I wish we could get some hard information. James Cleverly said, a few days ago: I questioned the result of a Mori poll which put Gordon Brown ahead of David Cameron; it just didn't fit with anything that I am hearing on the doorstep. It seems from this Guardian poll I wasn't wrong. Today the Telegraph is running with: David Cameron has moved decisively ahead of Gordon Brown as favourite to lead the next government. It would have to be so. One’s gut instinct says it will be Cameron.