it, refusing to change its policy, believing that better times are round the corner.

Russia

I'm hesitant to put the Russkies up as a positive comparison, as much of what they touch turns to ashes but compare the two approaches in this.

In our town in Russia, Moscow money came in and wanted to set up a complex, a shopping village. All right, they built an Imax, various other things and then the main shopping centre on two stories, very modest. So, late evening, being a bit bored with tele at home, you could, for example, take your car down there, park for free and approach this broad brass and glass entrance way.

Immediately inside, on the left, is a giant DVD, CD and video lending and buying shop. On the right is a Japanese sushi bar which has international cuisine, graded from an excusive part to the cafe type part. Further along the ceramic tiled foyer are the fast food concessions, including pizza, tables and chairs, a two cinema area with the latest releases, ten pin bowling, a bar, a coffee shop and a late night supermarket. Up the stairs are the boutiques and flea markets.

The place is warm and welcoming and not only that, it has the main hockey stadium and skating rink nearby and is served by a four laned road bridge from the other side of town. The place rocks.

Now I come back to our town over here. For what, apart from taking the car to the chippy and back, would anyone want to go down there at night for? For what would you want to stroll about with your better half? Where are the shop windows to look in, with their inventive displays? Where are the early evening kids amusement places?

Where's the ambience? There's about as much ambience as a caravan park or an airport.

And why is this so? Because the people in charge, who make the rules about who can be where and what they can sell are local government, not businessmen, not entrepeneurs. Why, oh why, are these people in charge?

[litter] a symptom of deeper issues


Not sure if reducing litter and graffiti reduce serious crime but IMHO, there is a correlation between rubbish on the streets, graffiti and a sick society, at least at the micro-level.

Of course many are sick of it and want campaigns like this:

Keep Britain Tidy have launched a renewed campaign to clean up the UK's dirty streets to coincide with the first anti-litter act exactly 50 years ago to this month. It aims to restore a sense of community pride and encourage everyone to clean up their patch. Across the nation, community groups, schools and businesses have pledged support. It's hoped more than 10,000 clean-ups will take place and half a million bags of litter collected.

It's not just the rotting fish head effect which leads to the conclusion that "a sense of civic pride is doomed", i.e. if the head's rotten, the rest follows suit. It's also people's change in values over the past two generations, since the 50s. This blog has consistently maintained that the Christian ethic was certainly not followed in past decades but at least it existed and kids at least knew about the sermon on the mount and the ideals they were supposed to live up to.

The gospels have no monopoly on charity and kindness but they were a major force in limiting people's excesses on a day to day basis in this society. Someone said to me yesterday: "If you found a million pounds on the street, would you hand it in?"

Today - I'm not so sure. If you did, you're likely to be subject to investigation, acquire a police record and will be under surveillance from there on in. You'd not get any reward for your altruism. In the late 60s, I'd probably have handed it in and something nice might have come from that act.

You can't expect people to act with dignity if they're robbed of it but this is a two way street. Whilst the government's policies have been criminally negligent, the societal attitude of "why should I work when no one cares and I'm drawing tax-payer's money to keep me in this lifestyle" is equally culpable.

Just removing benefits is not going to achieve anything other than starvation in the short term. It certainly was the case five years back that you could have found work if you really tried, if you retrained but that is not the case now. Even with your worthless NVQ, there are 500 applicants for every position you go for.

Frankly, I find it galling to hear politicians and civic groups calling for civic pride, as if it is something which exists outside of the context of society. It's the same, to me, as that annoying song "don't worry, be happy", sung to someone who's just lost his job. In that glib cliche is lack of understanding and lack of caring.

The permanent and cynically unemployed underclass, including many single mothers and Rab C Nesbitts who consider society should be supporting them is also balanced by a new class of people today really wanting the dignity of their skills set recognized but literally unable to get anyone to take them on.

Mandelson's £20bn to stop businesses going to the wall should have been injected years back when there was still some real money in the economy. £5mn is a small business? This is just a cynical ploy for the collapsing infrastructure of medium and large business. Small entrepeneurship is already dead in the water.

