Saturday, June 27, 2009

[iran election anomalies] could it be in the digits

Interesting stuff from Bruce Alderman:

Political scientists Bernd Beber and Alexandra Scacco have found some peculiarities in the Iran election results. While many people around the world are questioning the validity of the results, Beber and Scacco have gone a step further and looked at some statistical anomalies.

Beber and Scacco looked at the final digit of the results from each province for the top four candidates, and found two anomalies. Since there are ten possible digits, we would expect each number 0 - 9 to appear in about 10 percent of all the precinct totals, give or take a few percentage points due to random variability.

The statistical anomalies continue and then they conclude:

[W]e would expect to see results like this in only one of every two hundred fair elections.

3 comments:

jams o donnell said...

there's no doubt in my mind the election was rigged. Events following the election only show the brutality of the regime.

The only possible ray of light is that a huge chunk of the population do not believe a word they say. Once the country goes down the toilet economically then there could be a lot more trouble

Welshcakes Limoncello said...

Don't understand - it's maths!

James Higham said...

Jams - that is the only hope, yes. But what can they do?

Welshcakes - never to late to learn.