Step One - get these bstds out. Step Two - Cameron gets rid of adversarial politics and creates an assembly style legislature, with him at the top if he likes [for now]. Step Three - cut the crippling taxes but at the same time educate people that their lifestyle is going to change, to contract, in line with their real incomes.

[from russia with love] on the ground today


Report just in from Russia through friends and the dollar looks to be 31,56 [artificially held], there's snow on the ground and the mood is depressed. The Ukraine/Russia thing seems to be the fault of both, according to my sources.

Local issue - the mad plan for closing bridges and rerouting traffic through the remaining two arteries into the city seems to have been dropped for lack of money so the crisis does have a silver lining. My favourite trams are almost phased out in favour of the soulless buses. Big stores [equivalent to Asda] are doing well but lesser stores not.

There's a lot of business going on at the upper levels but they're trying to prevent a repetition of the payments crisis and no one wants to return to the bad old days. People are digging in and hoping to keep their jobs.

So, not a lot different to over here in Britain, it seems.

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

[boycott] one of the few legal weapons


There's a lesson in this for Britain and the U.S.

Thousands of motorists have fled the Sydney Harbour Bridge after its cash booths were removed last weekend [choosing] to find alternative routes into the city after the Harbour Bridge moved to fully electronic tolling on Sunday, Roads and Traffic Authority figures reveal. Road experts say it is because many motorists have refused to buy an electronic tag, and, in the short term, the trend is likely to worsen.

There are very few specific ways for citizens to show great displeasure with the tag and control society in all three countries but the Aussies at least have one now where they can show their feelings. It will be interesting whether boycotts also start in Britain on the more iniquitous new laws and procedures.

[polo lingo] the art of the puerile

"Ugggggh!"

"Take that, Sooty."

[black cap] better on the head

You know those very weird moments when you lose something and it turns up in a completely unexpected place?

Just happened.

We went shopping and stopped off for chish 'n fips and I took off my black cap in the chippie and put it in my pocket but realized it was a bit loose in there. Never mind. Got back in the car with the packets and away we went. Back home, we unloaded the car, put everything away and made ready to watch a film.

I took the jacket off and put it on the chair and that's when I realized the cap had gone. I checked the pocket it had been in, checked the other, checked inside the jacket, checked outside and followed the trail back to the car, checked inside the car where I'd been - nothing.

Not a sausage. Deep gloom.

That cap has a history. It's been with me in Russia for over a decade, to many other countries and it has a history of being lost and turning up in very strange places. It was lost in Sicily last time and turned up on a stone wall.

After the film now, I was made an offer - you want to go down to the shop again - it might be in the gutter, the cap. Nah, it'll be gone. No, let's go. OK, went to put my jacket on and the cap was in the end of the sleeve.

Go figure.

Monday, January 12, 2009

[popularity] the fickleness of a nation

Unpopularity

When you're out of favour, you're really out of favour.

Former PM John Howard lost his seat as well as the election for the party. Then came the Barack Obama tiff over Blair House.

Now it's a flight of passengers angry that they had to wait because John Howard was on the flight. I think this is completely unfair on the man. Australians made their feelings known at the election but that's no reason not to accord a former PM, of whichever party, the dignity of ordinary protocols.

There is a military protocol that when you salute, you are not saluting the man, you're saluting the rank and the station. It should be the same here.

This is not to say he should be accorded personal respect - I think he should - but he should be accorded dignity, just as all should be according to their roles and achievements.

PC madness

In Oz, "the reign of exclusive clubs offering men-only admission to their influential ranks may soon be over. Victoria's Attorney-General, Rob Hulls, has signalled he would favour putting an end to protections that allow private clubs to be excluded from equal opportunity laws."

Can you imagine one of those feminist covens at seats of higher learning, where they decide which texts to rewrite next, being enforced under that law? Equal opportunities is one of the most abused laws in Britain and Australia and it's in the hands of entirely the wrong people to "positively discriminate" towards the wrong people and against the indigenous citizen.

Look, if I want to be in a club for all men or if a ladyfriend wants an all girl club membership, then why the hell not? What business is it of government?

Housekeeping

I don't want to run a separate post but I'm looking to close the deal on a house tomorrow and that's taking time. There are many negatives such as it being a long way out of town and in the middle of ongoing building around the area plus some other down things. What it does have is a good sea view, is new and it's quite snug.

Sunday, January 11, 2009

[water] and the middle-east


Putting aside military action, oil and gas for now, a good indicator of whether there is any form of cooperation in the middle-east can be seen through water.

Israel's main water supplies come from:

Long-term Potential of Renewable Water
Resource Replenishable Quantities

(MCM/year)
The Coastal Aquifer 320
The Mountain Aquifer 370
Lake Kinneret 700
Additional Regional Resources 410
Total Average 1,800

A look at the mountain aquifers and Lake Kinneret [follow links] show that these are not without their problems and the coastal aquifer is similarly environmentally and politically fraught. Also Israeli and Syrian intransigence towards one another has to be counterbalanced against pure need in the region.

Non-conventional Water Resources and Conservation After drawing on nearly all of its readily available water resources and promoting vigorous conservation programs, Israel has long made it a national mission to stretch existing sources by developing non-conventional water sources, while promoting conservation.

These efforts have focused on the following: reclaimed wastewater effluents; intercepted runoff and artificial recharge; artificially-induced rainfall - cloud seeding; and desalination.

Naturally, that is not sufficient and so Israeli long term strategy includes:

# The construction of desalination plants with an installed annual capacity of 400 MCM for seawater and with an annual 50 MCM capacity for brackish water.
# The rehabilitation of polluted and depleted wells with an annual total yield of up to 50 MCM.
# The importation from Turkey of an annual quantity of 50 MCM fresh water.
# To increase the amounts of treated sewage effluents suitable for for irrigation up to 500 MCM.

Turkey-Israeli trade is an indicative factor which adds to the mix:

Turkey and Israel are trade partners thanks to the geographical proximity, the good ties and the friendship, in 2007 Turkey [becoming] Israel's 8th largest trade partner ... based on a Free Trade Area agreement signed in 1997 [allowing] free circulation of trade between the two countries.

[By] 2007 the volume of the bilateral trade had reached a new record of almost three billions US dollars and in the first nine months of 2008 [it had] increased [by] more than 30% ... compared to 2007. The Israeli and Turkish navies have conducted joint exercises, there is a plan to build a massive pipeline from Turkey to supply water, electricity, gas and oil to Israel.

Egypt has a domestic need to publicly growl at Israel and to facilitate weapons through Gaza and yet they have common interests in some ways and are "not opposed" to a joint water project:

Several countries have contributed $15 million for the multipurpose Red-Dead canal project's feasibility study and environmental assessment. French company Coyne et Bellier is currently carrying out the feasibility study for the project, while the British firm Environmental Resources Management is undertaking the environmental assessment.

Meanwhile, Israeli Infrastructure Minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer, who headed his country's delegation to the water conference, said the "Peace Canal" project could benefit the entire Middle East.

He noted that Jordan's share of desalinated water under the project will be 65 per cent while 35 per cent will go to Israel and the West Bank. The project is expected to provide Jordan with 500 million cubic metres (mcm) of water annually.


The Red-Dead canal project is part of international efforts to save the Dead Sea, which has been shrinking at the rate of one metre per year, largely due to the diversion of water from the Jordan River for agricultural and industrial use.

Ditto with gas:


The protocol signed between Egypt and Israel in 2005 under which Israel imports Egyptian natural gas at a fraction of the cost on international markets provoked reactions that went beyond words. The opposition appealed to the courts and earlier this month the Supreme Administrative Court ruled that the pumping of gas to Israel be stopped.

The government has not only refused to implement the decision but in doing so acted so hastily that it effectively undermined its own position in ongoing negotiations with Israel to secure a fairer price.Looking at it dispassionately, there is a joint problem here of expertise and the ready cash.

A 1997 article said:


For the most part, Egypt's desert reclamation attempts have been environmental and technical failures. Typically these Nile diversion projects are very expensive and the economic returns are minimal. Moreover, investments currently spent on desert reclamation could be put to better use in the fertile delta area.

Sorely needed are drainage systems to save the lands that are currently being lost to salinization and to the rise of the underground water table (a side effect of the High Aswan Dam).

While there is an obvious need for water-sharing arrangements, Israel remains a large per capita consumer, due to the lifestyle expectations of its westernized citizens. An anti-Israeli article says:

In spite of the positive publicity that Israel has received for its water sharing agreements with Jordan and with the Palestinians, Israel's share of area waters as a result of their agreements with the Arabs will be reduced marginally if at all, while the Arabs' share will be increased by only a relatively tiny amount.

American money is also a factor with the big players and can't be sneezed at.

Both biblically and strategically, the Tigris and Euphrates loom as a major factor, certainly for Iran's plans for expansion and a reliving of their ancient glory:

Turkey constructed the first major dam of the basin, commissioning the Keban Dam in 1973, with Syria soon following suit with the Tabqa Dam in 1975. The filling of these dams caused a sharp decrease in downstream flow, causing Iraq and Syria to exchange mutually hostile accusations and come dangerously close to a military confrontation.

The implications of the Turkish GAP projects are clear:

Given their position on the two rivers upstream from Syria and Iraq, the GAP projects, in particular, the Ilisu dam, have provoked concern in Damascus and Baghdad that the project, when completed, will substantially reduce the rivers’ total volume of downstream flow.

According to an official in Iraq's Water Resources Ministry, when Ilisu is completed in 2011, it will reduce the Tigris River waters by 47 per cent a year, depriving Mosul of about 50 percent of its summer water requirements (Al-Sabah, July 3).

Iraq annually requires about 50 billion cubic meters of water, with the Tigris providing 60 percent and the Euphrates the remaining 40 percent.

With Turkey angling for EU membership and major powers taking an interest in this, the American and European factors in the region cannot be ignored.

The simple fact is that the major local players in the region have to confront realpolitik, that sustenance and prosperity for each party depends on at least minimal levels of trade agreement and this forever undermines religious tensions at street and holy house level.

The world from the Minister of Trade's office where I put in a few hours each week for a few years was a different world to that perceived on the street. There is a level of realism at the sub-elite level which contrasts with the ideological madness at the elite level [the backers of governments and the king-makers] and the common factor is bilateral trade.


Put simply, there must be trade and on the question of essential resources, e.g. water, if there is much politicking then there is little ideology present at negotiations. It is out and out need. I put the opinion to the Minister last year that if the world could be governed by trade considerations, it would go a long way to normalizing relations.

He smiled a smile which spoke volumes - that it would be very nice, yes but that other parties considered there were higher political considerations.

As population increases, mismanagement continues and the west is present on the ground in the middle-east, water will increasingly become the catalyst for a real deterioration, a real slide in relations:

Facing historical, psychological and political barriers that have impeded cooperation and deadlocked diplomacy, nations in the region are sliding toward conflict over water. Water’s growing role in the emerging hydropolitics of the region has stressed the need for a new approach to safeguard this diminishing resource.
And into the whole cocktail can be mixed the religious factor:

Religious disagreements inside Jerusalem can get ugly, and invariably reverberate around the monotheistic world. Ultra-orthodox Jews have spat on Christian pilgrims visiting the stations of the cross on the Via Dolorosa, and Muslim clerics have screamed vitriolic threats at Uri Ariel, a Knesset member intent on testing Islamic tolerance by announcing plans to re-erect a synagogue beside the 7th-century silver-domed al-Aqsa mosque. Provocatively, he affirmed his commitment by pacing out the construction site with a posse of armed guards.

What to do? What can anyone do. Pray for eventual peace? Implement more efficient irrigation and water-supply techniques using shared technology in a stabilized middle-east with nutter groups like Hamas marginalized and where realpolitik reigns?